WBB FINAL FOUR: STAN 66 SC 65 - Printable Version
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WBB FINAL FOUR: STAN 66 SC 65 - 81alum - 03-30-2021
Preview:
South Carolina comes off an absolutely dominant victory over Texas to face us, after our dramatic come-from-behind win over Louisville.
South Carolina has had the same 5 starters the whole season, with 2 players off the bench getting 18 mpg. So the rotation is usually 7 deep and occasionally 8.
While Carolina's very big big Aliyah Boston gets a lot of attention, their 5'9" sophomore shooting guard Zia Cook leads their scoring at 16 ppg. She has 43 treys on 39% shooting, but is a particularly quick slasher.
6'5" sophomore forward Boston is the anchor to their offense. She is large and cannot be kept out of the paint. She shoots as well as Osahor did, but is more skilled around the basket. She shoots 49% and has a boatload of blocks. She is their second leading scorer at 14 ppg, and has a whopping 120 offensive rebounds on the year.
Their 5'7" junior point guard is Destanni Henderson, who is their best three point shooter at 41% and a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. She is their third leading scorer at 12 ppg.
Victaria Saxton is their fourth leading scorer at 9 ppg, and shoots 58%, almost all from inside.
Their final starter is 6'2" junior forward Brea Bell, who is a 30% three point shooter at 7 ppg.
Probably their best known bench player is 6'4" forward Latecia Amihere out of Canada and once the #1 recruit before injury, who we once dreamed of getting, who reminds me of a young Chiney. She came off the bench to good effect for them today.
South Carolina plays through the post. They want Boston to get a touch every possession. Boston is skilled inside but also hits mid range and even three point jumpers, and she passes out to perimeter shooters like Henderson and Cook and gets lots of assists. So it is a tough team to guard with the inside/out game.
South Carolina is 3rd in rebounding margin (we are 13th.) They have more blocked shots per game than we do (roughly 7 vs 6.) We give up a lower FG% than they do (we are 1st, they are 32nd.)
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - BostonCard - 03-30-2021
Brink will have her hands full, and we will likely need the full contingent of posts (Brink, Prechtel, Belibi) to contain Boston. How do you defend? Help defense with Jones or Hull every time Boston touches the ball and Williams and Wilson on Cook and Henderson?
BC
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - Spiny_Norman - 03-30-2021
Game time is set - 3 pm pacific on Friday. UConn and Arizona play at 6:30.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - BostonCard - 03-30-2021
We kick off as a three point favorite. This round, UConn has the distinction of being the biggest favorite.
BC
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - Maple Leaf - 03-30-2021
The best way to defend Boston will be to tie her shoe laces together for starters.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - Baez87 - 03-30-2021
We are taking our 2010 San Antonio Final Four t-shirts with us to San Antonio this week to exorcize them. Hope to see our fellow Cardboarders at the games! So happy for our players, coaches, and support personnel! Go Cardinal!
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - BillBradley - 03-30-2021
I would make Boston score against Brink, without doubling to start. No one this season has been able to score on Cam. Boston's a skilled passer so doubling could backfire. The refs don't seem to be calling much late in the tourney, so Cam can be aggressive. If she is able to score or Cam is in foul trouble, then we'll probably need to double.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - PVTree - 03-30-2021
Make Boston run up and down the court so she is winded. She doesn't appear to be in the greatest of shape and spends minutes on the bench resting.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - Spiny_Norman - 03-30-2021
(03-30-2021, 10:34 PM)BillBradley Wrote: I would make Boston score against Brink, without doubling to start. No one this season has been able to score on Cam. Boston's a skilled passer so doubling could backfire. The refs don't seem to be calling much late in the tourney, so Cam can be aggressive. If she is able to score or Cam is in foul trouble, then we'll probably need to double.
I thought there was a key moment in the first minute of tonight's game when Louisville fed the post, the player turned to shoot and was blocked by Brink. Louisville's center did not challenge Brink again for 4 minutes. Brink blocked that shot too. She played all 21 minutes tonight without a single foul. Against Oklahoma State, Brink lasted until mid 2nd quarter before picking up her first foul. Contrast that with the Missouri State game when Brink got an early block, but then picked up a foul on Missouri State's next possession. 2:30 into the game, she was subbed out.
