09-23-2016, 11:53 AM
Well, I did offer a money-back satisfaction guarantee when I set this up, so I'm happy to offer you a refund ;)
In a more serious vein, I set up the rules in advance, and I am loth to switch them midway. When Gauss ran the contest, he did go with absolute error, but given the importance of margin of victory and spread in Vegas, I wanted to make that part of the equation. Moreover, there is still an advantage to getting close on the actual score, since the difference in mean score is also counted. Thus, with the 27-10 final score, someone who guessed 28-11 is at an advantage to someone who guessed 35-18, even though they both got the margin correct. Indeed, someone who guesses 28-9 and is thus two points off on the margin but guessed the mean correctly will score better than the person who guessed 35-18 (who nails the 17-point margin but misses the mean by 8 points). And of course, there is the 10 point bonus for anyone who guesses the exact score.
How about we revisit this a few weeks before next season, and if people feel strongly, I will change next year's contest back to absolute error.
BC
In a more serious vein, I set up the rules in advance, and I am loth to switch them midway. When Gauss ran the contest, he did go with absolute error, but given the importance of margin of victory and spread in Vegas, I wanted to make that part of the equation. Moreover, there is still an advantage to getting close on the actual score, since the difference in mean score is also counted. Thus, with the 27-10 final score, someone who guessed 28-11 is at an advantage to someone who guessed 35-18, even though they both got the margin correct. Indeed, someone who guesses 28-9 and is thus two points off on the margin but guessed the mean correctly will score better than the person who guessed 35-18 (who nails the 17-point margin but misses the mean by 8 points). And of course, there is the 10 point bonus for anyone who guesses the exact score.
How about we revisit this a few weeks before next season, and if people feel strongly, I will change next year's contest back to absolute error.
BC