[BostonCard]

[quote author=JPRI link=topic=12569.msg125410#msg125410 date=1440435031]
[quote author=martyup link=topic=12569.msg125408#msg125408 date=1440434500]
I just heard Chris Childers on College Sports Coast to Coast (SiriusXM 84) predict that Stanford has the best chance of the teams ranked 15 to 25 in the AP poll to make the playoffs this season.  8)

OMG, it has to be true then.
[/quote]

Well, it does mean that at least one top tier college football pundit thinks we are underrated.  However, I prefer the underrated chip stays firmly on our team's shoulders.
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It could also mean there is more uncertainty associated with our spot.  Roughly speaking a 9-4 record as a Pac-12 team ought to get us in the range of a #21 ranking (last year, Utah was ranked 21 with a final record of 9-4), and all the playoff teams wound up with 1 or fewer losses heading into the playoff.  There are two ways that someone could believe we are the most likely team to end up in the playoff.  The first assumes that our ranking is inaccurate (that we are a better team than we are given credit for).  The second is that our ranking is accurate but imprecise.  In other words, while a 9-4 record is our most likely outcome, the uncertainty associated with our ranking is such that the writer believes we could end up with a 12-1 ranking heading into the playoff decision, but could also wind up with a losing record and unranked.

I think the latter view is probably more likely.  As Terry pointed out, we finished last season unranked and lost a lot of player from our elite defense.  If our offense is not much better than last year, and our defense is worse, we could end up with a losing record.  On the other hand, if the last three games of the year are an indicator of what our offense will do this year (and with a reasonable expectation that it will continue to progress) and our defense is reasonably close to as good as it was last year, we could wind up with a 12-1 record by year's end.

Until we take the field in a couple competitive games, it will be hard to know for sure.

BC

[BostonCard]

[quote author=JPRI link=topic=12569.msg125410#msg125410 date=1440435031]
[quote author=martyup link=topic=12569.msg125408#msg125408 date=1440434500]
I just heard Chris Childers on College Sports Coast to Coast (SiriusXM 84) predict that Stanford has the best chance of the teams ranked 15 to 25 in the AP poll to make the playoffs this season.  8)

OMG, it has to be true then.
[/quote]

Well, it does mean that at least one top tier college football pundit thinks we are underrated.  However, I prefer the underrated chip stays firmly on our team's shoulders.
[/quote]

It could also mean there is more uncertainty associated with our spot.  Roughly speaking a 9-4 record as a Pac-12 team ought to get us in the range of a #21 ranking (last year, Utah was ranked 21 with a final record of 9-4), and all the playoff teams wound up with 1 or fewer losses heading into the playoff.  There are two ways that someone could believe we are the most likely team to end up in the playoff.  The first assumes that our ranking is inaccurate (that we are a better team than we are given credit for).  The second is that our ranking is accurate but imprecise.  In other words, while a 9-4 record is our most likely outcome, the uncertainty associated with our ranking is such that the writer believes we could end up with a 12-1 ranking heading into the playoff decision, but could also wind up with a losing record and unranked.

I think the latter view is probably more likely.  As Terry pointed out, we finished last season unranked and lost a lot of player from our elite defense.  If our offense is not much better than last year, and our defense is worse, we could end up with a losing record.  On the other hand, if the last three games of the year are an indicator of what our offense will do this year (and with a reasonable expectation that it will continue to progress) and our defense is reasonably close to as good as it was last year, we could wind up with a 12-1 record by year's end.

Until we take the field in a couple competitive games, it will be hard to know for sure.

BC