04-05-2011, 02:17 AM
Mel plays an athletic game. She makes flashy plays, but she gets burned by this. Just because she makes some successful flashy plays doesn\'t mean that overall she contributed more than she cost.
I don\'t mean to put down Mel, but I think thoughts that she played well in the game are short-sighted. Talking about her play points out the difficulties in saying whether a player contributes more or less than she hurts the team.
How do you account in some measure for the fact that there were only 5 assists to Nneka during the game, and that Mel was credited with only one. (Nneka received a pass from Mel with her back to the basket, 3 feet beyond the 3 point arc, took three dribbles toward the basket and did a spin move on Adams.)
If you\'re someone that believes your eyes, turn on your DVR to 10:47 left in the game.
10:47 Mel gets the ball on an inbounds play with 30 seconds on the shot clock. She goes to the basket and makes an off balance shot leaping away from the basket, knocking away the only possible Stanford rebounder. A&M rebound. (I would count this as a bad play. She made a poor shot with no chance of a rebound when there was a lot of time on the shot clock.)
10:30 Mel goes in to swat the ball away on a dribbler cutting to the basket (that\'s fine) but then she stands and watches Nneka, Chiney, and Kayla battle with Adams and Elonu for the rebound, without blocking anyone out or covering a player. A&M gets the tip and tosses it out to the player she left waiting at the 3 point line. Once the pass is made, Mel can\'t get out in time. A&M 3 points.
[This was the 3pt shot that I previously mistakenly remembered as at the end of the game.]
10:16 Mel makes a good drive to the basket but charges around Adams and into Elonu. The shot misses anyway, and we did have a 1 Stanford on 4 A&M rebounding disadvantage. That was one more foul on the way to those foul shots by A&M late in the game.
Wind the tape/DVR back a bit to 11:55 and you\'ll watch Mel dive for a ball as it goes out of bounds (off A&M, but you never know with these officials). She couldn\'t possibly get the ball. If she did, she probably would not retain possession (going out of bounds or getting trapped by Adams under the A&M basket). But she manages to touch the ball on the way out, so the ball goes to A&M. She tried to be a hero but wound up costing Stanford the ball.
It isn\'t all bad. If you go back to 12:22, Mel does jump to block out an A&M player when it looks like there will be a shot. Then she goes back toward her player. Mel jumps back in when Jeanette\'s player cuts to the basket. IMO, Mel almost ruins Jeanette\'s defense because Mel blocks Jeanette (resulting in Jeanette sandwiched between Mel & the dribbler). Maya Moore would have passed out to Mel\'s player on the 3 point line, but this was no Moore. The dribbler tries to spin and loses the ball, which Mel gets to. The scorer gives Mel a steal, which I think is generous. Then when she goes down court with the ball, she drives to the basket and makes a good pass to Chiney rather than trying to shoot it herself.
How can you reasonably sum over all those good and bad plays? My point is that it is hard to objectively sum up all the good, bad, and indeterminate individual plays that a player makes in the game.
I think the yardstick that best accounts for all the factors is scoring differential while a player is in. It isn\'t perfect, but I believe it is a cleaner measure than understanding a multidimensional measure of all the other stats. Just like all those other stats, it depends on the other players (both sides), but a player should play for that. Use your team\'s strengths; take advantage of the other team\'s weaknesses. I would say that this single stat combines more information than you find in those other stats. I first started using this to try to understand how much Nicole Powell helped her team (both at Stanford & Sacramento & Charlotte, that originally drafted but they didn\'t use her much).
There are some adjustments I would make to that yardstick if I could figure out a good way. This measure assumes that all your credit/blame happens while you are in the game. Fouls are something that affects later play. For instance, when Mel commits 3 fouls in the second half, she could be held accountable for some portion of the opponent foul shots in bonus situations. Likewise, if she causes fouls by the other team, she could get some portion of her own team\'s bonus foul shots. Potentially, one could account for getting an opponent fouled out, and account for the coach having to substitute in a lower skilled player when you (or an opponent) get DQ\'ed or having to sit on the bench in foul trouble.
