10-09-2015, 10:09 AM
We will see. I've been one of Cal's biggest critics on the board, but I have to admit that the relative success of the Cal offense against UW compared to USC is worth reassessing Cal's offense. Still waiting for them to actually play the game, at which point we will find out if Cal is for real or just a pretender.
While Cal passes the ball better than Utah, I think you overstate the advantage. It's worth noting that the nation's leader in ESPN's QBR stat is... Travis Wilson (Goff is 9th, behind, among others, some guy named Hogan, who is fifth).
http://espn.go.com/college-football/qbr
Cal is very good (or very lucky) at gaining turnovers. Utah, however, doesn't commit many. So, a lot will hinge on whether Cal gains 3 - 4 turnovers as it has in the season to date (18 turnovers gained in 5 games), or if Utah gives up 1, as it has the season to date (4 turnovers lost in 4 games). On the other side of the ledger, Utah is second (to Cal) in turnovers gained with 11 in 4 games, while Cal is tied for second to last in the Pac-12 in turnovers lost (10 in 5 games), which seems like it should neutralize Cal's turnover advantage, which has been instrumental to its winning. Of course turnovers are an infrequent occurrence, so anything can happen.
Ultimately, given performances to date, you have to give the edge to Utah. Utah has played (and beaten) Michigan, who has not lost to anyone else, and crushed Oregon, who has issues, but who has only lost to Michigan State otherwise. Cal has played FCS Grambling, San Diego State (only wins were against San Diego and Fresno State; they also lost to South Alabama!), Texas by a missed extra point (whose only win has been against Rice and who just lost to TCU 50-7 and Notre Dame 38-3), Washington, who now counts as Cal's only "good win", and Washington State (who lost to Portland State). Moreover, three of those wins were by less than a touchdown. Given that these are hardly world-beating teams, a 1 point win over Texas and 6 point wins over UW and WSU are not exactly stellar.
Part of me hopes you are right. I would love to see an epic Big Game for the Pac-12 North and the possibility of going to the College Football Playoff. I might even endure insufferable Cal fan for it.
As for Wilner, he predicted Cal would go 7-5 this season. That looks like it might be a bit on the low side when all is said and done, but is hardly egregious. He called a 5-0 start and predicted wins against OSU and UCLA. USC, Oregon, and ASU are all looking better, but more for what those teams have done than anything Cal has done.
If Cal beats Utah, then you guys will deserve to gloat a bit with Wilner, but I don't think you will. Good luck, sort of; I'll be rooting for the Utes.
BC
While Cal passes the ball better than Utah, I think you overstate the advantage. It's worth noting that the nation's leader in ESPN's QBR stat is... Travis Wilson (Goff is 9th, behind, among others, some guy named Hogan, who is fifth).
http://espn.go.com/college-football/qbr
Cal is very good (or very lucky) at gaining turnovers. Utah, however, doesn't commit many. So, a lot will hinge on whether Cal gains 3 - 4 turnovers as it has in the season to date (18 turnovers gained in 5 games), or if Utah gives up 1, as it has the season to date (4 turnovers lost in 4 games). On the other side of the ledger, Utah is second (to Cal) in turnovers gained with 11 in 4 games, while Cal is tied for second to last in the Pac-12 in turnovers lost (10 in 5 games), which seems like it should neutralize Cal's turnover advantage, which has been instrumental to its winning. Of course turnovers are an infrequent occurrence, so anything can happen.
Ultimately, given performances to date, you have to give the edge to Utah. Utah has played (and beaten) Michigan, who has not lost to anyone else, and crushed Oregon, who has issues, but who has only lost to Michigan State otherwise. Cal has played FCS Grambling, San Diego State (only wins were against San Diego and Fresno State; they also lost to South Alabama!), Texas by a missed extra point (whose only win has been against Rice and who just lost to TCU 50-7 and Notre Dame 38-3), Washington, who now counts as Cal's only "good win", and Washington State (who lost to Portland State). Moreover, three of those wins were by less than a touchdown. Given that these are hardly world-beating teams, a 1 point win over Texas and 6 point wins over UW and WSU are not exactly stellar.
Part of me hopes you are right. I would love to see an epic Big Game for the Pac-12 North and the possibility of going to the College Football Playoff. I might even endure insufferable Cal fan for it.
As for Wilner, he predicted Cal would go 7-5 this season. That looks like it might be a bit on the low side when all is said and done, but is hardly egregious. He called a 5-0 start and predicted wins against OSU and UCLA. USC, Oregon, and ASU are all looking better, but more for what those teams have done than anything Cal has done.
If Cal beats Utah, then you guys will deserve to gloat a bit with Wilner, but I don't think you will. Good luck, sort of; I'll be rooting for the Utes.
BC