[82lsju]

[quote author=terry link=topic=9689.msg85710#msg85710 date=1395103014]
If Stanford can't beat S. Dakota [19-13] and Iowa State[20-10] any time, any where, in front of any crowd, then we deserve to be bounced out of this tournament. No excuses. Just play basketball.

I expect last year's men's #2 seed Georgetown (25-6) felt that way about #15 seed Florida Gulf Coast (24-10).

The #1 seed plays (if all goes by seeding) #16, #8, #4  while the #2 seed plays #15, #7, #3.  Each of those games against higher seeds gives a slightly higher probability of an upset.
[/quote]

and Florida Gulf Coast didn't even have a home court advantage  :)

At home Iowa STATE lost 5 times this year (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State).

We should beat them, but anything can happen in any given game, just ask Georgetown about Villanova in 1985.......

[82lsju]

[quote author=terry link=topic=9689.msg85710#msg85710 date=1395103014]
If Stanford can't beat S. Dakota [19-13] and Iowa State[20-10] any time, any where, in front of any crowd, then we deserve to be bounced out of this tournament. No excuses. Just play basketball.

I expect last year's men's #2 seed Georgetown (25-6) felt that way about #15 seed Florida Gulf Coast (24-10).

The #1 seed plays (if all goes by seeding) #16, #8, #4  while the #2 seed plays #15, #7, #3.  Each of those games against higher seeds gives a slightly higher probability of an upset.
[/quote]

and Florida Gulf Coast didn't even have a home court advantage  :)

At home Iowa STATE lost 5 times this year (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State).

We should beat them, but anything can happen in any given game, just ask Georgetown about Villanova in 1985.......

[terry]

Iowa State's home record in conference games was 4-5.

Iowa State's road record in conference games was 5-4.

No home court advantage whatsoever.

Come on, folks. We aren't afraid of playing at Ames, Iowa, are we? What happened to the Cardboard I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh?

http://www.cyclones.com/fls/10700/STATS/...M_ID=10700

[terry]

Iowa State's home record in conference games was 4-5.

Iowa State's road record in conference games was 5-4.

No home court advantage whatsoever.

Come on, folks. We aren't afraid of playing at Ames, Iowa, are we? What happened to the Cardboard I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh?

http://www.cyclones.com/fls/10700/STATS/...M_ID=10700

[Kathy]

At home Iowa lost 6 times this year (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State).

But we're not playing Iowa ... we're playing Iowa State.

[Kathy]

At home Iowa lost 6 times this year (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State).

But we're not playing Iowa ... we're playing Iowa State.

[slide]

Iowa State's home record in conference games was 4-5.

Iowa State's road record in conference games was 5-4.

No home court advantage whatsoever.

Come on, folks. We aren't afraid of playing at Ames, Iowa, are we? What happened to the Cardboard I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh?

http://www.cyclones.com/fls/10700/STATS/...M_ID=10700

Terry -- your post seemed like an appropriate call for Blutarsky.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE

[slide]

Iowa State's home record in conference games was 4-5.

Iowa State's road record in conference games was 5-4.

No home court advantage whatsoever.

Come on, folks. We aren't afraid of playing at Ames, Iowa, are we? What happened to the Cardboard I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh?

http://www.cyclones.com/fls/10700/STATS/...M_ID=10700

Terry -- your post seemed like an appropriate call for Blutarsky.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE

[M T]

One could suggest Iowa State has a home court disadvantage, having had a home loss and away win against 3 teams versus a home win and away loss against 2 teams.

Iowa State's record playing in front of 10,000+ is 6-4 (8-5  when 9,500+).  Stanford's record is 0-0 (0-1 when 9,500+).  I hope this is a good learning experience to prepare for Nashville.

[M T]

One could suggest Iowa State has a home court disadvantage, having had a home loss and away win against 3 teams versus a home win and away loss against 2 teams.

Iowa State's record playing in front of 10,000+ is 6-4 (8-5  when 9,500+).  Stanford's record is 0-0 (0-1 when 9,500+).  I hope this is a good learning experience to prepare for Nashville.

[82lsju]

[quote author=82lsju link=topic=9689.msg85750#msg85750 date=1395160443]
At home Iowa lost 6 times this year (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State).

But we're not playing Iowa ... we're playing Iowa State.
[/quote]

fixed the typo, the losses are for Iowa State at home and the loss to Kansas State was on the road.