How long can Brink last on Friday (assuming she is good to go)? Watch how the officials call the game early in the 1st quarter.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - M T - 03-31-2021
Just to make it fair, the NCAA (or is it E$PN) have scheduled the overall #1 seed's match to be the earlier semifinal game, on a workday, during working hours for their home fans. The Friday 3PM PDT game should be over before 5PM PDT.
For some reason, the first semifinal game has been moved an hour earlier than in the previous two years. The second semifinal game is at the approximate same time as in the previous years.
Stanford gets something like 67 hours from the end of the Elite Eight to the semifinals; UConn gets an extra 26 hours.
The winner of the Stanford-So. Carolina game will get about 46 hours to the championship game
while the winner of the UConn-Az game will get about 42.5 hours.
(In 2019, the WBB Final Four had a similar schedule BUT an hour later for the first semifinal game. Overall #1 Baylor had the earlier game on Friday (4PM PDT) and the fans of their opponent Oregon had to leave work early to see the game. In 2018, the overall #1 got the later semifinal game. In 2018-2021, UConn got the later game.)
Note that the first semifinal game starts at 3PM PDT for Stanford, or would start at 3PM MST for Arizona, one of the two was going to have this problem.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - M T - 03-31-2021
Results for South Carolina and Stanford by scoring.
40-49: 0-1 0-0
50-59: 1-2 0-0
60-69: 7-1 5-1
70-79: 10-0 9-1
80-89: 3-0 11-0
90-99: 0-0 0-0
100-110: 3-0 3-0
They've lost 4: NC State, UConn (OT), Tenn, Tx A&M
For those 4 losses, they had their usual starters, playing typical number of minutes, so one can't blame them on injuries or illness.
None of the starters fouled out. At most, four 3PT shots were made by the opponent.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - 81alum - 03-31-2021
(03-31-2021, 02:18 AM)M T Wrote: Just to make it fair, the NCAA (or is it E$PN) have scheduled the overall #1 seed's match to be the earlier semifinal game, on a workday, during working hours for their home fans. The Friday 3PM PDT game should be over before 5PM PDT.I am mightily irritated by this. I will be in the middle of a routine medical procedure, sedated, during the game. It never occurred to me that a final four game would be played during the regular 40 hour work week. I'm not even sure if I knew or thought there would be a final four when I made this appointment. At least my stress levels will be low.
For some reason, the first semifinal game has been moved an hour earlier than in the previous two years. The second semifinal game is at the approximate same time as in the previous years.
Stanford gets something like 67 hours from the end of the Elite Eight to the semifinals; UConn gets an extra 26 hours.
The winner of the Stanford-So. Carolina game will get about 46 hours to the championship game
while the winner of the UConn-Az game will get about 42.5 hours.
(In 2019, the WBB Final Four had a similar schedule BUT an hour later for the first semifinal game. Overall #1 Baylor had the earlier game on Friday (4PM PDT) and the fans of their opponent Oregon had to leave work early to see the game. In 2018, the overall #1 got the later semifinal game. In 2018-2021, UConn got the later game.)
Note that the first semifinal game starts at 3PM PDT for Stanford, or would start at 3PM MST for Arizona, one of the two was going to have this problem.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - Blue Hawk (Mizzou) Card - 03-31-2021
As posted elsewhere, I am a brobdingnagian Tara fan. It has been painful to see her get to the Final Four so often, with no title in almost two decades.
It just seems like she never quite has enough to get back to the title. When she had superstars, she did not have enough supporting players. Now that she has a whole cast of good players, the only thing she is missing is a superstar. Don't get me wrong: We have a lot of really good players. But we don't have a Nneka, Chiney, Candice, Nicole level player right now. When we did, we didn't have the supporting cast that we do now. [I don't have as much time to follow this as I used to have, but if you rank every team's players in order from their best down, I have to believe that Stanford's fifth to tenth best players are better than anyone else's this year. We are so deep, as last night proved, when the tenth player on that list was the key to victory. How many teams can ride the back of someone who did not play (or, perhaps, barely played) in the first half? What a great night for her!!!]
