[JohnR34231]

[quote author=JPRI link=topic=18364.msg218453#msg218453 date=1513511167]
[quote author=VFRing98 link=topic=18364.msg218432#msg218432 date=1513469776]
The guy has already thrown a zillion passes against all kinds of defenses. 35 more against a crap team aren’t gonna show anything more than what’s already been shown.

I’m not advocating he sit out. I’m just saying any GM who is waiting on a bowl game to decide on Rosen seems misguided. Or lost.

I would tend to agree. If a GM still has questions about Rosen, I'm not sure how he performs in a minor bowl game against a weak defense will (or at least should) clear them up.

Here's an article on the trend of NFL hopefuls sitting out what they consider to be minor bowl games to avoid the risk of injury.

http://newsok.com/dont-blame-connor-will...le/5576265
[/quote]

I disagree completely, and I don't think you understand the point I'm trying to make.  GMs don't assess quarterbacks in a vacuum, they assess QBs against each other, AND in context.  Recency counts.

The first point is that this is a quarterback-heavy draft.  From the Pac-12 alone, you have Darnold, Rosen, Falk and Browning.  Browning hasn't had a great year, but his rating last year eclipses all of the pac-12 QBs.  His bowl game will be important.  Falk had the worst rating of his four years, but decent in the pac-12.  A great game against Michigan State could really elevate his stock.  Darnold was the best in the Pac-12. 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/con...conference

The second point is that Rosen isn't all that great by the numbers across the QB skills.  Outside of the Pac-12, you have    winner Mayfield and a host of other strong quarterbacks.  In fact, Rosen is ranked #41 using ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating calculator.

http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr

Purely as a passer, Rosen is still #26 in the NCAA:  http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/c...dividual/8

The third point is that Rosen doesn't bounce back well from injuries.  Against Washington, he had a concussion as he was sacked four times in the first half.  He had a cut on his left (non-throwing) hand that same game, and he played between poor and mediocre for a month after that.  His last two games against U$C and Ca.l he returned to form.  Prior to the injuries, he was leading the conference in every passing category.  He also missed the final six games of 2016 with a shoulder injury.  UCLA went 1-5 in that span, indicating the importance of Rosen to the team.  And in his last game against C.al, he was sacked three times in the first half, and was in street clothes in the second half.  If I'm a GM or personnel exec, I have major questions about his durability.

The fourth point is that twenty NFL teams attended the U$C vs. UCLA game, won 28-23 by U$C.  Both QBs showed well, Rosen as a pure pocket passer.  Here's a quote from a personnel exec who attended the game:  "“They’re two different types of quarterbacks.  One’s the pure pocket passer, and that’s Rosen, and Rosen won the duel between the two. Then, you got the improvisation, the Tony Romo type that Darnold is. Things break down, and he makes a play. And that’s what’s great about him, he can do it from pocket, [or] when things break down around him. And Rosen, when he gets time, it’s pretty. Both of them, I’d say, are going to be good players if they go into good situations . . . Get them with good coaches, they have a chance to be special.”  I think there's still room for analysis for both.

The fifth point is that minor variations  among first round draft selections have of exceedingly large proportions impacts on total compensation, purely apart from the prestige of the high draft selection.  If two QBs get taken ahead of Rosen because enough questions have been raised, that has an enormous impact on his draft position and his compensation.

Sixth point is Chip Kelly.  Rosen's a pocket passer, Chip is not a pocket coach.  Be interesting to see the game plan for the Cactus Bowl.

Seventh point is, the media reported two weeks ago that Rosen is expected to play:
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footbal...o2ayvhriuf

A bowl game is a player's last chance to shine in game competition in front of scouts.  Everyone knew that Solomon Thomas was going to be a high draft pick.  Until the Sun Bowl against #45 offense North Carolina when he was named MVP and had seven tackles, five solos, one sack and two tackles for loss.  Until then, no one expected Thomas would be the #3 overall draft pick.  Here was the thinking about Thomas prior to the Bowl game and combine; e.g., most frustrating prospect on the board:

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/4/11/15162...-nfl-draft

Yes, Kansas State is not a world beater, but neither is UCLA.  UCLA is a two- to three-point underdog in the Cactus Bowl (f/k/a the Copper Bowl, the Insight.com bowl, the Insight Bowl, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and finally the Cactus Bowl), and the O/U is 63.5 points, so a shooting match is expected.  Both teams are negative against the spread this year, but UCLA is 4-1-1 on road or neutral turf on the over.

Kansas State's defense is #59 in points given up, and #97 in yards.  UCLA is #122 in yards given up, and #117 in ppg.  This is going to be the shootout's shootout.  The only reason the O/U is so low is because KSU plays a slowdown offense.

Rosen doesn't have to declare for the draft until 1/15/18.  Plenty of time to decide if the bowl game helps or hurts.
[/quote]

OK, that's fine. Most of the draft projections I've seen have Rosen as the first or second pick. Assuming those people know what they are talking about, I suppose he could reinforce that with a great performance or hurt it with a poor one.

