[BostonCard]

The same exercise for Stanford:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team...&year=2015

We are favored in all but two games (at USC, and home against Oregon), by 75% or more in most.  Two of the games are essentially pick 'ems (Oregon and UCLA).

Simulating 10,000 seasons with a binomial probability, here's what I get:
wins/prob
0/< 0.1%
1/ <0.1%
2/ <0.1%
3/ <0.1%
4/ 0.2%
5/ 1.2%
6/ 4.9%
7/ 13.7%
8/ 24.1%
9/ 27.2%
10/ 20.2%
11/ 7.3%
12/ 1.2%

Median is 9 wins, most likely range is 8 to 10 wins (71% chance).  We have a 28.7% chance of winning double digit games, and a 56% chance of winning at least 9.

BC

[BostonCard]

The same exercise for Stanford:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team...&year=2015

We are favored in all but two games (at USC, and home against Oregon), by 75% or more in most.  Two of the games are essentially pick 'ems (Oregon and UCLA).

Simulating 10,000 seasons with a binomial probability, here's what I get:
wins/prob
0/< 0.1%
1/ <0.1%
2/ <0.1%
3/ <0.1%
4/ 0.2%
5/ 1.2%
6/ 4.9%
7/ 13.7%
8/ 24.1%
9/ 27.2%
10/ 20.2%
11/ 7.3%
12/ 1.2%

Median is 9 wins, most likely range is 8 to 10 wins (71% chance).  We have a 28.7% chance of winning double digit games, and a 56% chance of winning at least 9.

BC