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We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - Printable Version

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We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - washingtonismoney - 11-28-2010

WHOOOOO!!!!!!

Herbie voted us #3 - Redrum - 11-28-2010

Wisconsin and MSU done,  so not much juice to move up...only (sigh) politics.

Rod Gilmore (ex-Stanford) voted us #3.  Attaboy, Rod.  Questions the quality of TCU\'s schedule.   Sees TCU\'s position eroding on strength of schedule.

Craig James has us #3.  TCU #5

Chris Fowler doesn\'t see much change.  Posits that if Auburn loses will we see an Oregon/Stanford rematch?   Says, "we\'ve seen that game already.  Stanford lost by 20 points."

Herbie says moved STanford over TCU because of strength of schedule.  "If you really watch Stanford (they pass the eyeball test)

(Some other guy) Chris Spielman ?  Teams that playing the best right now are  Oregon, Auburn, Stanford and Wisconsin"

Chris Fowler;  Would have hard time voting for a one-loss Auburn (to keep them in NC game.   Some others were saying, in essence,  Auburn because of its immaculate SEC-ness, would still be a credible top four even with one loss in the SEC championship game.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - JeffInCorvallis - 11-28-2010

Sweet!  Unless something really weird happens we are set for a BCS bowl.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - Leftcoast - 11-28-2010

It\'s the BCS .... cross your fingers and hold your breath because weird things can happen.  

Here\'s a link to an ESPN report on the BCS release.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=schlabach_mark&id=5860844

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - readarmy1976 - 11-28-2010

big lead on wisconsin. we are headed for a BCS bowl. the only question now is can we squeeze into the national championship game. stoked for our players.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - Farm93 - 11-28-2010

Weird things can happen, and have happened to other Pac-10 teams.

Let\'s review...
Auburn loses -
People question if TCU is worthy of the BCS game.  Forced to reassess that non-AQ story, the people polls really shake it up to try to get TCU out AND also avoid a Pac-10 re-match.  Wisconsin is higher in the people polls.  Wisconsin is a conference champ.  And no one would really want Oregon v. Stanford.  So the people voters submit crazy polls like Oregon, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, Auburn, Stanford, TCU.  All if an effort to keep TCU and Stanford out of the game against Oregon.

Oregon loses -
Same anti-TCU stuff, but with less damage to Stanford\'s standing IMHO.

Oregon and Auburn both lose -
This should be good for Stanford, but crazy voters could mess it up for Stanford (see below)

But there is one that is very troubling.
Oklahoma loses-
Oklahoma is wedged in between Stanford and Wisconsin in the computers, so an Oklahoma loss would help Wisconsin in the BCS standings.  It would be close.  Wisconsin could be #4, but it gets worse.  Oklahoma would then be an eligible at-large.  The Orange Bowl would be free to select any team rather than the two team choice currently discussed because Stanford is #5.  They select Oklahoma, obviously, in this scenario.  The Fiesta Bowl would then have to take the weak Big East team.

Want others???
The Big Ten clearly had three possible BCS teams.  The BCS standings determine the Rose Bowl team in the event of a three way tie.   There were likely politics that drove some voters to suppress their Wisconsin ranking if they were OSU or Michigan State loyalists.  Now that it is more clear, they might decide to re-establish Wisconsin next week in a more proper place.

Want more??
If Oregon and Auburn lose it should be good for Stanford.  However, that previously divided Big Ten voting block would clearly understand the opportunity.  Vote Wisconsin big, suppress Stanford & TCU, and get Wisconsin into the BCS championship game.

The good news is that at this point the media will talk about Stanford going to the some BCS game.  So if Stanford slides to #5 there might be just enough inertia that the BCS powers understand they need to find a home for Stanford or risk that government backlash they fear so much.

Those are my best doomsday examples.  #4 is beautiful, but it will look a lot better next weekend.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - dabigv13 - 11-28-2010

Really appreciate herbies\' support, he seems like one of the most well informed national commentators and I think his opinion is the most well respected of all the ESPN talking heads. Still, TCU has a solid lead in the computers over us, and that won\'t change in a week. Short of massive TCU voter defection, they would go to the NCG if one team falters, not us. We would need a lot of voters to elevate us over both wisco and tcu.

If both Oregon and Auburn lose however, I think we have a very credible chance of going to the NCG. We will be ahead of Oregon in the computers for sure, and possibly Auburn as well. We should also cross our fingers for a speedy NCAA investigation into Newtongate.

Luckily our lead over wisco is ironclad. There is literally no scenario they could pass us. Zero chance.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - JeffInCorvallis - 11-28-2010

I like the scenario where Oregon AND Auburn lose to try to draft into the NCG, but I fear what the ESPN talking heads were talking about - everybody takes the opportunity to re-evaluate everything and the whole thing is up for grabs.  Human voters decide Wisconsin or Ohio State should be in the NCG instead of us.  As whacky as it sounds, status quo might be better for us - With no big upsets it\'s hard to change the pecking order of the top 6.


Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - fyao - 11-28-2010

Are voters allowed to be that corrupt?  That is, one week they vote us no. 5, the next week they can vote us say no. 9 even though teams ahead of us lost and we didn\'t play?

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - Farm93 - 11-28-2010

These are doomsday scenarios to be sure, but how long have you been following the Pac-10 Doc888?

Scott Frost, a one time Stanford player, took Nebraska into a bowl game and won big in the 1997 season.  Then he gave a passionate plea to the voters to vote Nebraska as the National champs.  They were not #1 going into the game, and #1 Michigan won in the Rose Bowl game.  Nonetheless, Nebraska got a split of the title.

