Wait 'til this winter - Printable Version

Wait 'til this winter - Printable Version

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Wait 'til this winter - Hulk01 - 04-05-2021

Here is my look at how my favorite team ever—overtaking the ’71-’72, Rose Bowl-winning Thunderchickens football team—shapes up for this coming season.

The number in parenthesis is the player’s ESPN Hoop Gurlz overall recruit ranking.

Point guards
Jana Van Gytenbeek (39)
Jenna Brown (18)
      The team’s possible Achilles heel. JVG must develop to have a chance of becoming a quality D1 point guard.
Brown, an elite recruit, is coming off a long injury rehab and played only 452 minutes in her first two seasons. She’s a career 39-111/4-23/22-42, suggesting that if she cannot run an offense (and she’s a career 3-plus assists, 3-plus turnovers per 30 minutes) she won’t play.

Guards
Anna Wilson (42), 2021 Pac 12 Defensive POY
Hannah Jump (50)
Agnes Emma-Nnopu
Jzaniya Harriel, 78th ranked incoming recruit
      A terrific defender, a lethal three-point shooter, and an excellent defender with a knack for offensive rebounds. But this still suggests a Stanford team without an outstanding offensive guard.

Wings
Haley Jones, Finals Most Outstanding Player; All Pac 12
Lexie Hull (14), Finals All Tournament Team; 2x All Pac 12
Lacie Hull, ’20-’21 Pac 12 Sixth POY
Brooke Demetre (6-3), 11th ranked entering recruit
Elena Bosgana (6-2)
      Experienced and talented; could go four deep; 6-3 and long, Demetre has a high release that appears unblockable. And like our other three incoming recruits, she moves very well for her size, or even for someone three inches shorter.

Posts/Bigs
Cameron Brink, 6-4 (3), First Team All Pac 12 Freshman team, HM All Pac 12
Ashten Prechtel, 6-5 (15) ’19-’20 Pac 12 Sixth POY
Fran Belibi, 6-1 (19)
Kiki Iriafen, 6-3, 19th ranked entering recruit
     The best two deep in college basketball and an absurd three deep. Iriafen is big and broad and moves very well. Expect more Two Bigs lineups.

Thoughts:
This will be an outstanding defensive and rebounding team that could be outstanding offensively if—an all-uppercase IF—Tara can find a good point guard.

The Ducks look like the biggest threat in the Pac-12, particularly if they continue their relentless invasion of the transfer protocol. They lose only Erin Boley and get back, from injury, their excellent freshman point guard, Te-Hina Paopao.

Arizona presumably loses Aari McDonald to the draft; no word on seniors Sam Thomas (HM all-conference), and Baptiste (HM all-conference). UCLA loses Michaela Onyenwere and perhaps Natalie Chou (HM all-conference), and Oregon State loses Aleah Goodman to graduation (she has declared for the draft) and freshman Sasha Goforth (HM all-defensive team and first-team all freshman) to the transfer protocol.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - DaBears17 - 04-05-2021

Sam Thomas announced today she is coming back for another year:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/i/status/1379151900667310083[/tweet]

RE: Wait 'til this winter - Lorcan - 04-05-2021

As far as I can tell, Erin Boley at Oregon never declared for the draft. You might expect her back next year for a dangerous Oregon squad.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - Goose - 04-05-2021

(04-05-2021, 01:50 PM)Hulk01 Wrote: Here is my look at how my favorite team ever—overtaking the ’71-’72, Rose Bowl-winning Thunderchickens football team—shapes up for this coming season.

Say it isn't so!

RE: Wait 'til this winter - Hulk01 - 04-05-2021

(04-05-2021, 02:09 PM)Lorcan Wrote: As far as I can tell, Erin Boley at Oregon never declared for the draft. You might expect her back next year for a dangerous Oregon squad.

I saw an article that projected her going the third round.
Nothing definitive in that, of course,
but if she feels confident of being drafted this year,
is she more apt to declare than stay another year?
And how appealing is that environment right now? It doesn't look healthy to me.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - BobK - 04-05-2021

Oregon state just lost Samuel

Great post Hulk lots to think about. Love for Wilson to return. Love for Williams to go in the first round

triangle2 - triangle2 - 04-05-2021

(04-05-2021, 03:36 PM)Hulk01 Wrote:
(04-05-2021, 02:09 PM)Lorcan Wrote: As far as I can tell, Erin Boley at Oregon never declared for the draft. You might expect her back next year for a dangerous Oregon squad.

