09-19-2016, 10:46 AM
(09-19-2016, 08:44 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:I like Sagarin's win50 metric, which is, "the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location." Especially since all conferences play a round robin within their division. For the P12N, it is 79.21, which corresponds to roughly the rating that #33 ranked Texas has. With the caveat that Sagarin doesn't have enough data points to "connect" the teams (and thus still relies a bit on pre-season priors), the P12N teams are:
#3 Stanford 92.37 (predictor)
#8 Washington 87.16
#36 Oregon 76.99
#41 WSU 77.30
#53 ×ÉÉ 74.23
#77 Oregon State 67.14
Stanford, Washington, and Oregon seem about right. ×ÉÉ and WSU are probably swapped. Oregon State is probably about right.
BC
And just for fun, predictors for the South:
#14 UCLA, 84.68
#25 Southern Cal, 81.86
#37 Utah, 77.98
#43 Colorado, 77.44
#47 Arizona State, 75.81
#70 Arizona, 68.53
Audaces fortuna iuvat
