[Spiny_Norman]

A friend is a Michigan alum and subscriber to the Michigan sports magazine The Wolverine.  Quote below (my emphasis added) was in today\'s email newsletter.  The editor of the newsletter is usually viewed as a credible voice.  The report on Harbaugh is troubling if true (although you will get whiplash if as a fan you react to every rumor).  

Some tidbits on David Brandon’s upcoming evaluation of head coach Rich Rodriguez and the direction of the program, football recruiting and more…

Contrary to what has been rumored, Rodriguez did not have an idea (as of Monday) what to expect during the post-Gator Bowl evaluation, according to several sources in New York (where he and David Brandon attended an awards dinner honoring Desmond Howard, among others, for Howard’s induction into the College Football Hall of Fame). Rodriguez has made it clear he wants to be here, has handled his situation (essentially being in limbo) with grace and continues to work hard on the recruiting trail.

Today’s rumor du jour is that Brady Hoke is set to return with a group of former Michigan assistants. We can’t say it’s not possible (it’s not the first time it’s been out there, and let’s face it… by not endorsing Rodriguez, it’s clear Brandon is exploring his options), but it would be news to some of those rumored to be coming with him.

The latest Jim Harbaugh news out of Stanford, from several sources…he in no hurry to sign a contract extension and was blindsided, essentially, by his athletic director’s comments that Harbaugh intended to sign one. We’re not insinuating that it’s because Harbaugh’s taking the currently occupied Michigan job, but we are saying we don’t expect him at Stanford next year.

Here’s what else we’ve heard… those closest to the scene are indicating that there’s far for misinformation out there (the most public stuff) than information at this point, and that there’s good reason for it. Those who know David Brandon well insist there is a plan, he’s following it and it makes sense despite some who have pegged this situation as a “laughingstock.”

And there are some of those, without question.

We’re willing to see what happens before passing judgment.

As for the other rumblings, including radio shows indicating “nobody wants the Michigan job” because it’s not what it used to be… laughable. The impression Brandon has given… that he could make a change… has piqued the interest of at least one outstanding coach with NFL ties, even (we’re not saying they he’s in line for the job, but he has inquired). It should also be noted that Brandon did not solicit this as part of a search for Michigan’s next coach.

All in all, it’s still a fluid situation with very little concrete information having emerged.

[Spiny_Norman]

A friend is a Michigan alum and subscriber to the Michigan sports magazine The Wolverine.  Quote below (my emphasis added) was in today\'s email newsletter.  The editor of the newsletter is usually viewed as a credible voice.  The report on Harbaugh is troubling if true (although you will get whiplash if as a fan you react to every rumor).  

Some tidbits on David Brandon’s upcoming evaluation of head coach Rich Rodriguez and the direction of the program, football recruiting and more…

Contrary to what has been rumored, Rodriguez did not have an idea (as of Monday) what to expect during the post-Gator Bowl evaluation, according to several sources in New York (where he and David Brandon attended an awards dinner honoring Desmond Howard, among others, for Howard’s induction into the College Football Hall of Fame). Rodriguez has made it clear he wants to be here, has handled his situation (essentially being in limbo) with grace and continues to work hard on the recruiting trail.

Today’s rumor du jour is that Brady Hoke is set to return with a group of former Michigan assistants. We can’t say it’s not possible (it’s not the first time it’s been out there, and let’s face it… by not endorsing Rodriguez, it’s clear Brandon is exploring his options), but it would be news to some of those rumored to be coming with him.

The latest Jim Harbaugh news out of Stanford, from several sources…he in no hurry to sign a contract extension and was blindsided, essentially, by his athletic director’s comments that Harbaugh intended to sign one. We’re not insinuating that it’s because Harbaugh’s taking the currently occupied Michigan job, but we are saying we don’t expect him at Stanford next year.

Here’s what else we’ve heard… those closest to the scene are indicating that there’s far for misinformation out there (the most public stuff) than information at this point, and that there’s good reason for it. Those who know David Brandon well insist there is a plan, he’s following it and it makes sense despite some who have pegged this situation as a “laughingstock.”

And there are some of those, without question.

We’re willing to see what happens before passing judgment.

As for the other rumblings, including radio shows indicating “nobody wants the Michigan job” because it’s not what it used to be… laughable. The impression Brandon has given… that he could make a change… has piqued the interest of at least one outstanding coach with NFL ties, even (we’re not saying they he’s in line for the job, but he has inquired). It should also be noted that Brandon did not solicit this as part of a search for Michigan’s next coach.

All in all, it’s still a fluid situation with very little concrete information having emerged.