I saw an article that projected her going the third round.
Nothing definitive in that, of course,
but if she feels confident of being drafted this year,
is she more apt to declare than stay another year?
And how appealing is that environment right now? It doesn't look healthy to me.

From what I’m reading, Boley is done with basketball.

https://sports.yahoo.com/oregon-ducks-erin-boley-forgoes-001926101.html

RE: Wait 'til this winter - Phogge - 04-05-2021

As for point guard you can't have a ten second violation and the team can't have shot clock problems. Almost cost everything.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - 81alum - 04-05-2021

Great thread. I am hoping for Wilson to return. If she does, and starts, and develops offensively, then her draft stock skyrockets. She is my point guard for next year.

JVG looks good in many ways, but can she keep from turning the ball over when guarded by small, quick, elite guards? I don't think we have seen enough of her to answer that yet. Given that McDonald is graduating that is one less elite guard in the Pac 12 who could probably discombobulate her ball handling, but there will be others, and all the elite teams we are apt to meet outside of the conference have players like Anna Wilson who can make a point guard miserable. Arizona forced us into a couple of dozen turnovers even with Williams and Wilson on the floor. Without them, it would have been a complete meltdown. Can JVG defeat that kind of pressure? (I'm trying hard not to remember our championship loss to Tennesee in which we had 25 turnovers. Yesterday's game threatened to become a repeat with 21 of them.)

Perhaps JVG is the next Jeanette Pohlen--that would be the ideal--but even Jeanette had some issues with ball handling against certain players.

I really hope that Jenna Brown comes back much improved and ready to play. I feel so badly for her that she was out the whole year we won a national championship. I'd like to see us get a second one that she can help to earn! I think her ball handling was good, she had good moves to the rim, but she lacked the jump shot that JVG clearly does have.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - VB Card - 04-05-2021

I'm a big fan of having Haley Jones be the PG next season. Opens up the lineup for more possibilities rather than forcing Jana or someone else into too big a role too early.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - 81alum - 04-05-2021

(04-05-2021, 06:00 PM)VB Card Wrote: I'm a big fan of having Haley Jones be the PG next season. Opens up the lineup for more possibilities rather than forcing Jana or someone else into too big a role too early.

It would allow other terrific players to get on the court more.

But Haley led our team in turnovers this year--by a big margin--with 78 with the next closest being Lexie with 52 . Some games she was throwing the ball over over the gym, as Tara put it. She makes spectacular passes and then dribbles the ball off her foot on the next possession. She will have to exhibit much better ball handling to convince me. But it might allow us to put our strongest five on the floor.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - Hulk01 - 04-05-2021

Jana VG on a per-30 minute basis:

.509 effective fg percentage
Four assists, 1.75 turnovers, one steal, one rebound, 7.25 points.

Pretty good, actually, and she often was facing a starter for the opposing team.

The coaches certainly have been grooming her for the starting PG position.

I like what I've saw of Harriel but defer at least somewhat to recruiting rankings;
not sure what led the rankers to leave her out of the top 50.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - BosCard - 04-05-2021

Jenna Brown has good size and strength at the PG position. She can drive and finish with contact. If she is able to finish consistently and develops a stop and pop jumper then I could see her at the PG position even if she doesn't have consistent 3-point range.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - magnus - 04-05-2021

Tara definitely has confidence in JVG...as she was put in a critical situation in the Finals.

I agree that JVG seems to have issues with quicker/faster defenders. I wonder who she was going up against in practice. Would think that a year's worth of scrimmaging against Wilson would speed up her development.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - chimera - 04-05-2021

The incoming class has great credentials, all four of them. There is no way to know who will adjust well early to college ball, and we also don't know if COVID issues will again prevent summer practice on campus. That said, it is very possible one or more of them will be good enough to demand game playing time. If Demetre, for instance, looks like a star (or any of the others) everything shifts to make room. So to me it is too soon to think hard on who plays where. So many possibilities.

