[Mick]

[quote author=Mick link=topic=18364.msg218367#msg218367 date=1513438431]
[quote author=Langdude link=topic=18364.msg218316#msg218316 date=1513367979]
[quote author=JPRI link=topic=18364.msg218313#msg218313 date=1513367065]
Interesting that Josh Rosen, who many seem to think is a self-centered jerk, has said he is looking forward to playing one more game with his teammates, even though he may well be the first QB picked in the draft.

Say what you want about that dude, but he loves to compete.

-m.
[/quote]

Kansas State has the #97 ranked NCAA defense, giving up 432 yards per game.  I imagine Josh is going to have a monster day.

We know he loves to compete, and we know that he's a first round draft pick.  At that level, every incremental pick is worth a lot of money.  The total contract of the first selection was $30.427 mms.  Each succeeding pick in the first five was about $1 mms. less than the others over the life of the contract, then a $3 mms. drop to #6, and another $2.5 mms. drop to #7 and a $2 mms. drop to #8 (CMAC).  The #10 selection got $16 mms., the #32 selection got roughly half of that.

I imagine Rosen wants to be in the top 1/3 very badly.  UCLA's passing offense is ranked fifth in the country behind (in order) Okla St, Wash St., Oklahoma (and Mayfield) and New Mexico.

Rosen's body of work this year was amazing.  No way he drops out of the first round.  But where he goes in the first round?  That's up to the GMs who will be watching his bowl game very closely.
[/quote]

Do you really think GMs need a bowl game, or another game, to assess Rosen?

If his opponent’s pass defense is as bad as the stats indicate, the bowl game will illuminate nothing about his NFL potential.
[/quote]

Yes I do, for three reasons:

1)  In the latter half of the season, Rosen had poor games against Arizona (19.8 AQBR) and Washington (41.4) and a game in which he didn't play.  His best game by far was  the second game of the season against Hawaii, which almost doesn't count.  He did well in his last two games, a 79.2 against USC, and a 74.0 against Ca.l.  He's thrown 9 TDs and 2 INTs in the last five games of the season; in the first seven games, he was 17 and 8.  He still doesn't have an annual AQBR as high as his freshman year (68.4).  He took a dip last year into the high 50s, and is now a 67.2.  If you go by flat, traditional quarterback rating (versus the ESPN numbers that I referred to earlier), Rosen is the #30 rated QB, and Mayfield is #1, and there's at least a dozen Power 5 QBs in between them.  So if I'm a GM, I wonder how much upside there is.  I probably wonder less if he blows the doors off in a bowl game.

2)  Supposedly, Rosen has been assessed as a first round draft choice.  He's not injured.  If he decides to sit out against the 95th ranked defense, those GMs may question his credentials.

3)  While I agree that the combine is terrific for receivers and running backs, the way a QB handles himself in a game is critically important.  The GMs will judge Rosen far more on his game performance.  For example, he's been sacked 26 times this season, almost as much as the last two seasons combined (13 and 15). 

I think Rosen needs to clear up a lot of questions, and this is his opportunity.  I don't think Bryce needs to clear up any questions at all.

[Mick]

[quote author=Mick link=topic=18364.msg218367#msg218367 date=1513438431]
[quote author=Langdude link=topic=18364.msg218316#msg218316 date=1513367979]
[quote author=JPRI link=topic=18364.msg218313#msg218313 date=1513367065]
Interesting that Josh Rosen, who many seem to think is a self-centered jerk, has said he is looking forward to playing one more game with his teammates, even though he may well be the first QB picked in the draft.

Say what you want about that dude, but he loves to compete.

-m.
[/quote]

Kansas State has the #97 ranked NCAA defense, giving up 432 yards per game.  I imagine Josh is going to have a monster day.

We know he loves to compete, and we know that he's a first round draft pick.  At that level, every incremental pick is worth a lot of money.  The total contract of the first selection was $30.427 mms.  Each succeeding pick in the first five was about $1 mms. less than the others over the life of the contract, then a $3 mms. drop to #6, and another $2.5 mms. drop to #7 and a $2 mms. drop to #8 (CMAC).  The #10 selection got $16 mms., the #32 selection got roughly half of that.

I imagine Rosen wants to be in the top 1/3 very badly.  UCLA's passing offense is ranked fifth in the country behind (in order) Okla St, Wash St., Oklahoma (and Mayfield) and New Mexico.

Rosen's body of work this year was amazing.  No way he drops out of the first round.  But where he goes in the first round?  That's up to the GMs who will be watching his bowl game very closely.
[/quote]

Do you really think GMs need a bowl game, or another game, to assess Rosen?

If his opponent’s pass defense is as bad as the stats indicate, the bowl game will illuminate nothing about his NFL potential.
[/quote]

Yes I do, for three reasons:

1)  In the latter half of the season, Rosen had poor games against Arizona (19.8 AQBR) and Washington (41.4) and a game in which he didn't play.  His best game by far was  the second game of the season against Hawaii, which almost doesn't count.  He did well in his last two games, a 79.2 against USC, and a 74.0 against Ca.l.  He's thrown 9 TDs and 2 INTs in the last five games of the season; in the first seven games, he was 17 and 8.  He still doesn't have an annual AQBR as high as his freshman year (68.4).  He took a dip last year into the high 50s, and is now a 67.2.  If you go by flat, traditional quarterback rating (versus the ESPN numbers that I referred to earlier), Rosen is the #30 rated QB, and Mayfield is #1, and there's at least a dozen Power 5 QBs in between them.  So if I'm a GM, I wonder how much upside there is.  I probably wonder less if he blows the doors off in a bowl game.

2)  Supposedly, Rosen has been assessed as a first round draft choice.  He's not injured.  If he decides to sit out against the 95th ranked defense, those GMs may question his credentials.

3)  While I agree that the combine is terrific for receivers and running backs, the way a QB handles himself in a game is critically important.  The GMs will judge Rosen far more on his game performance.  For example, he's been sacked 26 times this season, almost as much as the last two seasons combined (13 and 15). 

I think Rosen needs to clear up a lot of questions, and this is his opportunity.  I don't think Bryce needs to clear up any questions at all.