But that was pre-BCS.  The mother of all lobbying was done by Mack Brown of Texas.  He jumped into the media the week before the last vote and essentially said that Texas was due.  Texas had been so close to getting into a BCS bowl for a few years, and looked destined to just miss once again.  The voters agreed with Brown and raised Texas over C.a.l on a week that C.a.l won.  Texas went to the Rose Bowl, C.a.l was kicked out.

Texas looked good, and used that to springboard into the BCS NC game the next year.  Amazingly enough in the Rose Bowl.  And with that earlier experience Texas upset Reggie Bush and USC.  Which in retrospect was a good thing since USC would have had to vacate that title.

In any event, that Brown plea was a pure voters\' special.

It has happened before and will happen again.  The good news is that it is unlikely this time because the teams right behind Stanford will be getting what they want anyway.  Wisconsin will go to the Rose Bowl.  Ohio State will go to the Sugar Bowl.  So there is no reason to force votes for them.

However, if losses are plentiful and things really get tossed up then all bets are off.  Let\'s just say, thanks to the C.a.l experience I know not to count on that BCS #4 thing before the final vote.  

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - jacketree - 11-28-2010

Interesting thoughts, particularly the doomsday scenario, whereby both Auburn and Oregon lose so voters decide for a big reset on everything.  One nearly impossible doomsday scenario listed here would be a 3-loss Oklahoma team sneaking past 1-loss Stanford.

Interesting viewing this weekend:

Army-Navy.  Love that game.
Civil War. Really interested to see what the Beavers do in Corvallis coming out of the woodshed. I think we root for the Ducks, to keep the Rose alive.
SEC Championship. I guess we root for USC to keep the Rose alive.
ACC Championship. Possible preview of Orange Bowl opponent, particularly if FSU wins and attendance isn\'t a brobdingnagian issue.  Orange picks first.
Big XII Championship. Ditto for Fiesta.
Big East scores on the ticker. If WVA wins the conference, I\'m betting on Fiesta.
BCS Selection Show!


Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - fyao - 11-28-2010

Sounds like you are agreeing with Jeff, Farm.   That would mean that if either Oregon State and Auburn or both lose, teams like Wisconsin and Arkansas will play for the national championship. But to make sure they leapfrog us, they\'ll have to vote us as no. 9, which would mean we might finish no. 5 in the bcs and we\'ll go to the Alamo Bowl.

I\'ve been following Stanford since Pac-8 days.  Mike Boryla was qb, followed by Mike, oh never mind.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - needle - 11-29-2010

Voters would unite to oppose an all Pac Natl. Champ. Game.

There will never be a NCG with both teams from the same conference, certainly not when they met in the regular season already.

So, my best guess is that if Oregon wins and Auburn loses, it\'s Wisco who might rise to number two b/c of voter collusion--which might mean the top four would be Oregon, Wisco, TCU and...????.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - JeffInCorvallis - 11-29-2010

If I\'m a completely unbiased fan I vote no on a NCG that is a rematch of a regular season game, especially two teams from the same conference.

As a Stanford fan, of course, I\'d love to see a rematch with the Ducks, and I like our chances on a neutral field.



Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - dabigv13 - 11-29-2010

The thing is, voters would really have to do a number on the vote to overcome Wisco\'s lack of computer support. If we ignore TCU, and the fact that their computer lead is pretty significant over us, Wisco would still not be the #2 team even if they were voted as such in the polls because of our computer lead over them.

I\'m not saying it\'s not possible for the voters to influence things, but I think they would do so by elevating Wisco, not dropping Stanford, and I\'m not sure that would get it done.

It\'s moot anyways because of TCU, but I personally think all this doomsday scenario talk is just hogwash- voters might not elevate us as they should, but I highly doubt they would significantly drop us.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - fyao - 11-29-2010

Dabigv, what if the only way to insure that Wisconsin passes us is to degrade us?  Each individual voter doesn\'t know how much is needed, so they overkill and we drop out of the top 4.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - dabigv13 - 11-29-2010

I doubt many voters would drop us- even in the screwing of kal a few years back, most of the push was Texas being elevated, and only a few ballots dropped kal like a hot potato.

That being said, I just ran the numbers and if Wisco were to get bumped significantly, they could pass us. I just ran the numbers combining Wisco\'s computer rankings with TCU\'s poll numbers (remember it\'s total votes, not poll position), and they would narrowly edge us out. Now TCU is significantly ahead of Wisco in the polls, and are much closer to us than they are to TCU. It would require a big vote shift.

Re: We\'re Number Four! We\'re Number Four! - Farm93 - 11-29-2010

It is unlikely, but not without precedent.  That is all I was trying to say.  

When Stanford is #4 in the FINAL BCS Standings then I will be happy.  The Pac-10 has a rich history of having things happen that should not have happened.  And that was with teams with large alumni bases (Oregon, USC, C.a.l).

I am not seeing a ton of love for TCU, and that is problematic.  If Auburn loses, TCU should be in the BCS game.  The only way to "fix" things is to elevate Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State ahead of TCU and Stanford.  BTW - That final vote would be easy to defend.

If Stanford is outside of the "Rule of 4" then it is absolutely possible that the best at-large Big 12 option (Nebraska/Oklahoma & Oklahoma State) would be picked by the Orange/Fiesta bowl instead of 11-1 Stanford.

So the status quo has Stanford in the Orange Bowl if Uconn wins this weekend or in the Fiesta Bowl if Uconn loses.  That stable & predictable situation seems OK.

The Auburn losing path should put Stanford in the Rose Bowl or even the NCG, but it could put Stanford in the Alamo bowl.   In that scenario, the Alamo bowl would still be unlikely, but it could happen.

FWIW - I think if Auburn loses, the easiest way to "fix" things is for the people voters to just put Auburn at #2 because an Auburn loss to South Carolina would not put Auburn below TCU in the computers.