But do we have enough, now that we are facing teams with true superstars? Time will tell.
One thing that does feel different this year: In recent Final Fours, I have thought "we might win this, but we can't win it just by playing our A game, because the other teams' A games are better than ours, so we need help from them." This year, while it is hard to feel confident after yesterday's first half, which we will not recover from if it repeats itself, my feeling is "our A game is competitive with the other team's A games." That doesn't mean we will beat South Carolina, for example. But if we play like we can play, we have a chance to beat them, even if they play like they can play.
As a Stanford women's basketball fan, I have accumulated enough PTSD over the years to not be optimistic about the Final Four. There is no need to alert the woofing gods, because I am by no means predicting victory, even on Friday. South Carolina is a very good team that matches up well with Stanford. There is no reason to be anything but nervous.
But we have a shot. A better shot, in my opinion, than we have had in a while.
Geez, it would be good to see Tara win one. Doesn't karma owe her that, after all she has done for the women's game? Think of how she has built western women's basketball from an afterthought to having two teams in the Final Four. [Obviously, she has not done it alone. But she has gone out of her way to help other western teams, even doing little things like agreeing to play WSU twice at their place when she easily could have avoided that.]
Geez, it would be good to see our women win this year, after the crazy year they have had. They really do feel like a TEAM.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - Hulk01 - 03-31-2021
Shooting
'The Cocks have only two bona fide three-point shooters: Destanni Henderson (41.3 percent) and Zia Cooke (37.7). Stanford has Jump (43.7), Kiana (38.2), Anna (43.2), and Lacie (40.0), along with, arguably, Prechtel ( 34.3) and Brink (42.0).
Offensive rebounding/second-chance points
The Cocks aren’t a very effective shooting team (47.4 effective field goal percentage, to Stanford’ w 53.5) but grab over 41 percent of their misses and, like Stanford, convert almost 60 percent of their shots at the rim. The Cardinal needs to limit SC’s second chances.
Turnovers
Surprisingly for a top-five team, South Carolina turns the ball over as often as its opponents—one in five possessions. Stanford, by another contrast, has been a net plus 3.8 on turnovers this season.
Depth
South Carolina plays seven women; Stanford plays nine.
Record vs. Top 25 teams
South Carolina: 7-4, net +4.4 point margin of victory
Stanford: 8-1, net +13.3
Vs.Top Ten teams:
South Carolina: 0-2, net -6 points
Stanford 5-1, net +6.7
Thoughts
With Tara perhaps more willing to go with two bigs (Brink and/or Prechetel and/or Belibi) on the court, South Carolina isn’t likely to outr3bound Stanford, given the added presence of Haley Jones. That would pressure the Gamecock to outshoot Stanford—a not likely event.
Stanford is the better team. If they play their game, it's on to the championshp game
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - qwerty49 - 03-31-2021
(03-31-2021, 02:18 AM)M T Wrote: Note that the first semifinal game starts at 3PM PDT for Stanford, or would start at 3PM MST for Arizona, one of the two was going to have this problem.
It’s not about the stick but the carrot. Even though they are playing in San Antonio, ESPN still wants to showcase their home team in prime time. Some things never change.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - petersalas - 03-31-2021
First hope your procedure goes well and hope you recover nicely and come out to some excellent news of the game... the tournament schedule was changed a few years ago and moved the final four to Friday instead of Sunday’s.. the championship game is now being held on Sunday’s.. I particularly didn’t care much for that change, but this year I just requested all tournament game times off and cancelled as Stanford’s game schedule became more clear... I’ll be home cheering extra on your behalf!
M
(03-31-2021, 05:14 AM)81alum Wrote:(03-31-2021, 02:18 AM)M T Wrote: Just to make it fair, the NCAA (or is it E$PN) have scheduled the overall #1 seed's match to be the earlier semifinal game, on a workday, during working hours for their home fans. The Friday 3PM PDT game should be over before 5PM PDT.I am mightily irritated by this. I will be in the middle of a routine medical procedure, sedated, during the game. It never occurred to me that a final four game would be played during the regular 40 hour work week. I'm not even sure if I knew or thought there would be a final four when I made this appointment. At least my stress levels will be low.
