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Point spread range - Printable Version

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Point spread range - Mick - 12-22-2013

Nine Pac-10 teams, one massive win for USC, one total neck-constricting meltdown by WSU.  Seven games left, all Pac-10 teams favored.

Here's what is interesting to me.  I looked at 1/2 dozen major sports books, and their odds all fall to within 1/2 point of each other...all except Stanford vs. Michigan State, as follows with the low spread first, then the high spread:

Washington State loss
USC Fresno State win
Stanford Michigan State -4.5 -6.0
Arizona State Texas Tech -14.0 -14.5
Arizona Boston College -7.0 -7.5
Oregon Texas -13.5 -14.0
Oregon State Boise State -3.0 -3.5
UCLA Virginia Tech -7.0 -7.5
Washington BYU -3.0 -3.5

Why such a broad spread for the Rose Bowl?  You can get -4.5 at the MGM Mirage or -6.0 at the Wynn.  I wonder what, if anything, that signifies.

Re: Point spread range - pincemob - 12-22-2013

It may not mean much.  One casino could be advertising a high (or low) point spread to draw attention to themselves, but perhaps only paying out ~80 cents instead of ~90 cents on the dollar to cover their risk on average.

Whether you go back 100 years or to 1990, only about 25% of Rose Bowls have a final point spread within 5 points or less.  If you pick the winning team you are typically going to beat the spread.  Stanford is a little different animal because we tend to not punctuate our games with late touchdowns as much as other winning teams do, though.   

Re: Point spread range - washingtonismoney - 12-22-2013

(12-22-2013, 09:46 AM)Mick link Wrote:Why such a broad spread for the Rose Bowl?  You can get -4.5 at the MGM Mirage or -6.0 at the Wynn.  I wonder what, if anything, that signifies.

Yeah, you'd think this is a natural arb opportunity. The only thing I can think of it's that maybe they're trying to hedge their exposure with other bets (did some casinos offer really long preseason odds of an MSU Rose Bowl victory?)