[stupac2]

[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=13568.msg140443#msg140443 date=1447023297]
Stanford controls its own destiny.

I wish I could be confident that you are correct.  However, given the CFP's initial rankings show that all their talk about SOS is just a bunch of BS, I do not share your confidence.
[/quote]

I still don't understand how people can say that the initial rankings meant anything when the team that won the whole damn thing last year started at #16. Literally the only precedent we have is that we're sitting in a good spot. Are there scenarios where we win out and miss out? Probably, I guess, but it can't be very high.

Look at the 538 predictions. If you add up the percentages for us, ND, and Utah (figuring there's no realistic scenario where more than 1 of that set gets in) you're get 72%. I'd have to think that the majority of the remaining 28% is the odds that someone in there drops another game (Utah especially since they have some tough games left), but they don't have individual games so I can't go through it all.

By far the least likely part of our path to the playoff is winning out. If we can pull that off, we'll be in really good shape.

[stupac2]

[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=13568.msg140443#msg140443 date=1447023297]
Stanford controls its own destiny.

I wish I could be confident that you are correct.  However, given the CFP's initial rankings show that all their talk about SOS is just a bunch of BS, I do not share your confidence.
[/quote]

I still don't understand how people can say that the initial rankings meant anything when the team that won the whole damn thing last year started at #16. Literally the only precedent we have is that we're sitting in a good spot. Are there scenarios where we win out and miss out? Probably, I guess, but it can't be very high.

Look at the 538 predictions. If you add up the percentages for us, ND, and Utah (figuring there's no realistic scenario where more than 1 of that set gets in) you're get 72%. I'd have to think that the majority of the remaining 28% is the odds that someone in there drops another game (Utah especially since they have some tough games left), but they don't have individual games so I can't go through it all.

By far the least likely part of our path to the playoff is winning out. If we can pull that off, we'll be in really good shape.