[BostonCard]

Goff has way more offensive talent around him than Trent Edwards did.

I think Dodd's prediction on Ca.l is crazy.  I view them as a 7-8 win team and basically would be shocked if they didn't win 6 to become bowl-eligibile and go to one.  Ca.l may have the highest scoring offense in the Pac-12 this season.  I know that may not mean a lot, but the defense is much improved and actually has some OK depth for the first time in three seasons.

In fact, this year's Big Game is shaping up to have the most offensive fireworks between both teams combined, in my memory.

You are much more tied into Cal than I am, but looking at their schedule, I see four games that should be easy wins: Grambling, San Diego State, Washington State, and Oregon State and one game that seems like a likely win: Washington (I think Cal is a better team, especially with the QB situation unsettled and the defensive departures at UW... but the game is in Seattle).  Then I simply struggle to see where they get their next couple wins.  Of the remaining seven games, five are against pre-season ranked teams (Stanford, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and ASU), and the other two are on the road against decent teams (Utah and Texas).  In fact, the schedule is absolutely dismal for Cal, since almost all the hard games (save USC and ASU) are away and the home games are against cupcakes.

A quick parousal of ESPN's analysis basically mirrors my thinking:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team...&year=2015

They are favored in the five games I identified (all but UW with a 75% or better win probability), and are underdogs in the remaining seven, though ASU is more or less a pick 'em, and Utah and USC can be considered a winnable games.

I suppose this shows a potential path to six or seven wins (win the five games you are favored in and one or two of the mild underdog games).  Eight wins seems a stretch unless ESPN is underrating Cal, or requires sweeping the three winnable games or scoring one majorish upset.

BC

[Add: A quick simulation using a binomial distribution and the win probabilities listed gives a median number of wins as 6, the average as 6.4 and a 70% chance of having 5 - 7 wins.  If the ESPN projections are correct, the probability of having 7 or more wins is 46% and of having 8 (or more) is 21%.  So, I guess there is a path there to 7 or 8 wins, but it seems six is the more likely than 7 wins, and 5 is more likely than 8.  Here are the probabilities:

wins/probability
0/<0.1%
1/<0.1%
2/0.1%
3/1.4%
4/6.9%
5/18.1%
6/28.1%
7/24.6%
8/14%
9/5.1%
10/1.25%
11/0.2%
12/<0.1%

[BostonCard]

Goff has way more offensive talent around him than Trent Edwards did.

I think Dodd's prediction on Ca.l is crazy.  I view them as a 7-8 win team and basically would be shocked if they didn't win 6 to become bowl-eligibile and go to one.  Ca.l may have the highest scoring offense in the Pac-12 this season.  I know that may not mean a lot, but the defense is much improved and actually has some OK depth for the first time in three seasons.

In fact, this year's Big Game is shaping up to have the most offensive fireworks between both teams combined, in my memory.

You are much more tied into Cal than I am, but looking at their schedule, I see four games that should be easy wins: Grambling, San Diego State, Washington State, and Oregon State and one game that seems like a likely win: Washington (I think Cal is a better team, especially with the QB situation unsettled and the defensive departures at UW... but the game is in Seattle).  Then I simply struggle to see where they get their next couple wins.  Of the remaining seven games, five are against pre-season ranked teams (Stanford, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and ASU), and the other two are on the road against decent teams (Utah and Texas).  In fact, the schedule is absolutely dismal for Cal, since almost all the hard games (save USC and ASU) are away and the home games are against cupcakes.

A quick parousal of ESPN's analysis basically mirrors my thinking:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team...&year=2015

They are favored in the five games I identified (all but UW with a 75% or better win probability), and are underdogs in the remaining seven, though ASU is more or less a pick 'em, and Utah and USC can be considered a winnable games.

I suppose this shows a potential path to six or seven wins (win the five games you are favored in and one or two of the mild underdog games).  Eight wins seems a stretch unless ESPN is underrating Cal, or requires sweeping the three winnable games or scoring one majorish upset.

BC

[Add: A quick simulation using a binomial distribution and the win probabilities listed gives a median number of wins as 6, the average as 6.4 and a 70% chance of having 5 - 7 wins.  If the ESPN projections are correct, the probability of having 7 or more wins is 46% and of having 8 (or more) is 21%.  So, I guess there is a path there to 7 or 8 wins, but it seems six is the more likely than 7 wins, and 5 is more likely than 8.  Here are the probabilities:

wins/probability
0/<0.1%
1/<0.1%
2/0.1%
3/1.4%
4/6.9%
5/18.1%
6/28.1%
7/24.6%
8/14%
9/5.1%
10/1.25%
11/0.2%
12/<0.1%