For some reason, the first semifinal game has been moved an hour earlier than in the previous two years. The second semifinal game is at the approximate same time as in the previous years.
Stanford gets something like 67 hours from the end of the Elite Eight to the semifinals; UConn gets an extra 26 hours.
The winner of the Stanford-So. Carolina game will get about 46 hours to the championship game
while the winner of the UConn-Az game will get about 42.5 hours.
(In 2019, the WBB Final Four had a similar schedule BUT an hour later for the first semifinal game. Overall #1 Baylor had the earlier game on Friday (4PM PDT) and the fans of their opponent Oregon had to leave work early to see the game. In 2018, the overall #1 got the later semifinal game. In 2018-2021, UConn got the later game.)
Note that the first semifinal game starts at 3PM PDT for Stanford, or would start at 3PM MST for Arizona, one of the two was going to have this problem.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - BobK - 03-31-2021
Best to you 81.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - BosCard - 03-31-2021
(03-31-2021, 08:39 AM)Hulk01 Wrote: Shooting
'The Cocks have only two bona fide three-point shooters: Destanni Henderson (41.3 percent) and Zia Cooke (37.7). Stanford has Jump (43.7), Kiana (38.2), Anna (43.2), and Lacie (40.0), along with, arguably, Prechtel ( 34.3) and Brink (42.0).
Offensive rebounding/second-chance points
The Cocks aren’t a very effective shooting team (47.4 effective field goal percentage, to Stanford’ w 53.5) but grab over 41 percent of their misses and, like Stanford, convert almost 60 percent of their shots at the rim. The Cardinal needs to limit SC’s second chances.
Turnovers
Surprisingly for a top-five team, South Carolina turns the ball over as often as its opponents—one in five possessions. Stanford, by another contrast, has been a net plus 3.8 on turnovers this season.
Depth
South Carolina plays seven women; Stanford plays nine.
Record vs. Top 25 teams
South Carolina: 7-4, net +4.4 point margin of victory
Stanford: 8-1, net +13.3
Vs.Top Ten teams:
South Carolina: 0-2, net -6 points
Stanford 5-1, net +6.7
Thoughts
With Tara perhaps more willing to go with two bigs (Brink and/or Prechetel and/or Belibi) on the court, South Carolina isn’t likely to outr3bound Stanford, given the added presence of Haley Jones. That would pressure the Gamecock to outshoot Stanford—a not likely event.
Stanford is the better team. If they play their game, it's on to the championshp game
Great analysis. I think to combat South Carolina's rebounding prowess we will see more of Jones at the three with Brink and Prechtel or Belibi and Prechtel at the two forward spots. This only works on offense because Prechtel can hover at the three point line and draw her defender out allowing Belibi/Brink and Jones room to operate in the paint or to drive.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - Farm93 - 03-31-2021
The earlier teams get really important advantages.
1) They know when they will start, so they can do maintain their normal pregame warm-up process. The second game teams always have to arrive on time and then often need to alter their pregame routine if the first game is running long or goes into OT.
2) The first game winning team coaching staff gets to scout the next game. And the losing team doesn't need to worry about scouting at all. The second game teams need to allocate some staff to the first game while simultaneously managing the pregame routine for the team.
Those are rather important advantages for the team, and at the end of the day I want the team to win this thing. So I am happy to see them get every possible advantage, and actually I am thrilled that they were not given the normal West Coast team burden of playing in the latest possible time slot.
I do suspect that UofA will not be able to keep it close so quite likely the first game will be more entertaining for the casual basketball fan. I hope UofA keeps it close or wins, but I just don't think UofA matches up well to UConn.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs South Carolina FF Friday - Goose - 03-31-2021
(03-31-2021, 10:56 AM)Farm93 Wrote: I hope UofA keeps it close or wins, but I just don't think UofA matches up well to UConn.Unfortunately true. Arizona, at least on paper, doesn't have the horses. They are a one woman show so even if McDonald cancels out Bueckers, the Arizona "other four" just don't match up. However, we can hope UConn has read their own press clippings and don't show up. If that happens, Arizona has a chance.