2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - Printable Version

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2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - george - 10-27-2026

What do we think, can we get Jeff Brohm fired?

Also, how much nickname mileage are we gonna get out this matchup?  Can't wait to see how folks manage that extra S.  Speaking of nicknames, DON'T FORGET TO VOTE!  (we aren't getting as much participation in the nickname voting as I'd hoped).

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - rogpodge - 10-27-2026

https://x.com/RedditCFB/status/2115133798480495038?a=RITFtKW6imM6dhoHW70&s=09

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - ADPinWDC - 10-27-2026

ENCORE at LOUV?  
Analysts are with LOUV (4-3) 95%+
https://www.espn.com/college-football/ga...louisville

ESPN SP+ has LOUV at #26 and Stanford at #110. They beat SMU.  
And bring a very potent Rush / Pass Offense. Without Matt Rose at LB, this will be tough.  
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-fbs-teams

Their strange loss @NCST was with three fumbles lost.  
Losing to OleMiss by just 3, is not a downtick. 41-38.  
And they lost to a very good WAKE team, as we found out.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - BostonCard - 10-27-2026



We are outliers, and not in a good way.

BC

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - PalmTree - 10-28-2026

(10-27-2026, 11:00 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

We are outliers, and not in a good way.

BC

And whither our ursine Bay Area brethren? Let's just say misery loves company - talk about FML......

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - Solo77 - 10-28-2026

(10-28-2026, 03:08 AM)PalmTree Wrote:  

(10-27-2026, 11:00 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

We are outliers, and not in a good way.

BC

And whither our ursine Bay Area brethren? Let's just say misery loves company - talk about FML......

Well we have played the two most dominant teams in this chart (who, combined with Georgia) separate themselves from the rest of the pack. 

That being said, cal looking like the best hope for a 5th win.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - ADPinWDC - 10-28-2026

It's a stunning graphic of Quadrants. 

How could it be adjusted for Strength of Schedule? 
[Help please]. 
Our four losses are all to ranked teams, 
including #1 MIAM and #3 NDAM, 
at the time we played them, or now.
... All four in Upper Right... and with scoring on us.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - BostonCard - 10-28-2026

Way back in the day, the late Steve Durrett used to basically adjust all the stats based on a "relative performance ratio" basically the ratio of what a team's stat's compared to what a team's opponent's normally gave up.  Stanford probably looks a bit better but not that much better here.

Note that in addition to our four losses to teams in the top right quadrant, with Miami and Notre Dame being towards the far end of the quadrant, it is worth mentioning that we have two wins against teams that don't appear (Hawaii because it is a G5 team and Elon because it is a FCS team), and our two FBS wins were against Georgia Tech, a fellow bottom left quadrant team (and one of the weaker ones) and NCState, a bottom right quadrant team that feasted on Richmond (73-0), pulling its ppd up.

BC

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - msqueri - 10-28-2026

That kind of adjustment (enemy gets a vote) is the underlying logic of my day after thoughts posts. If one is looking for a season-long metric of that kind of context, FEI is pretty good. We are #100 overall, #88 offense, #112 defense, and #69 special teams. The Dark Ages/New World Order (2021-present) medians in each of those are, respectively, #85, #79, #88, and #19. In a nutshell, we have been the worst power team in the country the last five years and are worse this year in every phase than we typically are. Not great, Bob!

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - TriangleTree - 10-28-2026

(10-28-2026, 08:28 AM)ADPinWDC Wrote:  It's a stunning graphic of Quadrants. 

How could it be adjusted for Strength of Schedule? 
[Help please]. 
Our four losses are all to ranked teams, 
including #1 MIAM and #3 NDAM, 
at the time we played them, or now.
... All four in Upper Right... and with scoring on us.

Including 3 of 4 away on Eastern time zones, which we'll be dealing with again this Saturday against another explosive offense.

To the extent past history is indicative of future success, this should be another bloodbath.

Whether we can be competitive in this game, some hope may come from the offensive line showing signs of settling and Ford looking every bit the part. If that's working to a decent extent, our QB and receivers have proven more than capable. 
Defense is clearly the biggest concern. The Nicholson and Rose casualties have been very painful, but Richard should be feeling a bit of pressure by now. Hopefully they can show that the flashes shown in the last couple of weeks were not just down to weak competition. 

