[Mick]

[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=11870.msg114722#msg114722 date=1426292404]
Ah, ok, that's a bit better but doesn't solve the issue. The problem is that the statistics WANT to tell you that you should focus on education because your odds of going pro in sports are infinitesimal, but that doesn't reflect the true odds:

1) a high schooler can go pro without going to college. (that's addressed because they normalize it to "number of college players).
2) a college player can go pro in American sports without being drafted. (undrafted free agents).
3) A college player can go pro in a league abroad without being drafted (pretty common in soccer and basketball.)

These aren't the true odds, is the point.

And not a single nit was left unpicked.
[/quote]

So from a layman's perspective, it is somewhere between 94% and 98% a better decision to attend Stanford than a football factory?  Am I in the ballpark?

[Mick]

[quote author=washingtonismoney link=topic=11870.msg114722#msg114722 date=1426292404]
Ah, ok, that's a bit better but doesn't solve the issue. The problem is that the statistics WANT to tell you that you should focus on education because your odds of going pro in sports are infinitesimal, but that doesn't reflect the true odds:

1) a high schooler can go pro without going to college. (that's addressed because they normalize it to "number of college players).
2) a college player can go pro in American sports without being drafted. (undrafted free agents).
3) A college player can go pro in a league abroad without being drafted (pretty common in soccer and basketball.)

These aren't the true odds, is the point.

And not a single nit was left unpicked.
[/quote]

So from a layman's perspective, it is somewhere between 94% and 98% a better decision to attend Stanford than a football factory?  Am I in the ballpark?