With this measure, it doesn\'t mater whether you are the post or point guard, shooting guard, or defensive specialist. One measure tells how well the team does when you are in versus out.
I don\'t mean to put down Mel, but I think thoughts that she played well in the game are short-sighted. Talking about her play points out the difficulties in saying whether a player contributes more or less than she hurts the team.
How do you account in some measure for the fact that there were only 5 assists to Nneka during the game, and that Mel was credited with only one. (Nneka received a pass from Mel with her back to the basket, 3 feet beyond the 3 point arc, took three dribbles toward the basket and did a spin move on Adams.)
If you\'re someone that believes your eyes, turn on your DVR to 10:47 left in the game.
10:47 Mel gets the ball on an inbounds play with 30 seconds on the shot clock. She goes to the basket and makes an off balance shot leaping away from the basket, knocking away the only possible Stanford rebounder. A&M rebound. (I would count this as a bad play. She made a poor shot with no chance of a rebound when there was a lot of time on the shot clock.)
10:30 Mel goes in to swat the ball away on a dribbler cutting to the basket (that\'s fine) but then she stands and watches Nneka, Chiney, and Kayla battle with Adams and Elonu for the rebound, without blocking anyone out or covering a player. A&M gets the tip and tosses it out to the player she left waiting at the 3 point line. Once the pass is made, Mel can\'t get out in time. A&M 3 points.
[This was the 3pt shot that I previously mistakenly remembered as at the end of the game.]
10:16 Mel makes a good drive to the basket but charges around Adams and into Elonu. The shot misses anyway, and we did have a 1 Stanford on 4 A&M rebounding disadvantage. That was one more foul on the way to those foul shots by A&M late in the game.
Wind the tape/DVR back a bit to 11:55 and you\'ll watch Mel dive for a ball as it goes out of bounds (off A&M, but you never know with these officials). She couldn\'t possibly get the ball. If she did, she probably would not retain possession (going out of bounds or getting trapped by Adams under the A&M basket). But she manages to touch the ball on the way out, so the ball goes to A&M. She tried to be a hero but wound up costing Stanford the ball.
It isn\'t all bad. If you go back to 12:22, Mel does jump to block out an A&M player when it looks like there will be a shot. Then she goes back toward her player. Mel jumps back in when Jeanette\'s player cuts to the basket. IMO, Mel almost ruins Jeanette\'s defense because Mel blocks Jeanette (resulting in Jeanette sandwiched between Mel & the dribbler). Maya Moore would have passed out to Mel\'s player on the 3 point line, but this was no Moore. The dribbler tries to spin and loses the ball, which Mel gets to. The scorer gives Mel a steal, which I think is generous. Then when she goes down court with the ball, she drives to the basket and makes a good pass to Chiney rather than trying to shoot it herself.
How can you reasonably sum over all those good and bad plays? My point is that it is hard to objectively sum up all the good, bad, and indeterminate individual plays that a player makes in the game.
I think the yardstick that best accounts for all the factors is scoring differential while a player is in. It isn\'t perfect, but I believe it is a cleaner measure than understanding a multidimensional measure of all the other stats. Just like all those other stats, it depends on the other players (both sides), but a player should play for that. Use your team\'s strengths; take advantage of the other team\'s weaknesses. I would say that this single stat combines more information than you find in those other stats. I first started using this to try to understand how much Nicole Powell helped her team (both at Stanford & Sacramento & Charlotte, that originally drafted but they didn\'t use her much).
There are some adjustments I would make to that yardstick if I could figure out a good way. This measure assumes that all your credit/blame happens while you are in the game. Fouls are something that affects later play. For instance, when Mel commits 3 fouls in the second half, she could be held accountable for some portion of the opponent foul shots in bonus situations. Likewise, if she causes fouls by the other team, she could get some portion of her own team\'s bonus foul shots. Potentially, one could account for getting an opponent fouled out, and account for the coach having to substitute in a lower skilled player when you (or an opponent) get DQ\'ed or having to sit on the bench in foul trouble.
With this measure, it doesn\'t mater whether you are the post or point guard, shooting guard, or defensive specialist. One measure tells how well the team does when you are in versus out.