[JohnR34231]

Given the source of the comment I take it with a large grain of salt, and wonder if it is wishful thinking on the part of Michigan fans.

I don\'t think JH is waiting around for a Michigan offer. I do think he will listen if Michigan comes calling, contract extension or no contract extension.

[JohnR34231]

Given the source of the comment I take it with a large grain of salt, and wonder if it is wishful thinking on the part of Michigan fans.

I don\'t think JH is waiting around for a Michigan offer. I do think he will listen if Michigan comes calling, contract extension or no contract extension.

[Redrum]

Yes,  maybe Harbs was blindsided by Bowlsby\'s comments on his intent to sign the contract.   But this is like watching the cheerleaders on the sideline while there is a game going on.  The GAME is over here:
-- Either Harbs has a burning desire and love for Bo that would propel him to Michigan no matter where he was coaching....or not.  Nothing Stanford can do will change that.
-- Either Harbs is motivated by the money and prestige of the NFL and a chance to compete with his brother...or not.  Nothing Stanford can do will change that.
-- And this, which nobody talks about much:  Harbaugh\'s key advisor is his agent.   His agent has a much bigger stake in Harbaugh moving for the NFL and Michigan than he does in Harbaugh staying at Stanford.  Bigger slice of a bigger pie.  I wouldn\'t expect him to be anything more than lukewarm on a Stanford future for Jim.  Nothing Stanford can do will change the agent situation.

What Stanford can do is what Bowlsby already did.   Show him the money. Show him the love before the agent gets involved.  If there was a little bit of gamesmanship and spin thrown in,  so what?   Would it be better for Bowlsby to be "all in" on keeping Harbaugh,  or would it be better that he hold back because it just isn\'t decorous.

We\'ve done what we can do.   If it\'s Michigan,  the seeds were planted long ago and now they get to harvest.   If it\'s the NFL,  then his ambition is just too large for the Stanford/Pac-10 stage and good luck to him.

[Redrum]

Yes,  maybe Harbs was blindsided by Bowlsby\'s comments on his intent to sign the contract.   But this is like watching the cheerleaders on the sideline while there is a game going on.  The GAME is over here:
-- Either Harbs has a burning desire and love for Bo that would propel him to Michigan no matter where he was coaching....or not.  Nothing Stanford can do will change that.
-- Either Harbs is motivated by the money and prestige of the NFL and a chance to compete with his brother...or not.  Nothing Stanford can do will change that.
-- And this, which nobody talks about much:  Harbaugh\'s key advisor is his agent.   His agent has a much bigger stake in Harbaugh moving for the NFL and Michigan than he does in Harbaugh staying at Stanford.  Bigger slice of a bigger pie.  I wouldn\'t expect him to be anything more than lukewarm on a Stanford future for Jim.  Nothing Stanford can do will change the agent situation.

What Stanford can do is what Bowlsby already did.   Show him the money. Show him the love before the agent gets involved.  If there was a little bit of gamesmanship and spin thrown in,  so what?   Would it be better for Bowlsby to be "all in" on keeping Harbaugh,  or would it be better that he hold back because it just isn\'t decorous.

We\'ve done what we can do.   If it\'s Michigan,  the seeds were planted long ago and now they get to harvest.   If it\'s the NFL,  then his ambition is just too large for the Stanford/Pac-10 stage and good luck to him.

[Spiny_Norman]

My inference from this comment is that when JH moves on, he will be more interested in the NFL than another college job.  And that Michigan\'s AD will look at a broader range of candidates beyond JH if he decides to make a change.

[Spiny_Norman]

My inference from this comment is that when JH moves on, he will be more interested in the NFL than another college job.  And that Michigan\'s AD will look at a broader range of candidates beyond JH if he decides to make a change.

[Robbie]

Don\'t forget the other major advisors: his wife and the rest of his family.

Maybe his wife loves the bay area and never wants to move somewhere cold. Maybe not.

Maybe his brother thinks that NFL is a meat grinder that will chew you up and spit you out. Maybe he thinks that professional coaching offers a level of success that cannot be beat.

Maybe his father thinks that an extended stay as a college coach allows you to build generations of young men and point them toward excellence in a way that the professional ranks never will. Maybe he thinks that he never got a chance to reach the highest rungs, and wants to push his sons to reach for something he never had.

All any of the rest of us is doing is hypothesizing based on no evidence. Mysticism is no way to make accurate predictions. We\'ll see what happens.

[Robbie]

Don\'t forget the other major advisors: his wife and the rest of his family.

Maybe his wife loves the bay area and never wants to move somewhere cold. Maybe not.

