[fullmetal]

We may only convert 53% of our third downs if the other 47% of those third downs are third-and-longs where we go for the first down (no matter the yardage required for a first down) and fail.  Maybe if we settled for a 4-yd rush on 3rd and 5 instead of an incomplete 6-yd pass, we would be in a position to win a 4th and 1 situation.  It's hard to tell.

[fullmetal]

We may only convert 53% of our third downs if the other 47% of those third downs are third-and-longs where we go for the first down (no matter the yardage required for a first down) and fail.  Maybe if we settled for a 4-yd rush on 3rd and 5 instead of an incomplete 6-yd pass, we would be in a position to win a 4th and 1 situation.  It's hard to tell.