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Oregon game thread - TrumpCard - 03-01-2015

Stanford is down 6 at the half.  Oregon played most of the half with no one on the court over 6'7", yet still out-rebounded Stanford.  That is unacceptable.  Let's hope that the foul trouble starts to mount for Oregon, as that appears to be Stanford's best chance to pull out a win. 

Re: Oregon game thread - TrumpCard - 03-01-2015

Not many people interested in Stanford men's basketball, I see.  The outcome of this game helps to explain that. 

Re: Oregon game thread - Ratmandoo - 03-01-2015

I watched it from the start but commenting during games isn't really my thing.

The worst thing about the Dawkins era is the pass the ball around the perimeter offense, set no meaningful screens or make any hard cuts, let the shot clock wind down to to under 10 seconds and then run a high pick and roll with Randle and either Nastic or Humphries. Apparently yelling at the TV screen for our guys to move on offense doesn't seem to work.

Oregon didn't do anything different on defense all day and there wasn't a single adjustment made. I can think of one time in the second half where we ran a decent play on offense (it was a simple pin down screen by Nastic to free up Brown for a wide open elbow jumper early in the shot clock). The only early offense that was run was either on a fast break or a three point attempt jacked up off a screen. Miserable basketball to watch.

Re: Oregon game thread - Papa John - 03-01-2015

Well, this may not have been the final home game for the seniors. Unfortunately, that means a tournament other than the one for which I have been hoping--even almost expecting--since the win over Texas. Man, that win seems so long ago...

Re: Oregon game thread - winflop - 03-02-2015

I was on a plane but was able to watch the game.  Only major shortcoming was the execution in the final two minutes which we've all seen too many times.  When you have SUCH a big size advantage in the paint, you have got to get the ball into the hands of your bigs.  If they are left 1v1 then they should be getting a good look, and if the defense collapses then someone is wide open from outside.  Work the ball, work the clock.  This team has failed to do this enough this season.

Bottom line:  Stanford is 0-3 vs the two other teams with whom they are competing for at most two NCAA bids.  Barring an upset of AZ or Utah, they are bound for the Not Important Tournament.

Once again I am left with a feeling that this team had the talent to make the Big Dance and came up short.

One stat of note:  So far this season, Stanford is 3-5 in games decided by 5pts or fewer (including all OT games).  Stanford has only been above 50% twice in Dawkins' tenure, including last season, and his career record is under 40%.  If Stanford pulls out one or two of those games this season, or two seasons ago, there is a VERY different conversation about Stanford MBB both on this board and elsewhere.

Re: Oregon game thread - OutsiderFan - 03-02-2015

I'm not a brobdingnagian hoops fan and don't know much about the Xs & Os of the game, but...

Claiming Stanford "had the talent to make the NCAA tournament, I think misses the point.  IMO, Stanford should be no worse than 21-7 and a shoe-in for the NCAA tournament.  DePaul, at UCLA, and it sure seems this Oregon game, should have been wins, and the Texas game never should have gone to OT.

The bar should be being set at getting further than the team went last year, not just getting into the NCAA tournament.  Dawkins has proven he is nothing more than mediocre.  Is that really what Stanford is going to accept?

Re: Oregon game thread - Treebound - 03-02-2015

OF, see the other thread on this topic.  Dawkins IS mediocre and most of us know it and many here have voted with their wallets and have given up their season tickets.  He has a great pedigree and he can recruit, but his ability to make in game adjustments and develop his players is mediocre.  Muir wasn't here when we were top 10 with a packed house and tents of students 2-3 days before game day.   

The house was almost full last night due to a good reading related promotion by the AD.  It was a very good atmosphere but we just weren't hungry enough.  If you can't get up for senior day and a chance to go to the Dance against a beatable team, then you deserve the NIT.  I've held onto my seats, but I'm now solidly leaning out.  Sad.  I expect the same outcome next year...just missing the NCAAs and a "wait until next year" mantra. 

Re: Oregon game thread - OutsiderFan - 03-02-2015

Honestly, the situation seems like something you'd see at Ca.l, not Stanford.  Team is decent but can't get over the hump.  That's good enough for the admin that really cares not about winning championships.  Now look, the built-in excuse for next season:  Randle and Brown are gone, so it's kind of a re-building year. 

Just don't expect to see settling for mediocrity the Stanford MO, so must say I'm pretty surprised Dawkins isn't on the hot seat.

Re: Oregon game thread - Treebound - 03-02-2015

You've nailed it with the comparison to UCB.  I've stated before that Dawkins is our Ben Braun equivalent.  "Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it."  We will be repeating the NIT two-step for quite some time.    Seeing some of the hoops alums in the stands last night, it made me wonder that had one of the Lopi stayed one more year (as he should have), then Plumlee would have matriculated, Trent would have stayed..... ah - too painful. 

