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WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - 81alum - 01-25-2012

C.AL comes to play on Saturday, and the conventional wisdom is that they present one of the toughest tests in the PAC-12, if our conference has any "tests".  Michelle Smith is putting them ahead of U.SC  at the moment.

C.AL is 15-5 which sounds rather mediocre, but three of those losses were very close games against ranked opponents, early in the season.  (At Rutgers by 3, vs. Texas by 1, vs. Ohio State by 2.)  The other two losses were on the road to the LA schools; UCLA was close but U.SC blew them out.  C.AL beat Virginia under its former coach Joanne Boyle on the road and has not lost since the disastrous road trip to LA in December.

This is the first year as the C.AL head coach for Lindsay Gottlieb, who had formerly been head coach of UC Santa Barbara and Associate Head Coach in Berkeley before that.  It does not seem to have been a difficult transition at all, given that she worked under Joanne Boyle and implemented the system that she just returned to.

There are two major points of interest when discussing the personality of this C.AL team.  First is rebounding.  Statistically they are 1st in the Pac 12 in rebounding offense (Stanford is 2nd), 1st in the Pac 12 in rebounding defense (Stanford is also 2nd), and 1st in the Pac 12 in rebounding margin at +16 (Stanford is again 2nd at 13.)  Nor are these numbers particularly inflated by inferior teams.  C.AL out rebounded Rutgers at Rutgers 40-36, out rebounded Virginia by a whopping 47-28

The second point of interest to me is their depth, which helps them on defense.  Ten of their players average at least 10 minutes a game and only one (Layshia Clarendon) averages more than 30.  More typical are 8 players who each average between 15 and 20 minutes a game.  Basically, C.AL rotates 10 players who, with one exception, all get just about even playing time.

What does this mean?  The LeftCoastHoops Blog has this quote from Lindsay Gottlieb. “There’s no question about it, we can go 10 deep on a regular-basis.....We can play a style that lends itself to up-tempo or aggressive play and we don’t have to worry about foul trouble or fatigue.” 

That said, Stanford also has 10 players averaging more than 10 minutes.  However, there is a difference.  Much of the time logged by Stanford's non starters comes at the end of games during blowouts, and in closer games we see Nneka and Chiney in for as many minutes as they can handle.  But C.AL makes it a deliberate strategy from the beginning of the game to the last to cycle through their ten, with almost hockey-style line changes.  And also unlike Stanford, their scoring is almost as balanced as their minutes.  All 5 of their starters average 8-11 ppg, and the five subs are not very much behind.  There is no one player a defense can particularly target.

Players to watch include Gennifer Brandon, who is averaging 11 rebounds per game and 9.8 points.  She is a 6-2 forward sophomore who is coming back after a 16 month injury rehab.  We did not see her last year.

Reshanda Gray, a 6-3 forward, could be the Pac-12 frosh of the year--so obviously we did not see her last year either.  She is averaging 5 rebounds and 11 ppg coming off the bench.  Brandon and Gray together have similar height and athleticism to the O sisters, though I doubt they will be as creative with scoring chances.  They will given Nneka and Chiney quite a fight for the rebounds.

Layshia Clarendon, a 5-9 junior guard, is the one player averaging more than 30 minutes and she leads the team with 10.9 ppg.  She and Lindsay Sherbert (off the bench) are their two three point shooters--each hits about 32% so they are shooting virtually the same as Stanford as a team. 

They hope that Brittany Boyd will be their Amber Orrange equivalent.  She is a speedy 5-9 freshman point guard.  She has 92 assists to 68 turnovers, so her assist/turnover ratio has a ways to go before she gets to Amber territory.

Finally, Talia Caldwell is their 6-3 junior center.  She is averaging around 8 points and 7 rebounds a game.  Our team is very familiar with her.

Let's get some thoughts posted here about what the game will be like.  Has anyone seen C.AL play?  Zone, man?  Are they slashers or jumpers?  Do you think Tara is going to do anything special with a whole week to prepare?

WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - 81alum - 01-25-2012

C.AL comes to play on Saturday, and the conventional wisdom is that they present one of the toughest tests in the PAC-12, if our conference has any "tests".  Michelle Smith is putting them ahead of U.SC  at the moment.

C.AL is 15-5 which sounds rather mediocre, but three of those losses were very close games against ranked opponents, early in the season.  (At Rutgers by 3, vs. Texas by 1, vs. Ohio State by 2.)  The other two losses were on the road to the LA schools; UCLA was close but U.SC blew them out.  C.AL beat Virginia under its former coach Joanne Boyle on the road and has not lost since the disastrous road trip to LA in December.

This is the first year as the C.AL head coach for Lindsay Gottlieb, who had formerly been head coach of UC Santa Barbara and Associate Head Coach in Berkeley before that.  It does not seem to have been a difficult transition at all, given that she worked under Joanne Boyle and implemented the system that she just returned to.

