Thanksgiving - Printable Version
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Thanksgiving - BostonCard - 12-24-2020
Contrary to predictions, it doesn't look like Thanksgiving led to a large surge of cases. The rate of growth of new cases (second derivative) was starting to slow down heading into Thanksgiving, and although there were some distortions in the data due to fewer people getting diagnosed during Thanksgiving week end, it doesn't look like that trend was reversed. The second derivative continued to be negative, and new cases seem to have peaked about a week ago. Even if things start to get worse again, I think it would be hard to ascribe future increases to Thanksgiving.
![[Image: 24-the-morning-graf-articleLarge-v2.png]](https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/4Y4dMYKiW86UniURxtwTLNMBnXHvhxjCsnIPySAU7aqk8EgjQ4dftlppMXwrWZrUmMHvXwVPzQjUIpNnEycN-CT5HHEBHtnRrpmnuccbOBYEMoeD9spUfx83vS_qFecnHVebDr1UaPsQxLF8GgJnDWvvzgaCSE67P0beofOCsTfho7LD=s0-d-e1-ft#https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/12/24/multimedia/24-the-morning-graf/24-the-morning-graf-articleLarge-v2.png)
Goes to show that this pandemic is capricious, and continues to defy expectations.
BC
RE: Thanksgiving - dabigv13 - 12-24-2020
Might apply to the rest of the US, but clearly in Southern California at least, the steepest rise has been after Thanksgiving.
Why here and not elsewhere, I can't explain easily.
RE: Thanksgiving - BostonCard - 12-24-2020
That's the magic of exponential growth. Cases increase slowly and then all of a sudden. This estimate of Rt (to be fair, encompassing all of California, but mostly driven by LA) suggests that the peak in growth actually happened a week before Thanksgiving:
https://rt.live/us/CA
We've been growing since then (Rt > 1) but transmission doesn't seem to have been enhanced by Thanksgiving.
BC
RE: Thanksgiving - chrisk - 12-24-2020
In some parts of the country, there has been a modest decline. There are almost as many people traveling at Christmas as at Thanksgiving. Will there be another upturn in the next 2-3 weeks after Christmas?
In Europe, where Thanksgiving is not celebrated, there are a variety of patterns and possible reasons. The key difference is the countries have taken stronger actions than the US.
RE: Thanksgiving - magnus - 12-24-2020
TSA reported that yesterday was the highest amount of people going through airport checkpoints since the pandemic started (2nd highest was Sunday after Thanksgiving). Nearly 1.2M. Unfortunately, we've been right around 1M for the last 5 days.
On the other hand, we were in the 900ks for each October weekend, so is it that much more? (I guess instead of 2 days a week, it's now 6 or 7 days of the week)
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
RE: Thanksgiving - M T - 12-24-2020
(12-24-2020, 04:59 PM)BostonCard Wrote: That's the magic of exponential growth. Cases increase slowly and then all of a sudden. This estimate of Rt (to be fair, encompassing all of California, but mostly driven by LA) suggests that the peak in growth actually happened a week before Thanksgiving:
https://rt.live/us/CA
We've been growing since then (Rt > 1) but transmission doesn't seem to have been enhanced by Thanksgiving.
BC
Don't you just love data that has 3 significant digits that is 30% off of another just-as-reputable site?
https://rt.live/us/CA California Dec. 22 1.07
https://ca-covid-r.info/ California Dec. 24 1.37
What makes one right and not the other?
RE: Thanksgiving - dabigv13 - 12-24-2020
I am very skeptical of the accuracy of those R(t) tracking sites. An interesting heuristic but don't think any of them are really validated in a rigorous way.