[Goose]

A lot of the fourth down success data is extrapolated from third down data.  That’s imperfect but gives you an idea of the likelihood of success.

BC

I would argue it is very imperfect, in fact misleadingly so. On 3rd down you can call plays that are high risk without having to turn the ball over. You can then go for it on 4th down/punt if the bomb/draw/sweep you called on 3rd down doesn't get you the yard. That option doesn't exist on 4th down. It is an entire different ballgame for the defense. They can pretty much discount a lot of possible plays and not defend against them. They can't do that on 3rd down. While it may sound great to throw the bomb on 4th and 1, I don't think many coaches are going to do it. :)

[Goose]

A lot of the fourth down success data is extrapolated from third down data.  That’s imperfect but gives you an idea of the likelihood of success.

BC

I would argue it is very imperfect, in fact misleadingly so. On 3rd down you can call plays that are high risk without having to turn the ball over. You can then go for it on 4th down/punt if the bomb/draw/sweep you called on 3rd down doesn't get you the yard. That option doesn't exist on 4th down. It is an entire different ballgame for the defense. They can pretty much discount a lot of possible plays and not defend against them. They can't do that on 3rd down. While it may sound great to throw the bomb on 4th and 1, I don't think many coaches are going to do it. :)