Re: Oregon game thread - BostonCard - 03-02-2015

Judging Dawkins by the totality of his tenure at Stanford, he shouldn't be our coach.  As others have noted, I don't think Dawkins is the guy to take Stanford to the status of perennial contender, which is where we want to be.  We may not be a truly elite basketball school a la Kentucky or Duke, but it is reasonable to expect making the tournament most years, regularly contending for the Pac-12 championship, and occasionally being in the national picture.  Instead, we have made the NCAA tournament once, have never sniffed a Pac-12 championship, and are no where near the national picture.

BC

Re: Oregon game thread - Spiny_Norman - 03-02-2015

(03-02-2015, 01:21 PM)Treebound link Wrote:it made me wonder that had one of the Lopi stayed one more year (as he should have), then Plumlee would have matriculated, Trent would have stayed..... ah - too painful.

Treebound, are you pining for Trent Johnson?  At the time he left, the fan feelings about him were similar to those about Dawkins now.  Even with talented players, his teams struggled to compete in the Pac 10 except for his final season.  He has had no success at LSU or TCU since leaving Stanford.  I think fans would have soured on him in time just as Bowlsby did.

Re: Oregon game thread - BostonCard - 03-02-2015

I agree.  Often times the debate has been presented as Trent Johnson versus Johny Dawkins, as if it was a binary choice.  However, over the long term, I'm not sure either of them would have been great for Stanford.  I put my opinion of Dawkins earlier in this thread, but my suspicion is that if Johnson had stayed, he would have struggled as well once the Lopez brothers left.  The depth of our fall probably wouldn't have been so great on account of Plumlee staying, but I doubt we'd be much better than ok.

BC

Re: Oregon game thread - washingtonismoney - 03-02-2015

Given Johnson's massive struggles post-Stanford,* it seems much more likely than not that he'd struggle at Stanford in the alternate timeline.

* (he's struggled worse than Dawkins: .391 in SEC conference games at LSU; .071! at TCU. Dawkins is .463, inadequate but not disastrous.

Re: Oregon game thread - winflop - 03-02-2015

(03-02-2015, 03:35 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:I don't think Dawkins is the guy to take Stanford to the status of perennial contender, which is where we want to be.

My bar is a little lower.  I expect that more often than not, Stanford makes the NCAA tournament without squeaking in and contends for a conference title.  Neither of these has happened during Dawkins' entire tenure.

The dynamics of college basketball have changed, but not to such a degree that this level of mediocrity is acceptable.

Re: Oregon game thread - Treebound - 03-02-2015

(03-02-2015, 03:49 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:[quote author=Treebound link=topic=11809.msg113987#msg113987 date=1425327710]
it made me wonder that had one of the Lopi stayed one more year (as he should have), then Plumlee would have matriculated, Trent would have stayed..... ah - too painful.

Treebound, are you pining for Trent Johnson?  At the time he left, the fan feelings about him were similar to those about Dawkins now.  Even with talented players, his teams struggled to compete in the Pac 10 except for his final season.  He has had no success at LSU or TCU since leaving Stanford.  I think fans would have soured on him in time just as Bowlsby did.
[/quote]

Spiny and BC, you are right to call me out on the Trent Johnson comment.  I was NOT a big Trent fan, but his departure marked the beginning of our downward spiral.  Like you, I suspect he would have slowly dropped our record, but with a Lopez and a Plumlee on the team, I like to think we might have held serve for a few more years and then hired someone better (not Dawkins).  What I do know is that the players of the time and those that played before them all liked Trent and pushed for him.  My knock on him originally was his recruiting as the Lopi were already delivered. 

It's all water under the bridge at this point...just like our season.  I don't see this team pulling off the upset versus UofA with Lute in the stands.  The in-game coaching and execution down the stretch last night killed us and was painful to watch.  We have fallen very, very far in 10 years.  I still hope they prove me wrong.  Do we get a bid if we split in the desert and make it to the P12 final?  That is likely our only hope.

Re: Oregon game thread - winflop - 03-03-2015

(03-02-2015, 11:29 PM)Treebound link Wrote:Do we get a bid if we split in the desert and make it to the P12 final?  That is likely our only hope.

If making the P12 final includes an upset of either Utah or Arizona then I think they could jump into the zero round and then lose in Dayton.  But I'm not sure they have enough left in their physical and emotional gas tanks to even beat ASU who has improved over the course of the season and may need to win that game to make the NIT.

Re: Oregon game thread - winflop - 03-03-2015

Interesting interview that RJ Abetiya did with Casey Jacobsen after the game (Casey was doing color for FS1).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLV36fXuvEU


At 0:55 mark: "I felt like a lot of the times Stanford was confused on where and when to get shots."

The Ducks didn't play defense any different than they have all year.  If the players didn't know where the shots were, that is first and foremost a coaching failure for not correctly analyzing film.  At this point in the season, there's really no excuse for that.