Outside Topic Duke-UConn - Printable Version

Outside Topic Duke-UConn - Printable Version

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Duke-UConn - newguy - 03-29-2026

anyone catch this Elite 8 game by any chance?

RE: Duke-UConn - BostonCard - 03-29-2026

No but I did see the last play and was puzzled as to why Boozer was in such a rush to get rid of it. He’s an 80+% free throw shooter and Duke was up 2. Had he held onto the ball, he’d have been fouled with about 5 seconds to go in the game; two free throws would have made it a two possession game.

BC

RE: Duke-UConn - MV72018 - 03-29-2026

(03-29-2026, 11:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote: No but I did see the last play and was puzzled as to why Boozer was in such a rush to get rid of it. He’s an 80+% free throw shooter and Duke was up 2. Had he held onto the ball, he’d have been fouled with about 5 seconds to go in the game; two free throws would have made it a two possession game.

BC

1. he may have panicked (high pressure situation, game on the line)
2. he's a freshman, had never experienced anything like that before
3. he probably saw the two Duke players unguarded near the O basket with easy dunks if he just gets the ball to either one of them.

Q: did Scheyer tell those in the game what to do and not do when they were huddled up and about to in-bound the ball?

Duke's heavy reliance on super-talented frosh may have come back to bite it in crunch time.

RE: Duke-UConn - newguy - 03-29-2026

for the first time in several years, i watched every second of a basketball game. and i'm glad it was this one.

RE: Duke-UConn - BostonCard - 03-30-2026

(03-29-2026, 11:33 PM)MV72018 Wrote: 1. he may have panicked (high pressure situation, game on the line)
2. he's a freshman, had never experienced anything like that before
3. he probably saw the two Duke players unguarded near the O basket with easy dunks if he just gets the ball to either one of them.

Q: did Scheyer tell those in the game what to do and not do when they were huddled up and about to in-bound the ball?

Duke's heavy reliance on super-talented frosh may have come back to bite it in crunch time.

I think that is correct. I was asking to make sure I didn’t miss anything, but it does look like a freshman mistake.

BC

RE: Duke-UConn - PVTree - 03-30-2026

A very enjoyable game to watch. Dook not as hateable as when Chewy roamed the sidelines, but still a good day when they lose. I was hoping their women's team got into the FF.

RE: Duke-UConn - PalmTree - 03-30-2026

From the prior game, with dad Carlos trolling the Johnnys fans with a good bye wave at the end, to this one just 2 days later with each of the twins making critical mistakes in the waning minutes was as epic a reversal of schadenfreude as I've ever seen.

RE: Duke-UConn - Papa John - 03-30-2026

Well, it must suck to be a Duke b-ball fan right now. Both the men and women blew double-digit leads on the same day in their respective NCAA tournaments. I wonder if that's ever happened before.

RE: Duke-UConn - jacket3ree - 03-30-2026

Someone from Duke choked, either the $2 million player or the $8 million coach, or both, and I'm here for it. Can't believe they wouldn't have gone over that in huddle before inbounding. Just inbound hold the ball until something happens. Not exactly rocket science. Can't say I was upset but wow is it weird to even pull for UCONN albeit only for a few seconds. I'll be pulling for Illinois to win the whole thing, I guess, depending on how our annual trip to some bar goes.

I mean, it's not like highly paid NBA players don't make boneheaded plays too and highly paid NBA coaches aren't immune from missing basic stuff either.

RE: Duke-UConn - Treebound - 03-30-2026

Duke fans are beside themselves right now and rightfully so. What a miss from a coaching and a player perspective. NIL money spent and gone. As for next weekend - I say let's go U of A. Win one for Lute and the Pac10/12. It's been a long time since a west coast team cut down the nets. 1997 was Zona's last win, so they are deserving and due!

RE: Duke-UConn - BostonCard - 03-30-2026

And that’s the thing with NIL payments. You can’t really view them as an investment; they are an expense. So, if you are Duke, and your multiple millions didn’t even get you to the Final Four, let alone a national title, that’s just money down the drain.

BC

RE: Duke-UConn - PalmTree - 03-31-2026

(03-30-2026, 09:30 PM)BostonCard Wrote: And that’s the thing with NIL payments. You can’t really view them as an investment; they are an expense. So, if you are Duke, and your multiple millions didn’t even get you to the Final Four, let alone a national title, that’s just money down the drain.

BC

Yup -here's what Duke can do with all that NIL $ they paid out this season.....

[Image: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRJtof3kjTOLotO17zcr3y...saiZuK8g&s]

RE: Duke-UConn - cardcrimson - 03-31-2026

(03-30-2026, 04:30 PM)jacket3ree Wrote: Someone from Duke choked, either the $2 million player or the $8 million coach, or both, and I'm here for it. Can't believe they wouldn't have gone over that in huddle before inbounding. Just inbound hold the ball until something happens. Not exactly rocket science. Can't say I was upset but wow is it weird to even pull for UCONN albeit only for a few seconds. I'll be pulling for Illinois to win the whole thing, I guess, depending on how our annual trip to some bar goes.

I mean, it's not like highly paid NBA players don't make boneheaded plays too and highly paid NBA coaches aren't immune from missing basic stuff either.

