[larkinforever]

The risk-reward calculation just might pencil out on that play.

The weirder ones, I think, are where your team is looking at 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 and your "unexpected"/"surprise"/"break tendencies" play call might reasonably be expected to yield at best only 4 or 5 yards or so, but means, of course, that you're moving away from your bread-and-butter and probably at a fairly high tradeoff in expected conversion percentage.

[larkinforever]

The risk-reward calculation just might pencil out on that play.

The weirder ones, I think, are where your team is looking at 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 and your "unexpected"/"surprise"/"break tendencies" play call might reasonably be expected to yield at best only 4 or 5 yards or so, but means, of course, that you're moving away from your bread-and-butter and probably at a fairly high tradeoff in expected conversion percentage.