Maybe his brother thinks that NFL is a meat grinder that will chew you up and spit you out. Maybe he thinks that professional coaching offers a level of success that cannot be beat.

Maybe his father thinks that an extended stay as a college coach allows you to build generations of young men and point them toward excellence in a way that the professional ranks never will. Maybe he thinks that he never got a chance to reach the highest rungs, and wants to push his sons to reach for something he never had.

All any of the rest of us is doing is hypothesizing based on no evidence. Mysticism is no way to make accurate predictions. We\'ll see what happens.

[needle]

With a brother currently an NFL coach and a dad who coached for 10+ years as the head guy in one spot, as well as personal experience at a football factory like Michigan, Harbaugh can truly make an informed decision.

[needle]

With a brother currently an NFL coach and a dad who coached for 10+ years as the head guy in one spot, as well as personal experience at a football factory like Michigan, Harbaugh can truly make an informed decision.

[Farm93]

My belief is that JH knows all of the available salary options.  There is likely little need for him to do the hypothetical thing, like we are trying to complete here.

Clearly he now knows exactly how much Stanford will offer for 2011.  He almost certainly knows how much Michigan would pay.  As a public school RichRod\'s contract is public info, and I would guess he already knows what multiplier he could apply to any UM deal.  (I would bet good money that UM affiliates have told him long ago how much he could expect if he ever decided to give them a call)  And almost all NFL contracts are known too, so his potential NFL salary range would be easy to estimate with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

So salary and terms are likely very clear.  And all choices have been in play for months and/or years.  If JH told Michigan he wanted to coach there in 2011, my guess is RichRod would be fired 5 minutes later.  If he wants the NFL there are always a half dozen openings or more.

It just comes down to personal things (career objectives, minimum salary, job security, etc.)  Stanford can change the monetary compensation, but my guess is that maximizing the 2011 annual salary will not be the key.

[Farm93]

My belief is that JH knows all of the available salary options.  There is likely little need for him to do the hypothetical thing, like we are trying to complete here.

Clearly he now knows exactly how much Stanford will offer for 2011.  He almost certainly knows how much Michigan would pay.  As a public school RichRod\'s contract is public info, and I would guess he already knows what multiplier he could apply to any UM deal.  (I would bet good money that UM affiliates have told him long ago how much he could expect if he ever decided to give them a call)  And almost all NFL contracts are known too, so his potential NFL salary range would be easy to estimate with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

So salary and terms are likely very clear.  And all choices have been in play for months and/or years.  If JH told Michigan he wanted to coach there in 2011, my guess is RichRod would be fired 5 minutes later.  If he wants the NFL there are always a half dozen openings or more.

It just comes down to personal things (career objectives, minimum salary, job security, etc.)  Stanford can change the monetary compensation, but my guess is that maximizing the 2011 annual salary will not be the key.

[Pastor]

Were I writing the JH contract, I would put a very, very large amount in an annuity that vests over a 10 year period at about 7% a year with a balloon for year 10.

[Pastor]

Were I writing the JH contract, I would put a very, very large amount in an annuity that vests over a 10 year period at about 7% a year with a balloon for year 10.

[Mick]

Were I writing the JH contract, I would put a very, very large amount in an annuity that vests over a 10 year period at about 7% a year with a balloon for year 10.

...the more I think that we don\'t have a JoePa type coach because we haven\'t created a JoePa-type incentive system.  And I don\'t mean the type of contract that Paterno has, I mean one that offers an itinerant coach the kind of security that coaches never, ever, ever get.

We have a young coach that has exhibited success literally everywhere he\'s been, was a Voldemort finalist himself, and has now coached two Voldemort finalists.  He took a team from 1-11 to 11-1 (and hopefully 12-1) in four years.  And honestly, if two plays in the Oregon game had gone differently...the onside kick recovery by Oregon and the failure to call a hold on Stanford\'s DB during Oregon\'s long TD run, maybe Stanford is in the BCS championship game.  Hell, if the game is played at Stanford, I think Stanford\'s in the BCS championship game.

I wouldn\'t offer a long-term annuity to a coach.  For me, I don\'t really trust them.  There\'s a local retail organization that (at least two years ago) offered its managers a large, very long term annuity that paid off brobdingnagian, but only at the end of a very long period (more than a decade, less than two).  And the contracts are at will, and they can let go of employees for any reason at any time.  I had heard that no one had ever collected the annuity, but I\'m not certain if that\'s the case now.  My point is, the staff at the company distrusts the annuity, and discount it as an effective tool.

On the other hand...if you want a great coach for life, why not offer him a contract for life?  Coach Harbaugh, your work has been incredible, Stanford wants to reward you with a lifetime contract of $x annually with a CPI rider.  You\'ll never want again.  Whaddaya say?"

