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Bowl Possibilities - Jamesy - 10-23-2022

Hoping to reverse jinx the woofing gods, I've resigned myself to the fact that there won't be a change at the top after this season. As such, thinking optimistically, I decided to research where would we go bowling if we hit 6-6? Most likely path to 6 wins is WSU, Cal and BYU. Keep in mind even that would require beating a WSU team that we haven't defeated since 2015. Nevertheless, we would be 3-6 in conference, which puts us as the last qualifying team in the conference. 5 teams already bowl eligible (Oregon, USC, UCLA, OSU and Washington), another (Utah) is a shoe-in. This puts us at #7 in the pecking order. There's a decent chance WSU will also get to 6 wins (if they beat 2 of Arizona/ASU/Washington, assuming losses to Utah and us), which means 8 bowl eligible teams and we would be tied at 3-6 with WSU. If 2 teams make NY6/CFP bowls, this puts us tied at #7 and I think in the LA bowl given we'd have a head to head win vs WSU. If we don't have a CFP team in the conference, everyone drops a spot and we would be in an at-large bowl, which are the Armed Forces Bowl (12/22 in Fort Worth on the TCU campus), First Responder Bowl (12/27 in Dallas on the SMU campus) or the Gasparilla Bowl (12/23 in Tampa, FL). I know the extra practices are important for player development, but can we turn down the invite...

Please let me know if I'm doing the analysis incorrectly.

RE: Bowl Possibilities - BostonCard - 10-23-2022

I really don’t think we will beat WSU, and Cal and BYU are toss-ups at best.  Most likely scenario is 4-8.  The loss to OSU really screwed up our bowl chances.

I will start considering bowl scenarios when we get to five wins and have at least one game left.

BC

RE: Bowl Possibilities - Jamesy - 10-23-2022

(10-23-2022, 10:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I really don’t think we will beat WSU, and Cal and BYU are toss-ups at best.  Most likely scenario is 4-8.  The loss to OSU really screwed up our bowl chances.

I will start considering bowl scenarios when we get to five wins and have at least one game left.

BC

I agree, I'll really start to give us a shot if we beat wsu. We just don't match up well against them, but by the Sagarin ratings, it should be a toss up.

RE: Bowl Possibilities - winflop - 10-24-2022

(10-23-2022, 10:30 PM)Jamesy Wrote:  Hoping to reverse jinx the woofing gods, I've resigned myself to the fact that there won't be a change at the top after this season. 

In the wake of a win, I'd agree with you. But if they lose the rest of their games and finish 3-9, this win will be way beyond the rearview mirror

RE: Bowl Possibilities - Row80Critic - 10-24-2022

The last two games were against teams that just weren't very good, and both of those games were essentially a coin flip.  If Washington St., Cal, and BYU are likewise coin flips, Stanford would have a 12.5% chance of winning all three.  Even if Stanford had a 75% chance of winning all three (they don't by the way), that still gives them a ~42% chance of winning all three.  So, I'd say the team needs to start (keep?) playing better, or get lucky, or both.  Beating UCLA would increase their chances in a very big way.  So, let's start with that. :)

RE: Bowl Possibilities - Mick - 10-24-2022

(10-24-2022, 08:22 AM)winflop Wrote:  
(10-23-2022, 10:30 PM)Jamesy Wrote:  Hoping to reverse jinx the woofing gods, I've resigned myself to the fact that there won't be a change at the top after this season. 

In the wake of a win, I'd agree with you. But if they lose the rest of their games and finish 3-9, this win will be way beyond the rearview mirror

Trivia question: What's the worst football season record that Stanford has had in a year in which the Stanford Cardinal defeated Notre Dame?

RE: Bowl Possibilities - Phogge - 10-24-2022

1990 Stanford over Domers.

RE: Bowl Possibilities - CowboyIndian - 10-24-2022

(10-24-2022, 11:16 AM)Mick Wrote:  Trivia question: What's the worst football season record that Stanford has had in a year in which the Stanford Cardinal defeated Notre Dame?

1963? I remember watching that one on B&W TV and Stanford wasn't very good.

RE: Bowl Possibilities - chrisk - 10-24-2022

(10-24-2022, 12:45 PM)CowboyIndian Wrote:  
(10-24-2022, 11:16 AM)Mick Wrote:  Trivia question: What's the worst football season record that Stanford has had in a year in which the Stanford Cardinal defeated Notre Dame?

1963? I remember watching that one on B&W TV and Stanford wasn't very good.

In 1963, Stanford finished 3-7, but ND was 2-7 (beating USC and UCLA).
Stanford beat SJS, ND, and Cal, losing to USC and UCLA.

The following season, ND replaced Coach Devore with Northwestern’s Ara P.

RE: Bowl Possibilities - gailtate - 10-24-2022

(10-24-2022, 12:45 PM)CowboyIndian Wrote:  
(10-24-2022, 11:16 AM)Mick Wrote:  Trivia question: What's the worst football season record that Stanford has had in a year in which the Stanford Cardinal defeated Notre Dame?

1963? I remember watching that one on B&W TV and Stanford wasn't very good.

Ralston's first year. He made a big deal about how Stanford needed to recruit in L.A., focusing on Catholic high schools. Insisted that it would pay off in the future. He was right.

RE: Bowl Possibilities - martyup - 10-24-2022

I'll start thinking about the possibility of us going to a bowl game when we manage to score a TD.  Then, when we can score more than 1 in a game.

RE: Bowl Possibilities - gailtate - 10-24-2022

(10-23-2022, 10:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I really don’t think we will beat WSU, and Cal and BYU are toss-ups at best.  Most likely scenario is 4-8.  The loss to OSU really screwed up our bowl chances.

I will start considering bowl scenarios when we get to five wins and have at least one game left.

BC

When's the last time Stanford went to bowl game having lost four, or even three, conference games before Halloween?

RE: Bowl Possibilities - SamuelMcF - 10-24-2022

(10-24-2022, 01:10 PM)gailtate Wrote:  
(10-23-2022, 10:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I really don’t think we will beat WSU, and Cal and BYU are toss-ups at best.  Most likely scenario is 4-8.  The loss to OSU really screwed up our bowl chances.

I will start considering bowl scenarios when we get to five wins and have at least one game left.

BC

When's the last time Stanford went to bowl game having lost four, or even three, conference games before Halloween?

2016-17. 3 Pac-12 losses before Halloween.

9/30: 44-6 @ UW.
10/8: 42-16 Wazzu.
10/22: 10-5 Colorado.

9-3 Stanford wins the Sun Bowl against North Carolina.


But you knew that, of course.