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Opening Vegas Lines - Bruce Wang - 06-07-2013

Golden Nuggest announces their opening lines for this coming season.

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/college-football-game-of-the-year-lines.php

Arizona St @ Stanford (-10)
Stanford (-18.5) @ Washington St
Washington @ Stanford (-10)
Stanford (-13) @ Utah
UCLA @ Stanford (-10)
Stanford (-3) @ Oregon St
Oregon (-4) @ Stanford
Stanford @ USC (-1)
California @ Stanford (-22)
Notre Dame @ Stanford (-5.5)

Observations:
1. Oregon favored despite the home game and departure of Chip.  Given that our team won that on defense and could have been by a wider margin due to some missed opportunities, I don't think the victory was a fluke.
2. $C slight favorite probably a function of handicapping for the LA overbetting phenomenon.
3. Kal/Dykes getting the least respect

If the bachelor party I'm going to this summer is in Vegas, I'm betting on the Oregon and $C games.


Re: Opening Vegas Lines - washingtonismoney - 06-07-2013

Actually, the N.D. game is probably the most suspicious line to me, knowing what we know right now.

IF:
a) we were even with them last year in their place
b) despite starting Josh Nunes
c) despite their starting Everett Golson

That implies more than a 5.5 point swing to me. Rule of thumb is 6 pt swing -- so if status quo, we should be favored by six. Somehow N.D. got a half point better than us during the offseason? Seems unlikely.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - Farm93 - 06-07-2013

All in all, the spreads seem reasonable.

Stanford could be in the BCS CG mix early, and might even get to the #1 ranking in early October.  Then when the second half of the season rolls along the schedule could be brutal, but if Stanford survives they will have earned that BCS CG spot.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - FarmBoy - 06-07-2013

The home/away mix definitely favors Stanford this year (@ Utah / home ASU, @ WSU, home UW, @OSU / home UO, home Notre Dame).

I'm actually kind of nervous about the SJSU. Aren't they returning the core of their passing offense that gave us trouble and only improved as the season went on? That could be a tough early test that the rest of the country won't value from a ranking perspective. I wonder what the spread will be for that one.

I agree the ND line is not realistic, but it probably takes into account all of the ND homers who bet their team to beat the spread no matter the reality.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - terry - 06-07-2013

Trying to set point spreads so far in advance is kind of silly. I understand there are people who will bet on anything, but really, this is ridiculous.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - Extra Point - 06-07-2013

I am worried about San Jose State because season openers are generally sloppy for all teams. In general, the most improvement over the course of a season occurs between the first and second game. This will be Stanford's first game and San Jose's second. They will also have had one more week of practice. I expect San Jose to put on a much better show than they would if both teams were playing their opener.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - JohnR34231 - 06-07-2013

(06-07-2013, 08:56 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Actually, the N.D. game is probably the most suspicious line to me, knowing what we know right now.

IF:
a) we were even with them last year in their place
b) despite starting Josh Nunes
c) despite their starting Everett Golson

That implies more than a 5.5 point swing to me. Rule of thumb is 6 pt swing -- so if status quo, we should be favored by six. Somehow N.D. got a half point better than us during the offseason? Seems unlikely.

Wasn't it Tommy Rees, who will probably be the starting QB when we play them, the guy who came off the bench and won the game for them in the second half.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - washingtonismoney - 06-07-2013

(06-07-2013, 11:38 AM)JPRI link Wrote:Wasn't it Tommy Rees, who will probably be the starting QB when we play them, the guy who came off the bench and won the game for them in the second half.

Well, if you want to get into spurious correlations, sure.

Actually, it was:
a) Tommy Rees throwing up a few passes that traveled like an obese man's belch -- high, languorous, and ugly -- towards its intended targets, which made bail-out catches to get them
b) poor calls by referees, and I'm not referring primarily to the endzone call.

The 2011 Stanford/N.D. game is much more representative of what happens when Tommy Rees is the VIP invite to a #partyinthebackfield.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - PrinceLightfoot - 06-07-2013

Tommy Rees (a.k.a sack magnet) is also the QB in 2011 that he was benched for Hendrix. Back then he had Floyd and Eifert...this go around he has neither with no obvious stud-receiver to fill either players' shoes. It should be interesting.

Concerning SJSU, the Stanford defense will probably not be as pedestrian in their approach as they were last year. The blitz packages really didn't begin until towards the end of the third quarter.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - CowboyIndian - 06-07-2013

10-point favorites over UCLA? I like the optimism for Homecoming, but I can't agree with it.

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - washingtonismoney - 06-07-2013

(06-07-2013, 01:07 PM)CowboyIndian link Wrote:10-point favorites over UCLA? I like the optimism for Homecoming, but I can't agree with it.

It's an interesting line. I have a hard time assessing UCLA.

PROS:
1) high-upside QB who has top-ten draft pick potential
2) experienced offensive line
3) a guy in the conversation for highest-impact defensive player in the Pac-12, Anthony Barr

CONS:
1) Only returning 11/12 starters, depending on whether Odigizhuwa returns or not
2) iffy special teams, defense
3) Neuheisel recruited (in terms of ratings) really well at first, before falling off once it became obvious his regime at UCLA wasn't working out. And Mora has started recruiting well. But there's a gap in the middle -- unfortunately for Mora, that gap has to take charge now. The start-off-with-a-bang before regressing a bit pattern is pretty common in college football -- see Charlie Weis and Brady Hoke.
4) not a lot of proven playmakers behind the headline names; not a ton of depth.

?:
1) How good a coach is Mora, really? His first UCLA team certainly passed the eye test. On the other hand,  he had the benefit of a lot of Neuheisel leftovers plus a pretty soft schedule. And his NFL coaching career was not exactly exemplary.

I think it's fair to say there's a lot undetermined about the UCLA team. I wouldn't be surprised by a wide range of results this year -- the only team in the Pac-12 I think is as difficult to predict are their LA rivals. (Third place: ASU.)

Re: Opening Vegas Lines - fullmetal - 06-07-2013

UCLA will be a tough nut to crack.  I may make a trip back to campus for that one (reunion weekend w/ friends of different class years).