Time for Pritchard and Co to show there's progress on the playing away from home front, which I'm sure they're eager to.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - rogpodge - 10-28-2026

https://x.com/statsowar/status/2115496681978667313?a=BDg0GPAdkjYhLIj2lfE&s=09

As good as the wide receivers have generally been, Davis Warren leads the nation in EPA lost to drops. Followed by Alejado, apparently. Something to clean up in the off season.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - jacket3ree - 10-28-2026

Maybe someone can mash these charts together. This is the same quadrant format with net points per drive plotted against strength of schedule to date. I have one team that sucks against a weak ass schedule and one team that sucks against a harder schedule and they played each other.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - MV72018 - 10-28-2026

(10-28-2026, 05:18 AM)Solo77 Wrote:  

(10-28-2026, 03:08 AM)PalmTree Wrote:  

(10-27-2026, 11:00 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

We are outliers, and not in a good way.

BC

And whither our ursine Bay Area brethren? Let's just say misery loves company - talk about FML......

Well we have played the two most dominant teams in this chart (who, combined with Georgia) separate themselves from the rest of the pack. 

That being said, cal looking like the best hope for a 5th win.

That graph is like a smack in the face with an open hand on a cold morning. REALLY POOR. Coupled with our QB leading the back in betrayals/drops, that shows what kind of a team SU is this year.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - SkiBum80 - 10-28-2026

If we're an outlier than that means we are special, right?
If we can bottle up some of the GaTech/NCState games Cardinal football magic and transport it to Kentucky then we could make a nice game over there.
And I think it's arguable that Louisville is underperforming their expectations. 
Only one big win, vs SMU (at home).
And they've been pampered with 5 home games and only 2 road games so far, and we will be their 6th home game (who do we have to know to get such a favorable schedule?)
However, we have yet to prove we can play on the east coast any better than an expansion team that made it's draft picks by throwing darts against the wall.
So while I'd love to predict a die-hard-fan good guys win, I'm guessing we come up a bit short.
Hope to be proven wrong.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - BostonCard - 10-28-2026

(10-28-2026, 02:37 PM)jacket3ree Wrote:  Maybe someone can mash these charts together. This is the same quadrant format with net points per drive plotted against strength of schedule to date. I have one team that sucks against a weak ass schedule and one team that sucks against a harder schedule and they played each other.

I think you meant to post the link to the tweet (Xeet).

https://x.com/4thQuarterCFB00/status/2114746281184928161?s=20

Yes, we are way in bottom of the net ppd metric, but at least it is because of the tough SOS, as opposed to Cal or (sad to say) Georgia Tech, who had the ignominy of being on the short end of a net ppd deficit, against us.



BC

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - ADPinWDC - 10-28-2026

(10-28-2026, 02:37 PM)jacket3ree Wrote:  Maybe someone can mash these charts together. This is the same quadrant format with net points per drive plotted against strength of schedule to date. I have one team that sucks against a weak ass schedule and one team that sucks against a harder schedule and they played each other.

Excellent confirmation that CAL does indeed suck. 
I had heard that... this confirms it.

AND... is that VTech way left?
Maybe TWO wins: CAL + VTech ?
That puts us at 6-6 and a bowl.
Andrew Luck beat VTech well in the Orange Bowl.
Where would we be on PPD if we had VTech schedule?

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - PVTree - 10-31-2026

Somehow, I'm unable to submit a prediction as there is no link.

My prediction, 9 hours before kickoff is:

The Ville - 42
The Farm - 14

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - george - 10-31-2026

(Yesterday, 03:13 AM)PVTree Wrote:  Somehow, I'm unable to submit a prediction as there is no link.

My prediction, 9 hours before kickoff is:

The Ville - 42
The Farm - 14

Hey PVTree, can you try again?

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - PVTree - 10-31-2026

All good now. The link appeared. It showed a link to the results of the NC State game last night.

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RE: 2026 Stanford at Louisville Predictions Thread - george - 10-31-2026

(Yesterday, 09:36 AM)PVTree Wrote:  All good now. The link appeared. It showed a link to the results of the NC State game last night.

Yeah, this is my bad.  When I import all the game times at the beginning of the season, if the game time hasn't been set yet it defaults to midnight eastern on the game day, which means the widget will shut off at 9PM Pacific.

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