[M T]

Since only five players can start, the main question heading into the postseason is two small guards or one. If Tara goes with two, expect McPhee on the bench for the opening tip.

Some 30-game stats:

Min/game -- Thompson, 31. Roberson, 24. McPhee, 17.
Pts/game -- Thompson, 14.4. Roberson, 6.2. McPhee, 6.8.
Reb (total) -- Thompson, 102. Roberson, 67. McPhee, 95.
FTA (total) -- Thompson, 99. Roberson, 37. McPhee, 72.

The last two lines suggest a productive aggressiveness, for a non-big, that in recent years I feel only Toni Kokenis has matched. Which is why I think McPhee should start, probably at the 3 with Samuelson at the 2.

I don't see a downside if Thompson and Roberson stay fresher by sharing the 1.

I'll point out those stats are only looking under the streetlight at the offensive end, and only part of that end. 
Clearly McPhee is out-rebounding Thompson and getting more FTA per playing minute.  But Thompson has many more assists per 40 minutes than McPhee, but also a few more TO per 40 minutes.  None of those measures anything about the defensive end.

If you use the conference games as a proxy for "What are you doing for me now?", Lili has played 509 minutes and scored 198 pts, for 15.6 pts/40 minutes.  Brittany has played 326 minutes and scored 140 points, for 17.2 pts/40 minutes.  (Erica is at 18.8/40 min; Karlie is 11.9/40min).  (Again, this reflects only a portion of the offensive end of the game.)


But that isn't the point.  The point is the team seemed to perform much better without Thompson than they have with her.  The former is a small sample.  The latter is a large sample.    If the game started with Thompson on the bench, it wouldn't be because Thompson was benched, in a pejorative sense;  it would be because Stanford did very well with the other lineup.

I have to say I wondered if a way to have approached the problems Stanford had with the single outstanding player (Chiney) was to put her on the bench to make the other players step up.  Usually that would take some time for the players to figure out their roles.  In this case, Bird stepped right up and started shooting like she's never shot before.  Indeed, everyone was shooting better.  (As one article pointed out, against OSU, Bird had the worst shooting percentage among the starters.)  The defense played super tight with very good switching.  The passes were generally sharper.

Maybe the change of line-up had nothing to do with the improved performance.  Maybe something else changed in their preparation.  Maybe it was the loss of Lili's grandfather and the season-ending injury to Alleyne that made them play like there is no next quarter.  Maybe it was a self-fulfilling dose of confidence.

But the line-up change was the most obvious thing I saw.    If the Oregon schools said they'd like a do-over so we could add Lili into our line-up, I'd decline.

I do think when we see Lili out on the court, she's a talented basketball player, perhaps the most talented on the team.  I don't think the coach's responsibility is to play the most talented players, but to get the best results out of the team each year.

While we use statistics to try to model the players and the game, the players aren't statistics.  Starting the game with Lili on the bench will affect the players, perhaps dramatically.  I actually don't think Tara will do that (but if she did, I wouldn't second guess her).    I'll bet she's using the play of last weekend to instil confidence, and maybe to knock some heads with the idea that maybe they really weren't playing as hard as they thought they were.

On the other hand, I hope she's also positioning the team to be more flexible, and to make it tougher for the other coaches to "Tara" the best player(s) on her team.  (Have I coined a new term?  Nah, I bet someone else has used it before.)


Do you think it has ever happened before, that the ESPNw player of the week had the worst shooting percentage of the starters on her team for one of the games of the week?

[M T]

Since only five players can start, the main question heading into the postseason is two small guards or one. If Tara goes with two, expect McPhee on the bench for the opening tip.

Some 30-game stats:

Min/game -- Thompson, 31. Roberson, 24. McPhee, 17.
Pts/game -- Thompson, 14.4. Roberson, 6.2. McPhee, 6.8.
Reb (total) -- Thompson, 102. Roberson, 67. McPhee, 95.
FTA (total) -- Thompson, 99. Roberson, 37. McPhee, 72.

The last two lines suggest a productive aggressiveness, for a non-big, that in recent years I feel only Toni Kokenis has matched. Which is why I think McPhee should start, probably at the 3 with Samuelson at the 2.

I don't see a downside if Thompson and Roberson stay fresher by sharing the 1.

I'll point out those stats are only looking under the streetlight at the offensive end, and only part of that end. 
Clearly McPhee is out-rebounding Thompson and getting more FTA per playing minute.  But Thompson has many more assists per 40 minutes than McPhee, but also a few more TO per 40 minutes.  None of those measures anything about the defensive end.

If you use the conference games as a proxy for "What are you doing for me now?", Lili has played 509 minutes and scored 198 pts, for 15.6 pts/40 minutes.  Brittany has played 326 minutes and scored 140 points, for 17.2 pts/40 minutes.  (Erica is at 18.8/40 min; Karlie is 11.9/40min).  (Again, this reflects only a portion of the offensive end of the game.)


But that isn't the point.  The point is the team seemed to perform much better without Thompson than they have with her.  The former is a small sample.  The latter is a large sample.    If the game started with Thompson on the bench, it wouldn't be because Thompson was benched, in a pejorative sense;  it would be because Stanford did very well with the other lineup.

I have to say I wondered if a way to have approached the problems Stanford had with the single outstanding player (Chiney) was to put her on the bench to make the other players step up.  Usually that would take some time for the players to figure out their roles.  In this case, Bird stepped right up and started shooting like she's never shot before.  Indeed, everyone was shooting better.  (As one article pointed out, against OSU, Bird had the worst shooting percentage among the starters.)  The defense played super tight with very good switching.  The passes were generally sharper.

Maybe the change of line-up had nothing to do with the improved performance.  Maybe something else changed in their preparation.  Maybe it was the loss of Lili's grandfather and the season-ending injury to Alleyne that made them play like there is no next quarter.  Maybe it was a self-fulfilling dose of confidence.

But the line-up change was the most obvious thing I saw.    If the Oregon schools said they'd like a do-over so we could add Lili into our line-up, I'd decline.

I do think when we see Lili out on the court, she's a talented basketball player, perhaps the most talented on the team.  I don't think the coach's responsibility is to play the most talented players, but to get the best results out of the team each year.

While we use statistics to try to model the players and the game, the players aren't statistics.  Starting the game with Lili on the bench will affect the players, perhaps dramatically.  I actually don't think Tara will do that (but if she did, I wouldn't second guess her).    I'll bet she's using the play of last weekend to instil confidence, and maybe to knock some heads with the idea that maybe they really weren't playing as hard as they thought they were.

On the other hand, I hope she's also positioning the team to be more flexible, and to make it tougher for the other coaches to "Tara" the best player(s) on her team.  (Have I coined a new term?  Nah, I bet someone else has used it before.)


Do you think it has ever happened before, that the ESPNw player of the week had the worst shooting percentage of the starters on her team for one of the games of the week?