[82lsju]

[quote author=82lsju link=topic=9689.msg85750#msg85750 date=1395160443]
At home Iowa lost 6 times this year (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State).

But we're not playing Iowa ... we're playing Iowa State.
[/quote]

fixed the typo, the losses are for Iowa State at home and the loss to Kansas State was on the road.

[CTcard]

Iowa State's record playing in front of 10,000+ is 6-4 (8-5  when 9,500+).  Stanford's record is 0-0 (0-1 when 9,500+).  I hope this is a good learning experience to prepare for Nashville.

Wow. I guess I can see why Iowa State won a bid to host - that is amazingly good attendance particularly considering they are not exactly a traditional national power.

The most recent attendance numbers I could find were for last year. http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/...tend1.html
Iowa State was #2 in the country in attendance, with an average of 9,970. That was behind only Tennessee, ahead of (in order) Louisville, Baylor, Notre Dame and UConn. Stanford came in at #20, 5686 fans per game behind Iowa State.

Presumably there will be no shortage of witnesses to our take-out of the Cyclones.

[CTcard]

Iowa State's record playing in front of 10,000+ is 6-4 (8-5  when 9,500+).  Stanford's record is 0-0 (0-1 when 9,500+).  I hope this is a good learning experience to prepare for Nashville.

Wow. I guess I can see why Iowa State won a bid to host - that is amazingly good attendance particularly considering they are not exactly a traditional national power.

The most recent attendance numbers I could find were for last year. http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/...tend1.html
Iowa State was #2 in the country in attendance, with an average of 9,970. That was behind only Tennessee, ahead of (in order) Louisville, Baylor, Notre Dame and UConn. Stanford came in at #20, 5686 fans per game behind Iowa State.

Presumably there will be no shortage of witnesses to our take-out of the Cyclones.

[Yellowlab]

I would much rather be Stanford at #2 in this bracket than South Carolina at #1. 

[Yellowlab]

I would much rather be Stanford at #2 in this bracket than South Carolina at #1. 

[81alum]

You know, Florida State could easily knock off Iowa State.  If they do and we meet them, it will be a match up between Chiney Ogwumike, who was the #1 recruit in 2010, and Natasha Howard, who was the #2 recruit in 2010.

Howard is averaging 21 points and 9 rebounds a game and making 60% of her field goals.  Given that FSU has a second double digit scorer and we don't, those numbers are not far off of Chiney.

[81alum]

You know, Florida State could easily knock off Iowa State.  If they do and we meet them, it will be a match up between Chiney Ogwumike, who was the #1 recruit in 2010, and Natasha Howard, who was the #2 recruit in 2010.

Howard is averaging 21 points and 9 rebounds a game and making 60% of her field goals.  Given that FSU has a second double digit scorer and we don't, those numbers are not far off of Chiney.

[Jskass]

Let's first beat South Dakota

[Jskass]

Let's first beat South Dakota

[81alum]

Hilton Arena does have a special reputation.  It is literally the only game in town, and absorbs a quarter of the local population.  Phenomenal.  Just contrast that with UCLA, which has a community of several million people to draw from and managed to draw 820 to a home game against WSU this year.

Iowa State fans of the men’s and women’s basketball teams share something in common—they believe in “Hilton Magic.” That’s when more than 14,000 fans—nearly a quarter of the population of Ames, home to Iowa State—fill the Hilton Coliseum to its capacity, cheering on their Cyclones so enthusiastically that they tip the scoreboard in their favor.

The magic of Hilton is ingrained in the people,” agreed ISU women’s coach Bill Fennelly, who’s in his 19th season—the longest-tenured coach in the Big-12. “It’s loud in a way that I think does impact the game. The players, the coaches, the fans are eerily connected. It just seems like there have been a lot of moments here where something has happened that people are like, ‘How did that happen?’ I think that’s where the magic comes from.

http://espn.go.com/blog/espnevents/post/...magic-ride

[81alum]

Hilton Arena does have a special reputation.  It is literally the only game in town, and absorbs a quarter of the local population.  Phenomenal.  Just contrast that with UCLA, which has a community of several million people to draw from and managed to draw 820 to a home game against WSU this year.

Iowa State fans of the men’s and women’s basketball teams share something in common—they believe in “Hilton Magic.” That’s when more than 14,000 fans—nearly a quarter of the population of Ames, home to Iowa State—fill the Hilton Coliseum to its capacity, cheering on their Cyclones so enthusiastically that they tip the scoreboard in their favor.

