[CTcard]

In fact, the key stat that determines the winner of most games, rushing differential, they are terrible.  How bad, well, Utah's rush differential is +.57 YPC.  Ca.l's is +.5 YPC.  When you consider that Ca.l passes the ball better, and even defends the pass better than Utah, this meager advantage is more than wiped out.  Ca.l leads the country in forced turnovers and is Top 5 in the country is sacks.

I agree that Utah is being over-rated as the latest flavor of the week, and much of my concern about Utah is how they fare in advanced stats that are based primarily upon yds/allowed vs yds/given up. Still, there are some issues in your logic above.

First, I would contest whether there is any "key stat that determines the winner of most games" - at least in a predictive manner.

Logically, you can't treat yds/rush differential quantitatively then blithely state generically state c.a.l. is better at passing. One ought to have the full numbers. 

Including last night's game, here is the yds/play differential, Pac 12.
1. $C          2.41
2. Stanford  1.94
3. UCLA      1.33
4. c.a.l.      1.17
5. UW        1.15
6. Oregon    0.85
7. Arizona    0.67
8. ASU        0.49
9. Colorado  0.27
10. WSU    0.24
11. Utah    0.07
12. OSU    -0.17

It's pretty easy to see why one might be worried about Utah here. On the other hand, one can also see that $C easily won last night's game.
Of course these should be adjusted for strength of competition, though how to do that is not simple in either concept or execution. 

My impression is that the step up in competition is much bigger for c.a.l. than Utah. Add to that home field. Given the somewhat hidden issues Utah has, I would say c.a.l. has a reasonable chance at the game, but less than 50%. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be a close game. Given the way these offenses (and defenses) perform, one gets the impression that something will snowball and it could end up a blowout either way.

[CTcard]

In fact, the key stat that determines the winner of most games, rushing differential, they are terrible.  How bad, well, Utah's rush differential is +.57 YPC.  Ca.l's is +.5 YPC.  When you consider that Ca.l passes the ball better, and even defends the pass better than Utah, this meager advantage is more than wiped out.  Ca.l leads the country in forced turnovers and is Top 5 in the country is sacks.

I agree that Utah is being over-rated as the latest flavor of the week, and much of my concern about Utah is how they fare in advanced stats that are based primarily upon yds/allowed vs yds/given up. Still, there are some issues in your logic above.

First, I would contest whether there is any "key stat that determines the winner of most games" - at least in a predictive manner.

Logically, you can't treat yds/rush differential quantitatively then blithely state generically state c.a.l. is better at passing. One ought to have the full numbers. 

Including last night's game, here is the yds/play differential, Pac 12.
1. $C          2.41
2. Stanford  1.94
3. UCLA      1.33
4. c.a.l.      1.17
5. UW        1.15
6. Oregon    0.85
7. Arizona    0.67
8. ASU        0.49
9. Colorado  0.27
10. WSU    0.24
11. Utah    0.07
12. OSU    -0.17

It's pretty easy to see why one might be worried about Utah here. On the other hand, one can also see that $C easily won last night's game.
Of course these should be adjusted for strength of competition, though how to do that is not simple in either concept or execution. 

My impression is that the step up in competition is much bigger for c.a.l. than Utah. Add to that home field. Given the somewhat hidden issues Utah has, I would say c.a.l. has a reasonable chance at the game, but less than 50%. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be a close game. Given the way these offenses (and defenses) perform, one gets the impression that something will snowball and it could end up a blowout either way.