I thought the same, but went back and reviewed it; there wasn't a huddle before the inbound, the inbound was directly after a made free throw, nor before any of the free throws. The Duke bench on the far side of the court, as well.

RE: Duke-UConn - jacket3ree - 03-31-2026

Thanks for catching that cardcrimson, I didn't even though I watched the end of the game while getting ready to go to the grocery store. I think UCONN missed the first of two, or they would have been within a point and a quick foul on the inbound to control the end of game. Since he missed, Duke was up two and with less then ten seconds left, they didn't need to cross half court. No real reason to call timeout to let UCONN set their defense, and I don't know if they had any left. So, assume Duke can make both free throws and there is almost no way to lose. Just get it in. I remember thinking 'what are you doing?' when Caden Boozer threw that panic pass, and laughing hard when the kid hit the logo three. You could see it coming in slow motion. The anti-Hill/Laettner play.

I suppose we forget that while getting paid millions, they are still not even a year out of high school.

RE: Duke-UConn - 82lsju - 03-31-2026

(03-31-2026, 01:35 PM)jacket3ree Wrote: Thanks for catching that cardcrimson, I didn't even though I watched the end of the game while getting ready to go to the grocery store. I think UCONN missed the first of two, or they would have been within a point and a quick foul on the inbound to control the end of game. Since he missed, Duke was up two and with less then ten seconds left, they didn't need to cross half court. No real reason to call timeout to let UCONN set their defense, and I don't know if they had any left. So, assume Duke can make both free throws and there is almost no way to lose. Just get it in. I remember thinking 'what are you doing?' when Caden Boozer threw that panic pass, and laughing hard when the kid hit the logo three. You could see it coming in slow motion. The anti-Hill/Laettner play.

I suppose we forget that while getting paid millions, they are still not even a year out of high school.

looking at the replay each team had one time out left

RE: Duke-UConn - BostonCard - 03-31-2026

(03-31-2026, 01:35 PM)jacket3ree Wrote: Thanks for catching that cardcrimson, I didn't even though I watched the end of the game while getting ready to go to the grocery store. I think UCONN missed the first of two, or they would have been within a point and a quick foul on the inbound to control the end of game. Since he missed, Duke was up two and with less then ten seconds left, they didn't need to cross half court. No real reason to call timeout to let UCONN set their defense, and I don't know if they had any left. So, assume Duke can make both free throws and there is almost no way to lose. Just get it in. I remember thinking 'what are you doing?' when Caden Boozer threw that panic pass, and laughing hard when the kid hit the logo three. You could see it coming in slow motion. The anti-Hill/Laettner play.

I suppose we forget that while getting paid millions, they are still not even a year out of high school.

Yup. With 10 seconds to go and up 3 points, Boozer fouled Demary Jr.; Demary Jr. missed the first free throw, but made the second to cut the lead to two. At that point, Duke ball handlers had one job: don’t turn it over (OK, maybe a second, which was to make your free throws if you are fouled). Cayden Boozer is an 81% free throw shooter, so if he was fouled with about 5 seconds to go, he would have had a 66% chance of making both and functionally putting the game out of reach and a 31% chance of making at least one, which would have given UConn a tough chance to tie and send the game to overtime. Even missing both only leaves UConn 5 seconds to go coast to coast to tie or win the game.

BC

RE: Duke-UConn - oldalum - 04-01-2026

(03-31-2026, 02:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Cayden Boozer is an 81% free throw shooter, so if he was fouled with about 5 seconds to go, he would have had a 66% chance of making both and functionally putting the game out of reach and a 31% chance of making at least one
BC

I've long since forgotten everything I learned in my stats class, but just winging it, it seems if he has an 81% chance of making one free throw, there would have to be a >81% chance of him making at least one of two, no?

RE: Duke-UConn - jacket3ree - 04-01-2026

Good old binomial theorem. I think BC gave you the probability of him making only one shot (31%) rather than at at least one of two.

Anyway if he's an 81% free throw shooter, the probability of missing both is 3.6%, the probability of making one and only one is 30.8% and the probability of making both is 65.6%. The probability of making at least one is 96.4%.

The binomial theorem says that Duke really blew it.

Nerd powers, activate! [wonder twins voice]

p = 0.81

q = 1 - p = 0.19

p(0) = q^2 = (0.19)^2 = 0.0361

p(1) = 2pq = (2)(0.81)(0.19) = 0.3078 (BC's 31%)

p(2) = p^2 = (0.81)^2 = .6561

p(at least one) = 1 - p(0) = 1 - 0.0361 = 0.9639

RE: Duke-UConn - oldalum - 04-01-2026

Thanks Jacket3ree for the re-education!

Taking a step back from stats class, his season-long 81% free throw shooting percentage probably overstates, at least a little, a freshman's probability of making a free throw in the final 10 seconds of a close regional final. ;)

RE: Duke-UConn - norcard10 - 04-01-2026

(04-01-2026, 01:28 PM)oldalum Wrote: Thanks Jacket3ree for the re-education!

Taking a step back from stats class, his season-long 81% free throw shooting percentage probably overstates, at least a little, a freshman's probability of making a free throw in the final 10 seconds of a close regional final. ;)

Now someone do the probability of stanford basketball being competitive in the ncaa tournament again