The magic of Hilton is ingrained in the people,” agreed ISU women’s coach Bill Fennelly, who’s in his 19th season—the longest-tenured coach in the Big-12. “It’s loud in a way that I think does impact the game. The players, the coaches, the fans are eerily connected. It just seems like there have been a lot of moments here where something has happened that people are like, ‘How did that happen?’ I think that’s where the magic comes from.

http://espn.go.com/blog/espnevents/post/...magic-ride

[terry]

The linked article was written when Iowa State was on a roll. ISU started the season with a 14-0 record, including wins in all 11 non-conference games and its first 3 conference games. During that run, Iowa State went 8-0 at home, outscoring opponents on its home court by an average of 81.0 to 58.4.

But starting around the time the linked article appeared, it was a different story. Since January 11, Iowa State has gone 6-10 overall. ISU's record at home has been 3-5. They have been outscored on their home court by an average of 65.8 to 68.3.

"Hilton Magic" has been more potent this season against overmatched non-conference opponents. It doesn't seem to have worked very well in the last two months against ISU's conference opponents.

Iowa State fans of the men’s and women’s basketball teams share something in common—they believe in “Hilton Magic.” That’s when more than 14,000 fans—nearly a quarter of the population of Ames, home to Iowa State—fill the Hilton Coliseum to its capacity, cheering on their Cyclones so enthusiastically that they tip the scoreboard in their favor.

The magic of Hilton is ingrained in the people,” agreed ISU women’s coach Bill Fennelly, who’s in his 19th season—the longest-tenured coach in the Big-12. “It’s loud in a way that I think does impact the game. The players, the coaches, the fans are eerily connected. It just seems like there have been a lot of moments here where something has happened that people are like, ‘How did that happen?’ I think that’s where the magic comes from.

http://espn.go.com/blog/espnevents/post/...magic-ride

[terry]

The linked article was written when Iowa State was on a roll. ISU started the season with a 14-0 record, including wins in all 11 non-conference games and its first 3 conference games. During that run, Iowa State went 8-0 at home, outscoring opponents on its home court by an average of 81.0 to 58.4.

But starting around the time the linked article appeared, it was a different story. Since January 11, Iowa State has gone 6-10 overall. ISU's record at home has been 3-5. They have been outscored on their home court by an average of 65.8 to 68.3.

"Hilton Magic" has been more potent this season against overmatched non-conference opponents. It doesn't seem to have worked very well in the last two months against ISU's conference opponents.

Iowa State fans of the men’s and women’s basketball teams share something in common—they believe in “Hilton Magic.” That’s when more than 14,000 fans—nearly a quarter of the population of Ames, home to Iowa State—fill the Hilton Coliseum to its capacity, cheering on their Cyclones so enthusiastically that they tip the scoreboard in their favor.

The magic of Hilton is ingrained in the people,” agreed ISU women’s coach Bill Fennelly, who’s in his 19th season—the longest-tenured coach in the Big-12. “It’s loud in a way that I think does impact the game. The players, the coaches, the fans are eerily connected. It just seems like there have been a lot of moments here where something has happened that people are like, ‘How did that happen?’ I think that’s where the magic comes from.

http://espn.go.com/blog/espnevents/post/...magic-ride

[81alum]

"Hilton Magic" has been more potent this season against overmatched non-conference opponents. It doesn't seem to have worked very well in the last two months against ISU's conference opponents.

True, but the attendance has been consistent for years and is amazing.  Iowa State draws better than UConn.

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/...tend1.html

I also have a sneaky feeling that Hilton magic may run out against Florida State, anyway! 

[81alum]

"Hilton Magic" has been more potent this season against overmatched non-conference opponents. It doesn't seem to have worked very well in the last two months against ISU's conference opponents.

True, but the attendance has been consistent for years and is amazing.  Iowa State draws better than UConn.

http://web1.ncaa.org/app_data/weeklyrpi/...tend1.html

I also have a sneaky feeling that Hilton magic may run out against Florida State, anyway! 

[Viking_Guy]

81A--

My sneaky feeling is saying the same thing - I think ISU hasn't changed much from the team that Jayne torched for 46 at Haas Pavilion - fundamentally sound, but not very quick or big.  The one worry I always have is if a 3 point shooting team gets hot - case in point, their win against Oklahoma State, where they shot 15-31 from 3 (vs the two losses, where they were something like 9-32 in each game).  Combine that with our recent 3 point shooting woes, especially on the road, and, well, I'm a worrier.

