[ColoradoTree]

If Obama's nominees get a fair and prompt vote and can't get 50 votes, I won't complain.  But that option, in an unprecedented step, has already been taken off the table by McConnell.

Yeah, that'll depend on who the nominee is.  If Srinivasan (previously confirmed to the DC Circuit 97-0, and lacking an ideological background) can't get 50 votes, then it's clear the system has broken down to the point that no Democratic nominee could get past a Republican Senate this year. 

The Ginsburg and Breyer nominations seem like reasonable reference points here.  In both cases, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), then the ranking member on Judiciary, suggested to President Clinton that Senate Republicans wouldn't object to Ginsburg/Breyer to the same extent they would object to nominees perceived as ideological or who were active politicians (like Mario Cuomo, who Clinton apparently wanted to appoint).  President Clinton, still likely smarting from the beating his Administration had taken over the failed AG nominations of Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood, wanted a smooth confirmation and was inclined to pick a nominee that didn't push the envelope as much as he might have otherwise wanted. 

In a more cooperative world, envoys from Republicans on Judiciary, including the chair, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), would be talking over some names with White House senior staff right now, and a consensus list of confirmable nominees would start to emerge.  In that world, the list might have name on it like Judge Merrick Garland of the DC Circuit (seen as a relatively moderate judge, and at 63, someone a bit older than the "sweet spot" of a new Justice's age in the late 40's or early 50's), Judge Diane Wood of the Seventh Circuit (a pretty mainstream liberal judge who, at 65, would be one of the older nominees in recent years, a point in her favor from the Republican perspective) or Judge Jane Kelly of the Eighth Circuit (a longtime Iowa resident previously championed by Grassley for the Eighth Circuit and confirmed 96-0, gives liberals comfort because she was a longtime federal public defender, and gives conservatives comfort because Grassley loves her she previously clerked for a Reagan appointee on the Eighth Circuit, and has the benefit of being a HLS classmate of President Obama).  And yes, Srinivasan would almost certainly be on that list, too.  Maybe a former prosecutor like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), too.  The Judiciary staffers would also be shooting down some names of possible nominees as either unlikely to be confirmed or likely to undergo a brutal confirmation battle no matter the ultimate outcome. And in the end, we'd get a Democratic nominee that isn't as liberal as the President would ideally like, but still obviously far to the left of Scalia. 

But that's not gonna happen, folks.  The only "consensus" candidate I've seen floated by a Republican was Sen. Orrin Hatch, suggested by Lindsey Graham.  And unless you think President Obama would seriously entertain the idea of nominating a conservative Republican to the Supreme Court, that means no conceivable Democratic nominee is getting confirmed, at least until after the election.  If the nominee ends up being Srinivasan or someone similarly considered a moderate, and if Hillary Clinton wins, I wouldn't be surprised to see Senate Republicans fast-track the nomination through the lame-duck session in order to keep from facing a more liberal Clinton nominee when she's sworn in. 

[ColoradoTree]

If Obama's nominees get a fair and prompt vote and can't get 50 votes, I won't complain.  But that option, in an unprecedented step, has already been taken off the table by McConnell.

Yeah, that'll depend on who the nominee is.  If Srinivasan (previously confirmed to the DC Circuit 97-0, and lacking an ideological background) can't get 50 votes, then it's clear the system has broken down to the point that no Democratic nominee could get past a Republican Senate this year. 

The Ginsburg and Breyer nominations seem like reasonable reference points here.  In both cases, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), then the ranking member on Judiciary, suggested to President Clinton that Senate Republicans wouldn't object to Ginsburg/Breyer to the same extent they would object to nominees perceived as ideological or who were active politicians (like Mario Cuomo, who Clinton apparently wanted to appoint).  President Clinton, still likely smarting from the beating his Administration had taken over the failed AG nominations of Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood, wanted a smooth confirmation and was inclined to pick a nominee that didn't push the envelope as much as he might have otherwise wanted. 

In a more cooperative world, envoys from Republicans on Judiciary, including the chair, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), would be talking over some names with White House senior staff right now, and a consensus list of confirmable nominees would start to emerge.  In that world, the list might have name on it like Judge Merrick Garland of the DC Circuit (seen as a relatively moderate judge, and at 63, someone a bit older than the "sweet spot" of a new Justice's age in the late 40's or early 50's), Judge Diane Wood of the Seventh Circuit (a pretty mainstream liberal judge who, at 65, would be one of the older nominees in recent years, a point in her favor from the Republican perspective) or Judge Jane Kelly of the Eighth Circuit (a longtime Iowa resident previously championed by Grassley for the Eighth Circuit and confirmed 96-0, gives liberals comfort because she was a longtime federal public defender, and gives conservatives comfort because Grassley loves her she previously clerked for a Reagan appointee on the Eighth Circuit, and has the benefit of being a HLS classmate of President Obama).  And yes, Srinivasan would almost certainly be on that list, too.  Maybe a former prosecutor like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), too.  The Judiciary staffers would also be shooting down some names of possible nominees as either unlikely to be confirmed or likely to undergo a brutal confirmation battle no matter the ultimate outcome. And in the end, we'd get a Democratic nominee that isn't as liberal as the President would ideally like, but still obviously far to the left of Scalia. 

But that's not gonna happen, folks.  The only "consensus" candidate I've seen floated by a Republican was Sen. Orrin Hatch, suggested by Lindsey Graham.  And unless you think President Obama would seriously entertain the idea of nominating a conservative Republican to the Supreme Court, that means no conceivable Democratic nominee is getting confirmed, at least until after the election.  If the nominee ends up being Srinivasan or someone similarly considered a moderate, and if Hillary Clinton wins, I wouldn't be surprised to see Senate Republicans fast-track the nomination through the lame-duck session in order to keep from facing a more liberal Clinton nominee when she's sworn in.