(08-22-2017, 10:53 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:In recent history, the best predictor of our offensive output has been the number of returning offensive linemen. During down years we were usually replacing 3 or more linemen. In up years, we get 4 or more back. This is the latter case.
BC
Well, the simplest correlation would simply be "odd year = offense good", "even year = offense bad".
One would guess that isn't actually predictive, however.
[The following uses points per drive as an overall measure of quality of offense ... because I like it.]
Under Shaw
2011 - 3.56 ppd/#2Â Â Â Â Â 2 OL return
2012 - 2.08 ppd/#71Â Â Â Â 3 OL return (Yankey switches to LT)
2013 - 2.67 ppd/#30Â Â Â Â 4 OL return
2014 - 2.30 ppd/#50Â Â Â Â 1 OL return
2015 - 3.58 ppd/#2Â Â Â Â Â 4 OL return
2016 - 2.22 ppd/#62Â Â Â Â 2 OL return
2017 - ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?    4 OL return
2011 would be an outlier with respect to the importance of the number of returning OL. Of course that was Luck's final year, and it is possible he had an impact on the overall quality of the offense.