08-13-2015, 10:38 PM
There is also confirmation bias going on, something all of us are prone to. We've come to a conclusion about something, in this case the relative merits of the two coaching regimes, and the data (especially the subjective data that comes from the eyeball test) confirms the conclusions we've already made.
That being said, although we don't have a crossover study where we can have Harbaugh and Shaw each coach the same 5 years and see how we went, we do have the advantage that each coach has had Andrew Luck for at least a year, and has had a QB other than Andrew Luck for at least a year. The offense in 2011 (under Shaw, with Luck) was about as good as the offense in 2010 under Harbaugh with Luck and a little better than the offense in 2009 under Harbaugh and with Luck (as a RS freshman). The ypp numbers were:
2009 (Harbaugh/Luck): 6.54 ypp
2010 (Harbaugh/Luck): 6.71 ypp
2011 (Shaw/Luck): 6.8 ypp
If anything Shaw's year with Luck was the best of the three, which you maybe expect when you have a third year first round draft pick directing the offense.
We also have some years without Luck
2008 (Harbaugh/Pritchard): 5.43 ypp (a full yard per play lower than Luck as a redshirt freshman)
2012 (Shaw/Nunes and Hogan): 5.53 ypp (a 1.3 yard drop from when Shaw had Luck)
2013 (Shaw/Hogan): 6.35 ypp
2014 (Shaw/Hogan): 5.89 ypp
So, what happened... did Harbaugh become a genious from 2008 to 2009 or was Luck responsible for a dramatic improvement in our offense. Likewise, what happened between 2011 and 2012? Did Shaw forget how to coach, or was the fact that Luck went on to become the first pick of the 2012 draft make the offense lose a bit of its punch.
BC
That being said, although we don't have a crossover study where we can have Harbaugh and Shaw each coach the same 5 years and see how we went, we do have the advantage that each coach has had Andrew Luck for at least a year, and has had a QB other than Andrew Luck for at least a year. The offense in 2011 (under Shaw, with Luck) was about as good as the offense in 2010 under Harbaugh with Luck and a little better than the offense in 2009 under Harbaugh and with Luck (as a RS freshman). The ypp numbers were:
2009 (Harbaugh/Luck): 6.54 ypp
2010 (Harbaugh/Luck): 6.71 ypp
2011 (Shaw/Luck): 6.8 ypp
If anything Shaw's year with Luck was the best of the three, which you maybe expect when you have a third year first round draft pick directing the offense.
We also have some years without Luck
2008 (Harbaugh/Pritchard): 5.43 ypp (a full yard per play lower than Luck as a redshirt freshman)
2012 (Shaw/Nunes and Hogan): 5.53 ypp (a 1.3 yard drop from when Shaw had Luck)
2013 (Shaw/Hogan): 6.35 ypp
2014 (Shaw/Hogan): 5.89 ypp
So, what happened... did Harbaugh become a genious from 2008 to 2009 or was Luck responsible for a dramatic improvement in our offense. Likewise, what happened between 2011 and 2012? Did Shaw forget how to coach, or was the fact that Luck went on to become the first pick of the 2012 draft make the offense lose a bit of its punch.
BC
