02-05-2015, 11:45 PM
Just a thought on evaluating recruiting classes.
Judging the quality of a class is a lot like evaluating an NFL Draft. We probably won't really be able to figure out exactly how good this group is for a few years, though it does seem quite promising. But if we think carefully about this, only roughly half of all scholarship players, on average, are likely to play a really significant role on the field.
Each team can have 85 scholarship-supported players on the roster at any given time, and there are roughly 46 players who are playing significant minutes (22 starters, 22 primary backups, plus the two specialists, P/K) Stanford may try to get players onto the field who are a bit further down the depth chart, but on the other hand you are not constantly shuttling in backup OL. So 46 seems like a fair number. So it seems to me that in any given recruiting class, roughly half the players may not make it to being major contributors on the field, whether due to injury, lack of expected development, transfers, whatever. Even in the vaunted class of 2012, generally considered one of the best classes in Stanford history, this is the case:
Total Class Size: 22
Clear Starters after three years
Andrus Peat
Kyle Murphy
Graham Schuler
Johnny Caspers (3 Star)
Josh Garnett
Alex Carter
Blake Martinez (3 Star)
Michael Rector (3 Star)
Non-Starters but Contributing Significantly/Possible Starters for 2015
Aziz Shittu
Zach Hoffpauir (3 Star)
Barry Sanders
Luke Kaumatule
On the Bubble of Productivity
Noor Davis
Kodi Whitfiled
Jordan Watkins
Yet to make an impact
Connor Crane
Dontonio Jordan
Nick Davidson
Nathanial Lohn
Drew Madhu (medical retirement)
Ikenna Nwafor (medical retirement)
TBD
Brandon Fanaika (returned from mission, then injured)
But if we look back at recent classes, one that seems to be having a disproportionately large impact on the program is the smallest group in recent memory, the class of 2013.
Starter or likely starter for 2015
Austin Hooper, TE--Starter
Peter Kalambayi, LB--Probable starter this year, flashed incredible athleticism
Francis Owusu, WR--gained more PT at the end of last season, likely #3 receiver unless Trent Irwin makes a move
Eric Cotton, TE--Not a starter, but found significant playing time; not starter but given the way we like to use TEs he could be as productive as a starter
Greg Taboada, TE--Same as Cotton, productive, will see field a lot
On the Bubble, but likely to play a lot
Kevin Palma, LB--Legitimate Challenger for a starting position
Dave Bright, OL--Hasn't cracked the starting lineup, but has seen time as the extra OL
Mike Tyler, OLB--received early raves, a big year for him to work himself into the rotation when the D makes wholesale substitutions against the run-and-gun teams
Yet to Make an Impact
Thomas Oser, OL--has suffered through injury issues, jury still out
Taijuan Thomas, CB--hasn't been a big contributor yet, now needs to claw his way through intense competition
Ryan Burns, QB--We will know a bit more about his development in the Spring
TBD
Sean Barton, LB--Just getting started
If this works out, roughly two-thirds of the class of 2013 (7 or 8 players, depending on the role developed for Bright)will take positions either as starters or major contributors as part of a rotation (thinking LBs and TEs especially, and the Ogre Lineman), with still the possibility of Burns (though he will need to pass Chryst) and Barton also having an impact.
This strikes me as really impressive, given the initial sense of many that the class had some good members but that the numbers were a bit underwhelming (particularly following on the heels of the famed 2012 class). And if Stanford needs to do a better job than the traditional football powerhouses at finding and developing talent that is under appreciated, then the 2013 class seems to be a great example of the coaches doing just that.
Judging the quality of a class is a lot like evaluating an NFL Draft. We probably won't really be able to figure out exactly how good this group is for a few years, though it does seem quite promising. But if we think carefully about this, only roughly half of all scholarship players, on average, are likely to play a really significant role on the field.
Each team can have 85 scholarship-supported players on the roster at any given time, and there are roughly 46 players who are playing significant minutes (22 starters, 22 primary backups, plus the two specialists, P/K) Stanford may try to get players onto the field who are a bit further down the depth chart, but on the other hand you are not constantly shuttling in backup OL. So 46 seems like a fair number. So it seems to me that in any given recruiting class, roughly half the players may not make it to being major contributors on the field, whether due to injury, lack of expected development, transfers, whatever. Even in the vaunted class of 2012, generally considered one of the best classes in Stanford history, this is the case:
Total Class Size: 22
Clear Starters after three years
Andrus Peat
Kyle Murphy
Graham Schuler
Johnny Caspers (3 Star)
Josh Garnett
Alex Carter
Blake Martinez (3 Star)
Michael Rector (3 Star)
Non-Starters but Contributing Significantly/Possible Starters for 2015
Aziz Shittu
Zach Hoffpauir (3 Star)
Barry Sanders
Luke Kaumatule
On the Bubble of Productivity
Noor Davis
Kodi Whitfiled
Jordan Watkins
Yet to make an impact
Connor Crane
Dontonio Jordan
Nick Davidson
Nathanial Lohn
Drew Madhu (medical retirement)
Ikenna Nwafor (medical retirement)
TBD
Brandon Fanaika (returned from mission, then injured)
But if we look back at recent classes, one that seems to be having a disproportionately large impact on the program is the smallest group in recent memory, the class of 2013.
Starter or likely starter for 2015
Austin Hooper, TE--Starter
Peter Kalambayi, LB--Probable starter this year, flashed incredible athleticism
Francis Owusu, WR--gained more PT at the end of last season, likely #3 receiver unless Trent Irwin makes a move
Eric Cotton, TE--Not a starter, but found significant playing time; not starter but given the way we like to use TEs he could be as productive as a starter
Greg Taboada, TE--Same as Cotton, productive, will see field a lot
On the Bubble, but likely to play a lot
Kevin Palma, LB--Legitimate Challenger for a starting position
Dave Bright, OL--Hasn't cracked the starting lineup, but has seen time as the extra OL
Mike Tyler, OLB--received early raves, a big year for him to work himself into the rotation when the D makes wholesale substitutions against the run-and-gun teams
Yet to Make an Impact
Thomas Oser, OL--has suffered through injury issues, jury still out
Taijuan Thomas, CB--hasn't been a big contributor yet, now needs to claw his way through intense competition
Ryan Burns, QB--We will know a bit more about his development in the Spring
TBD
Sean Barton, LB--Just getting started
If this works out, roughly two-thirds of the class of 2013 (7 or 8 players, depending on the role developed for Bright)will take positions either as starters or major contributors as part of a rotation (thinking LBs and TEs especially, and the Ogre Lineman), with still the possibility of Burns (though he will need to pass Chryst) and Barton also having an impact.
This strikes me as really impressive, given the initial sense of many that the class had some good members but that the numbers were a bit underwhelming (particularly following on the heels of the famed 2012 class). And if Stanford needs to do a better job than the traditional football powerhouses at finding and developing talent that is under appreciated, then the 2013 class seems to be a great example of the coaches doing just that.