[JohnR34231]

[quote author=JPRI link=topic=18364.msg218453#msg218453 date=1513511167]
[quote author=VFRing98 link=topic=18364.msg218432#msg218432 date=1513469776]
The guy has already thrown a zillion passes against all kinds of defenses. 35 more against a crap team aren’t gonna show anything more than what’s already been shown.

I’m not advocating he sit out. I’m just saying any GM who is waiting on a bowl game to decide on Rosen seems misguided. Or lost.

I would tend to agree. If a GM still has questions about Rosen, I'm not sure how he performs in a minor bowl game against a weak defense will (or at least should) clear them up.

Here's an article on the trend of NFL hopefuls sitting out what they consider to be minor bowl games to avoid the risk of injury.

http://newsok.com/dont-blame-connor-will...le/5576265
[/quote]

I disagree completely, and I don't think you understand the point I'm trying to make.  GMs don't assess quarterbacks in a vacuum, they assess QBs against each other, AND in context.  Recency counts.

The first point is that this is a quarterback-heavy draft.  From the Pac-12 alone, you have Darnold, Rosen, Falk and Browning.  Browning hasn't had a great year, but his rating last year eclipses all of the pac-12 QBs.  His bowl game will be important.  Falk had the worst rating of his four years, but decent in the pac-12.  A great game against Michigan State could really elevate his stock.  Darnold was the best in the Pac-12. 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/con...conference

The second point is that Rosen isn't all that great by the numbers across the QB skills.  Outside of the Pac-12, you have    winner Mayfield and a host of other strong quarterbacks.  In fact, Rosen is ranked #41 using ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating calculator.

http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr

Purely as a passer, Rosen is still #26 in the NCAA:  http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/c...dividual/8

The third point is that Rosen doesn't bounce back well from injuries.  Against Washington, he had a concussion as he was sacked four times in the first half.  He had a cut on his left (non-throwing) hand that same game, and he played between poor and mediocre for a month after that.  His last two games against U$C and Ca.l he returned to form.  Prior to the injuries, he was leading the conference in every passing category.  He also missed the final six games of 2016 with a shoulder injury.  UCLA went 1-5 in that span, indicating the importance of Rosen to the team.  And in his last game against C.al, he was sacked three times in the first half, and was in street clothes in the second half.  If I'm a GM or personnel exec, I have major questions about his durability.

The fourth point is that twenty NFL teams attended the U$C vs. UCLA game, won 28-23 by U$C.  Both QBs showed well, Rosen as a pure pocket passer.  Here's a quote from a personnel exec who attended the game:  "“They’re two different types of quarterbacks.  One’s the pure pocket passer, and that’s Rosen, and Rosen won the duel between the two. Then, you got the improvisation, the Tony Romo type that Darnold is. Things break down, and he makes a play. And that’s what’s great about him, he can do it from pocket, [or] when things break down around him. And Rosen, when he gets time, it’s pretty. Both of them, I’d say, are going to be good players if they go into good situations . . . Get them with good coaches, they have a chance to be special.”  I think there's still room for analysis for both.

The fifth point is that minor variations  among first round draft selections have of exceedingly large proportions impacts on total compensation, purely apart from the prestige of the high draft selection.  If two QBs get taken ahead of Rosen because enough questions have been raised, that has an enormous impact on his draft position and his compensation.

Sixth point is Chip Kelly.  Rosen's a pocket passer, Chip is not a pocket coach.  Be interesting to see the game plan for the Cactus Bowl.

Seventh point is, the media reported two weeks ago that Rosen is expected to play:
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footbal...o2ayvhriuf

A bowl game is a player's last chance to shine in game competition in front of scouts.  Everyone knew that Solomon Thomas was going to be a high draft pick.  Until the Sun Bowl against #45 offense North Carolina when he was named MVP and had seven tackles, five solos, one sack and two tackles for loss.  Until then, no one expected Thomas would be the #3 overall draft pick.  Here was the thinking about Thomas prior to the Bowl game and combine; e.g., most frustrating prospect on the board:

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/4/11/15162...-nfl-draft

Yes, Kansas State is not a world beater, but neither is UCLA.  UCLA is a two- to three-point underdog in the Cactus Bowl (f/k/a the Copper Bowl, the Insight.com bowl, the Insight Bowl, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and finally the Cactus Bowl), and the O/U is 63.5 points, so a shooting match is expected.  Both teams are negative against the spread this year, but UCLA is 4-1-1 on road or neutral turf on the over.

Kansas State's defense is #59 in points given up, and #97 in yards.  UCLA is #122 in yards given up, and #117 in ppg.  This is going to be the shootout's shootout.  The only reason the O/U is so low is because KSU plays a slowdown offense.

Rosen doesn't have to declare for the draft until 1/15/18.  Plenty of time to decide if the bowl game helps or hurts.
[/quote]

OK, that's fine. Most of the draft projections I've seen have Rosen as the first or second pick. Assuming those people know what they are talking about, I suppose he could reinforce that with a great performance or hurt it with a poor one.