But it would be nice to get some payback against FSU as well - although they match up much better with us than ISU does.

Again, first things first.  South Dakota.  Whomp them - as in, get and keep extending a big lead - so some depth can play and everyone can get used to the gym.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

81A--

My sneaky feeling is saying the same thing - I think ISU hasn't changed much from the team that Jayne torched for 46 at Haas Pavilion - fundamentally sound, but not very quick or big.  The one worry I always have is if a 3 point shooting team gets hot - case in point, their win against Oklahoma State, where they shot 15-31 from 3 (vs the two losses, where they were something like 9-32 in each game).  Combine that with our recent 3 point shooting woes, especially on the road, and, well, I'm a worrier.

But it would be nice to get some payback against FSU as well - although they match up much better with us than ISU does.

Again, first things first.  South Dakota.  Whomp them - as in, get and keep extending a big lead - so some depth can play and everyone can get used to the gym.

VG

[82lsju]

assuming we beat South Dakota, we should be able to use the "law of score transitivity" to project the score of an Iowa State/Stanford game as  Iowa State beat South Dakota 88-72 early in the season.

[82lsju]

assuming we beat South Dakota, we should be able to use the "law of score transitivity" to project the score of an Iowa State/Stanford game as  Iowa State beat South Dakota 88-72 early in the season.

[CTcard]

... I think ISU hasn't changed much from the team that Jayne torched for 46 at Haas Pavilion - fundamentally sound, but not very quick or big.  The one worry I always have is if a 3 point shooting team gets hot - case in point, their win against Oklahoma State, where they shot 15-31 from 3 (vs the two losses, where they were something like 9-32 in each game). 

.

1. Why do you think that ISU hasn't changed much?
Have you been watching them this year?

2. What were "the two losses"?
Actually now I see you are refering to two losses vs Oklahoma State.
According to ESPN ISU shot 15-36 in the win, 3-17 in loss #1, and 7-25 in loss #2 (Big 12 tournament).

Agree that the win vs Ok State is a good one to look at, as it is ISU's best win. Their other notable wins were vs Iowa at home (10-27 from three) and vs Texas at home (9-31 from three).

[CTcard]

... I think ISU hasn't changed much from the team that Jayne torched for 46 at Haas Pavilion - fundamentally sound, but not very quick or big.  The one worry I always have is if a 3 point shooting team gets hot - case in point, their win against Oklahoma State, where they shot 15-31 from 3 (vs the two losses, where they were something like 9-32 in each game). 

.

1. Why do you think that ISU hasn't changed much?
Have you been watching them this year?

2. What were "the two losses"?
Actually now I see you are refering to two losses vs Oklahoma State.
According to ESPN ISU shot 15-36 in the win, 3-17 in loss #1, and 7-25 in loss #2 (Big 12 tournament).

Agree that the win vs Ok State is a good one to look at, as it is ISU's best win. Their other notable wins were vs Iowa at home (10-27 from three) and vs Texas at home (9-31 from three).

[Viking_Guy]

CTCard--

I actually took a look at some of their boxscores, their roster, and watched a few highlights.  Fennelly is still their coach.  Every single one of their starters has attempted 60+ three pointers.  One of their inside players has 114 three attempts (Christofferson); she's the only player who gets significant minutes over 6' tall.  Their three other players that tall, one (Baier) suffered a season-ending knee injury in December; one is listed primarily as a volleyball player (Matlock); and the last, Jensen, is a freshman who has played 30 minutes all year.

In the game against Jayne Appel in Berkeley, their primary offense was the three or the short jumper in the lane; they didn't have a real post game, but rotated through the post and often tried to drag our posts out of the lane by bringing their posts high and running high pick action at the elbows, then pulling up rather than face the help defense underneath, unless the rotation was late, in which case they'd go straight to the hoop.  I was sitting under the basket watching it (as well as watching it against Michigan State and 6'7" Alyssa DeHaan two nights before).  It's a style that is really dependent on jumpers going down.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

CTCard--

I actually took a look at some of their boxscores, their roster, and watched a few highlights.  Fennelly is still their coach.  Every single one of their starters has attempted 60+ three pointers.  One of their inside players has 114 three attempts (Christofferson); she's the only player who gets significant minutes over 6' tall.  Their three other players that tall, one (Baier) suffered a season-ending knee injury in December; one is listed primarily as a volleyball player (Matlock); and the last, Jensen, is a freshman who has played 30 minutes all year.

