[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=14315.msg151565#msg151565 date=1452121196]
I don't think expecting a step down from a high level of play is being pessimistic, it's being realistic. The wild-eyed optimism of most sports fans regarding their own team is, to be frank, stupid. It's a great way to set yourself up for disappointment and ignores the realities of how hard it is to maintain success (and how important luck is to overall success). After every year you should expect regression to the mean, if it doesn't happen, well then that's great. But most of the time it does.

I think the mean for Stanford has risen significantly from what it was 10 years ago. With the way recruiting and coaching have been for the last seven years, I think expecting a regression to the 55% wins of the previous 40 years is pessimistic. I agree that most fans have a clear view of everything they want to see. But, to ignore positive indications of future success isn't wise either. Walt, Buddy, and Tyrone are ancient history now.
[/quote]

Huh? I'm not saying that we should expect to go 5-7 next year, I'm saying that we should expect that the OL probably won't produce an Outland winner and probably won't be quite as dominant. Might they? Sure! They also might be terrible! There's lots of possibilities, but in general when you're talking about sports from one season to the next you should expect some regression to the mean.

OF can, if he wants to, only project the most optimistic scenarios, but I like to think that one thing that separates this board from most fan boards out there is that we don't do that, that we try to look at things reasonably and look at the downside as well as the upside. Because it can happen, or do we forget 2014 so easily? That year we surprised on the downside. This year we surprised on the upside. Most years you have to figure we'll be in the middle. And that goes for every component.

Now, the middle can still be relatively high for all programs. Our reasonable expectation is a lot higher than Oregon State's, and probably the highest in the Pac-12. That doesn't mean that much, though, since that's probably still something like 9 wins, for a good-not-great season. Winning is hard.

[stupac2]

[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=14315.msg151565#msg151565 date=1452121196]
I don't think expecting a step down from a high level of play is being pessimistic, it's being realistic. The wild-eyed optimism of most sports fans regarding their own team is, to be frank, stupid. It's a great way to set yourself up for disappointment and ignores the realities of how hard it is to maintain success (and how important luck is to overall success). After every year you should expect regression to the mean, if it doesn't happen, well then that's great. But most of the time it does.

I think the mean for Stanford has risen significantly from what it was 10 years ago. With the way recruiting and coaching have been for the last seven years, I think expecting a regression to the 55% wins of the previous 40 years is pessimistic. I agree that most fans have a clear view of everything they want to see. But, to ignore positive indications of future success isn't wise either. Walt, Buddy, and Tyrone are ancient history now.
[/quote]

Huh? I'm not saying that we should expect to go 5-7 next year, I'm saying that we should expect that the OL probably won't produce an Outland winner and probably won't be quite as dominant. Might they? Sure! They also might be terrible! There's lots of possibilities, but in general when you're talking about sports from one season to the next you should expect some regression to the mean.

OF can, if he wants to, only project the most optimistic scenarios, but I like to think that one thing that separates this board from most fan boards out there is that we don't do that, that we try to look at things reasonably and look at the downside as well as the upside. Because it can happen, or do we forget 2014 so easily? That year we surprised on the downside. This year we surprised on the upside. Most years you have to figure we'll be in the middle. And that goes for every component.

Now, the middle can still be relatively high for all programs. Our reasonable expectation is a lot higher than Oregon State's, and probably the highest in the Pac-12. That doesn't mean that much, though, since that's probably still something like 9 wins, for a good-not-great season. Winning is hard.