As far as who is the point guard, as good as Jones is, I think it is better for her and for the team if she doesn't play pg. She can't really guard the little sneaky guards anyway, not as well as we need, so her at the point might create defensive issues. She should have a roll advancing the ball and creating through her passing, but I think from another position, as she did this year. Jana hasn't really had a chance to develop. She has looked very good at times, and perhaps with a year under her belt and some good summer practicing, she will be ready. Jenna was improving when she got hurt, and I don't think we really know what she can do when fully healthy and getting decent minutes. If neither of the J's is ready, we may have problems early, assuming Wilson, who could play point, doesn't come back. I hope she does but who knows??? It may be the guards, whoever they are, need time and things will work out fine if we have a little patience.

I am excited for next year. I have no idea how the coaches will fit in all the talent available at the 3, 4 and 5 spots, or how they will work in the rookies. It should be interesting.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - BostonCard - 04-05-2021

The player with primary ball handling duty doesn’t have to be the same person guarding the opponent’s point guard. When Nicole Powell played point forward for us, we still had guards playing defense on the opponent’s point guard.

You could imagine a situation where Jones brings the ball up, but a smaller guard defends the opponent’s point guard.

BC

RE: Wait 'til this winter - chimera - 04-05-2021

But who specifically would be in the game to guard the other team's smalls in that scenario? If Jones would be essentially the pg on offense but we still need a smaller guard in the game for defense that negates one big advantage of having her play there - the ability to play more of our bigger line-up options and avoid playing unproven smaller guards. If we need a smaller guard in the game or two of them for defense (because many teams have two quick guards and some teams play three guards) what have we gained with Jones at pg?

I don't see Jones' ball handling skills as ideal for fighting smaller quicker guards to bring the ball up under pressure, nor do I think that is the best use of her energy. We will need her to score, to rebound, etc. Someone else needs to run the offense at least some of the time so she can play off the ball. At any rate, too many factors now to even try to sort this stuff out. We just don't know how capable our young guards will be once they get the chance. If we are playing Jones as our primary point guard that would say to me the other options were not up to the task, not a good thing. What is ideal? That Jana or Jenna or both of them turn out to be just fine as point guards. They don't have to be perfect. They don't need to score a ton, just be good facilitators, avoid turnovers, and be able to hit enough outside shots that the other team needs to guard them. We should have plenty of fire power from other positions.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - qwerty49 - 04-05-2021

(04-05-2021, 07:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The player with primary ball handling duty doesn’t have to be the same person guarding the opponent’s point guard. When Nicole Powell played point forward for us, we still had guards playing defense on the opponent’s point guard.

You could imagine a situation where Jones brings the ball up, but a smaller guard defends the opponent’s point guard.

BC

Great point about Nicole, but IIRC in the SoCarolina game Haley brought the ball up on our very first possession and nearly lost it. I do kind of hold my breath when she puts the ball on the floor at this point. Hopefully that will change.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - Farm93 - 04-05-2021

(04-05-2021, 07:16 PM)chimera Wrote: The incoming class has great credentials, all four of them. There is no way to know who will adjust well early to college ball, and we also don't know if COVID issues will again prevent summer practice on campus.

By late April all of the Stanford student athletes in CA should be eligible for COVID-19 vaccines. By July COVID-19 should not be a major problem for this or any other Stanford team.

Based on the rather large number of anti-vaxxers in the USA fans may or may not be allowed to pack the stands, but I would think any team with 100% of its roster vaccinated should be in good shape.

RE: Wait 'til this winter - BostonCard - 04-05-2021

Yes, that is a bigger reason for her not to be the primary ball handler. She would be fine under routine situations and as a change of pace to spell whoever does wind up being our primary ball handler, but against a strong defensive team, and, especially against one that would try to trap, I think she'd be a vulnerability.

I will be very interested to see the rotation next year. You figure Lexie Hull, Haley Jones, and Cameron Brink will have three positions locked down. If Anna Wilson comes back for a sixth year, then she would have a fourth. And then it's a choice between a pure point (Jenna Brown coming back from injury or Jana Van Guitenberg), another wing (presumably Lacie Hull, though possibly Brooke Demetre) or going big with Ashton Prechtel. While we don't have any clear players to take the mantle from Williams (and Wilson, if she doesn't come back), we have a lot of options.

BC