There are two major points of interest when discussing the personality of this C.AL team.  First is rebounding.  Statistically they are 1st in the Pac 12 in rebounding offense (Stanford is 2nd), 1st in the Pac 12 in rebounding defense (Stanford is also 2nd), and 1st in the Pac 12 in rebounding margin at +16 (Stanford is again 2nd at 13.)  Nor are these numbers particularly inflated by inferior teams.  C.AL out rebounded Rutgers at Rutgers 40-36, out rebounded Virginia by a whopping 47-28

The second point of interest to me is their depth, which helps them on defense.  Ten of their players average at least 10 minutes a game and only one (Layshia Clarendon) averages more than 30.  More typical are 8 players who each average between 15 and 20 minutes a game.  Basically, C.AL rotates 10 players who, with one exception, all get just about even playing time.

What does this mean?  The LeftCoastHoops Blog has this quote from Lindsay Gottlieb. “There’s no question about it, we can go 10 deep on a regular-basis.....We can play a style that lends itself to up-tempo or aggressive play and we don’t have to worry about foul trouble or fatigue.” 

That said, Stanford also has 10 players averaging more than 10 minutes.  However, there is a difference.  Much of the time logged by Stanford's non starters comes at the end of games during blowouts, and in closer games we see Nneka and Chiney in for as many minutes as they can handle.  But C.AL makes it a deliberate strategy from the beginning of the game to the last to cycle through their ten, with almost hockey-style line changes.  And also unlike Stanford, their scoring is almost as balanced as their minutes.  All 5 of their starters average 8-11 ppg, and the five subs are not very much behind.  There is no one player a defense can particularly target.

Players to watch include Gennifer Brandon, who is averaging 11 rebounds per game and 9.8 points.  She is a 6-2 forward sophomore who is coming back after a 16 month injury rehab.  We did not see her last year.

Reshanda Gray, a 6-3 forward, could be the Pac-12 frosh of the year--so obviously we did not see her last year either.  She is averaging 5 rebounds and 11 ppg coming off the bench.  Brandon and Gray together have similar height and athleticism to the O sisters, though I doubt they will be as creative with scoring chances.  They will given Nneka and Chiney quite a fight for the rebounds.

Layshia Clarendon, a 5-9 junior guard, is the one player averaging more than 30 minutes and she leads the team with 10.9 ppg.  She and Lindsay Sherbert (off the bench) are their two three point shooters--each hits about 32% so they are shooting virtually the same as Stanford as a team. 

They hope that Brittany Boyd will be their Amber Orrange equivalent.  She is a speedy 5-9 freshman point guard.  She has 92 assists to 68 turnovers, so her assist/turnover ratio has a ways to go before she gets to Amber territory.

Finally, Talia Caldwell is their 6-3 junior center.  She is averaging around 8 points and 7 rebounds a game.  Our team is very familiar with her.

Let's get some thoughts posted here about what the game will be like.  Has anyone seen C.AL play?  Zone, man?  Are they slashers or jumpers?  Do you think Tara is going to do anything special with a whole week to prepare?

Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - Ferris_Bueller - 01-25-2012

Great post, thanks '81alum.

> Has anyone seen C.AL play?  Zone, man? 

We most always embrace wo-man defense instead of zone.  Typical gameplan features rebounding to save the day; throw up any kind of pretzel shots by bigs inside, expecting putbacks to follow.  Except, darn, really big teams (such as yours) rebound their share too. 

If we struggle on the farm that'll follow from our lack of any reliable 3 point shooters, and mediocre at best FT stats. Um, and from Taras traditional conference dominance.

Our team's slender hopes lie with full court pressure steals.  How tightly the refs call the game could be h-u-g-e.

For any other hoops insight I'll defer to the always brilliant Viking Guy.

#GoBears!






Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - Ferris_Bueller - 01-25-2012

Great post, thanks '81alum.

> Has anyone seen C.AL play?  Zone, man? 

We most always embrace wo-man defense instead of zone.  Typical gameplan features rebounding to save the day; throw up any kind of pretzel shots by bigs inside, expecting putbacks to follow.  Except, darn, really big teams (such as yours) rebound their share too. 

If we struggle on the farm that'll follow from our lack of any reliable 3 point shooters, and mediocre at best FT stats. Um, and from Taras traditional conference dominance.

Our team's slender hopes lie with full court pressure steals.  How tightly the refs call the game could be h-u-g-e.

For any other hoops insight I'll defer to the always brilliant Viking Guy.

#GoBears!






Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - M T - 01-27-2012

Good preview, 81alum.  I haven't watched a game by that other team, so I didn't know their strengths.

I was a little suspicious of the rebounding rankings, given the shooting % differences, but it is appropriate.  Across the 9 games against common opponents (Texas + Pac-12), Stanford is rebounding 41% of the offensive chances and 70% of the defensive chances.  The other gals are rebounding 43% and 75%.  I also noticed a significant discrepancy in the number of offensive chances and defensive chances, which can be explained by the shooting percentages of the two teams.