In the game against Jayne Appel in Berkeley, their primary offense was the three or the short jumper in the lane; they didn't have a real post game, but rotated through the post and often tried to drag our posts out of the lane by bringing their posts high and running high pick action at the elbows, then pulling up rather than face the help defense underneath, unless the rotation was late, in which case they'd go straight to the hoop.  I was sitting under the basket watching it (as well as watching it against Michigan State and 6'7" Alyssa DeHaan two nights before).  It's a style that is really dependent on jumpers going down.

VG

[CTcard]

VG - Thanks for the extended info. Useful.

[CTcard]

VG - Thanks for the extended info. Useful.

[81alum]

Right now you can watch Iowa State and FSU playing on ESPN3:
http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/_/cha...gue/NCAAW/

Florida State is demolishing Iowa State at the start of the game.  Iowa State is selling out to stop Natasha Howard (much as they would Chiney) and FSU is punishing them for doing it with 50% three point shooting.

Iowa State is jacking up poor three point shots and FSU looks far more athletic, has several steals.  FSU keeps crashing the passing lanes and picking off passes for coast-to-coast layups.  Iowa State is only 18% from three point range.  30-18 FSU at the half. 

You know, watching this makes me wonder what to wish for.  Sure, if Iowa State loses it will neutralize the home court advantage in the second round.  In fact, given that Taylor Greenfield is on our team and FSU will have beaten the home team--the crowd might actually be on our side.

But seeing Florida State makes me think it would be a much more dangerous opponent.  Natasha Howard is good--not as good as Chiney--but plenty good.  And they have a brobdingnagian 6'5" center that will make the inside game difficult on us.  They play a lot of 2-3 zone to shut down the inside game--even against a three point shooting team like ISU.  They would be better equipped to shut down Chiney than ISU, and would force us to make three point shots.

[81alum]

Right now you can watch Iowa State and FSU playing on ESPN3:
http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/_/cha...gue/NCAAW/

Florida State is demolishing Iowa State at the start of the game.  Iowa State is selling out to stop Natasha Howard (much as they would Chiney) and FSU is punishing them for doing it with 50% three point shooting.

Iowa State is jacking up poor three point shots and FSU looks far more athletic, has several steals.  FSU keeps crashing the passing lanes and picking off passes for coast-to-coast layups.  Iowa State is only 18% from three point range.  30-18 FSU at the half. 

You know, watching this makes me wonder what to wish for.  Sure, if Iowa State loses it will neutralize the home court advantage in the second round.  In fact, given that Taylor Greenfield is on our team and FSU will have beaten the home team--the crowd might actually be on our side.

But seeing Florida State makes me think it would be a much more dangerous opponent.  Natasha Howard is good--not as good as Chiney--but plenty good.  And they have a brobdingnagian 6'5" center that will make the inside game difficult on us.  They play a lot of 2-3 zone to shut down the inside game--even against a three point shooting team like ISU.  They would be better equipped to shut down Chiney than ISU, and would force us to make three point shots.

[Viking_Guy]

81A--

South Dakota first.  But yes, FSU has size, and worse yet, plays a hard match-up 2-3 zone with size on the backline and real quickness up top.  That's not a defense we've done well against this year, and our ball movement against zones is something with which Stanford always has problems.  I've watched ISU turn the ball over at the top of the zone time after time because of telegraphed easy tosses around the perimeter that look an awful lot like some of our zone offense this year.

OTOH, FSU has real turnover problems; looks like da Bares, in some ways - a quick but mercurial point guard, and a couple of big posts, but not great shooting.  They could be vulnerable if we chose to go zone.

40-30 FSU with 12:40 left.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

81A--

South Dakota first.  But yes, FSU has size, and worse yet, plays a hard match-up 2-3 zone with size on the backline and real quickness up top.  That's not a defense we've done well against this year, and our ball movement against zones is something with which Stanford always has problems.  I've watched ISU turn the ball over at the top of the zone time after time because of telegraphed easy tosses around the perimeter that look an awful lot like some of our zone offense this year.

OTOH, FSU has real turnover problems; looks like da Bares, in some ways - a quick but mercurial point guard, and a couple of big posts, but not great shooting.  They could be vulnerable if we chose to go zone.

40-30 FSU with 12:40 left.

VG