So crazy it just might work.

[Mick]

Were I writing the JH contract, I would put a very, very large amount in an annuity that vests over a 10 year period at about 7% a year with a balloon for year 10.

...the more I think that we don\'t have a JoePa type coach because we haven\'t created a JoePa-type incentive system.  And I don\'t mean the type of contract that Paterno has, I mean one that offers an itinerant coach the kind of security that coaches never, ever, ever get.

We have a young coach that has exhibited success literally everywhere he\'s been, was a Voldemort finalist himself, and has now coached two Voldemort finalists.  He took a team from 1-11 to 11-1 (and hopefully 12-1) in four years.  And honestly, if two plays in the Oregon game had gone differently...the onside kick recovery by Oregon and the failure to call a hold on Stanford\'s DB during Oregon\'s long TD run, maybe Stanford is in the BCS championship game.  Hell, if the game is played at Stanford, I think Stanford\'s in the BCS championship game.

I wouldn\'t offer a long-term annuity to a coach.  For me, I don\'t really trust them.  There\'s a local retail organization that (at least two years ago) offered its managers a large, very long term annuity that paid off brobdingnagian, but only at the end of a very long period (more than a decade, less than two).  And the contracts are at will, and they can let go of employees for any reason at any time.  I had heard that no one had ever collected the annuity, but I\'m not certain if that\'s the case now.  My point is, the staff at the company distrusts the annuity, and discount it as an effective tool.

On the other hand...if you want a great coach for life, why not offer him a contract for life?  Coach Harbaugh, your work has been incredible, Stanford wants to reward you with a lifetime contract of $x annually with a CPI rider.  You\'ll never want again.  Whaddaya say?"

So crazy it just might work.

[Pastor]

The annuity could be backed by the endowment....

But I once proposed that we offer TvD tenture....

[Pastor]

The annuity could be backed by the endowment....

But I once proposed that we offer TvD tenture....

[Robbie]

JoePa is not in State College forever because he has an extremely long-term contract. He doesn\'t.

Paterno is in State College forever because he wants to. You cannot replace desire.

Harbaugh knows that the goodwill he has already generated in Palo Alto could last him through many 4-8 (or worse) seasons. He\'s not concerned with getting fired. Tenure isn\'t the answer.

Is money an issue? Perhaps to some degree, but Stanford is not going to outbid other suitors for Harbaugh\'s services. Stanford may be roughly comparable, but Harbaugh is never going to stay in Palo Alto because of sweet financial terms.

If he stays it will be because he likes it there. He will stay because Stanford offers a unique environment where the ability and resources for success are available, the people who surround him (both inside and outside football) excel in everything they do, and yet the demands for immediate and perpetual success are less than they would be in a higher-pressure (and higher-profile) environment.

[Robbie]

JoePa is not in State College forever because he has an extremely long-term contract. He doesn\'t.

Paterno is in State College forever because he wants to. You cannot replace desire.

Harbaugh knows that the goodwill he has already generated in Palo Alto could last him through many 4-8 (or worse) seasons. He\'s not concerned with getting fired. Tenure isn\'t the answer.

Is money an issue? Perhaps to some degree, but Stanford is not going to outbid other suitors for Harbaugh\'s services. Stanford may be roughly comparable, but Harbaugh is never going to stay in Palo Alto because of sweet financial terms.

If he stays it will be because he likes it there. He will stay because Stanford offers a unique environment where the ability and resources for success are available, the people who surround him (both inside and outside football) excel in everything they do, and yet the demands for immediate and perpetual success are less than they would be in a higher-pressure (and higher-profile) environment.

[jacketree]

I don\'t think lifetime contracts are a good idea for either party, because so much can change, but then again I don\'t think tenure is a good idea for professors either.

Harbaugh has all the leverage right now, and I doubt contract "security" is much of a concern for him.  His security is that he is good, portable, and in demand.  That might change of course, but if it does, why would Stanford want to be saddled with a lifetime contract for some guy who is no longer in demand, lost the magic touch or just starts losing all the time?

[jacketree]

I don\'t think lifetime contracts are a good idea for either party, because so much can change, but then again I don\'t think tenure is a good idea for professors either.

Harbaugh has all the leverage right now, and I doubt contract "security" is much of a concern for him.  His security is that he is good, portable, and in demand.  That might change of course, but if it does, why would Stanford want to be saddled with a lifetime contract for some guy who is no longer in demand, lost the magic touch or just starts losing all the time?

[Pastor]

As a friend says, money is how they keep score.

[Pastor]

As a friend says, money is how they keep score.