If the game follows the stats, the opponent will outrebound Stanford (perhaps handily in total numbers, but close in %), but Stanford will (perhaps easily) win because of shooting percentages, which will be in part due to defense (or C's lack of defense).

When you look at shooting %, the team across the bay is barely ahead of their opponents.  It would seem they win because of more shots than their opponent.  Note that Stanford and they (and their opponents) have approximately the same number of shots over the Pac-12 season.

But, putting tomorrow's game aside, the rebounding for Stanford has been relatively weak (relative to the overall strength of the team).

Conf. stats: (common opponents).  Highlighted numbers seem interesting to me.  Interesting that a team with such good rebounding has been blocked so much more.

TeamFG%FGA3PT%3ptAFT%FTAORDRPFPt/gATOBlkS
S43.452326.214571.512312223610472.5133923159
S Opp33.046323.813063.31289518711552.2621201541
C38.652327.38865.816114722512166.8931152465
C Opp36.945233.612873.21277519613658.8841284154


Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - M T - 01-27-2012

Good preview, 81alum.  I haven't watched a game by that other team, so I didn't know their strengths.

I was a little suspicious of the rebounding rankings, given the shooting % differences, but it is appropriate.  Across the 9 games against common opponents (Texas + Pac-12), Stanford is rebounding 41% of the offensive chances and 70% of the defensive chances.  The other gals are rebounding 43% and 75%.  I also noticed a significant discrepancy in the number of offensive chances and defensive chances, which can be explained by the shooting percentages of the two teams.

If the game follows the stats, the opponent will outrebound Stanford (perhaps handily in total numbers, but close in %), but Stanford will (perhaps easily) win because of shooting percentages, which will be in part due to defense (or C's lack of defense).

When you look at shooting %, the team across the bay is barely ahead of their opponents.  It would seem they win because of more shots than their opponent.  Note that Stanford and they (and their opponents) have approximately the same number of shots over the Pac-12 season.

But, putting tomorrow's game aside, the rebounding for Stanford has been relatively weak (relative to the overall strength of the team).

Conf. stats: (common opponents).  Highlighted numbers seem interesting to me.  Interesting that a team with such good rebounding has been blocked so much more.

TeamFG%FGA3PT%3ptAFT%FTAORDRPFPt/gATOBlkS
S43.452326.214571.512312223610472.5133923159
S Opp33.046323.813063.31289518711552.2621201541
C38.652327.38865.816114722512166.8931152465
C Opp36.945233.612873.21277519613658.8841284154


Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - Viking_Guy - 01-27-2012

<cue Greek chorus>

Hmm, an opponent with athletic driving guards and forwards who can't shoot from outside.  I wonder what defense might work against such a team?

</Greek chorus>

VG


Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - Viking_Guy - 01-27-2012

<cue Greek chorus>

Hmm, an opponent with athletic driving guards and forwards who can't shoot from outside.  I wonder what defense might work against such a team?

</Greek chorus>

VG


Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - 81alum - 01-27-2012

Very interesting stats and analysis, MT.  I am struck that C.AL seems to be particularly poor at 3 point defense.  That is curious, especially considering that they are a (wo)man team, as Lurck describes it.

I wonder if--given our recent troubles with three point shooting-- Gottlieb might try to surprise us with a "stop Nneka" zone.  She did have a full week to install such a defense.


Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - 81alum - 01-27-2012

Very interesting stats and analysis, MT.  I am struck that C.AL seems to be particularly poor at 3 point defense.  That is curious, especially considering that they are a (wo)man team, as Lurck describes it.

I wonder if--given our recent troubles with three point shooting-- Gottlieb might try to surprise us with a "stop Nneka" zone.  She did have a full week to install such a defense.


Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - yvonne - 01-28-2012

The game is in overtime.

Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - yvonne - 01-28-2012

The game is in overtime.

Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - washingtonismoney - 01-28-2012

Stanford wins by three. I look forward to Ann Killion's column tomorrow speculating on kal's imminent seizure of the dominant position in the Pac-12.

Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - washingtonismoney - 01-28-2012

Stanford wins by three. I look forward to Ann Killion's column tomorrow speculating on kal's imminent seizure of the dominant position in the Pac-12.

Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - Leftcoast - 01-28-2012

I listened to the second half and OT on KZSU. 

An exciting game but this team will need to improve markedly if they want to play deep into March.  The rough OT period saw turnovers, silly fouls, missed front ends of one-and-one freethrows and lots of young players making pressure mistakes.  Luckily, C.al made a few more than Stanford.

I look forward to VG's breakdown once he recovers from his stress induced coma.  He may need some time.

Re: WBB: Scouting/Preview C.AL - Leftcoast - 01-28-2012

I listened to the second half and OT on KZSU. 

An exciting game but this team will need to improve markedly if they want to play deep into March.  The rough OT period saw turnovers, silly fouls, missed front ends of one-and-one freethrows and lots of young players making pressure mistakes.  Luckily, C.al made a few more than Stanford.

I look forward to VG's breakdown once he recovers from his stress induced coma.  He may need some time.