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Case numbers - M T - 12-22-2020

I should look to see what is happening throughout the state, but I thought I'd note that SCC has had two days in a row where the new cases were less than the week before.   Not much, but some.   That's 5 days out of the last 10.    Maybe we're just at the peak of this wave.

I hope it drops quickly so there will be room at the inn ICU for those that need it.
(SCC (11%) and Bay Area (13.7%) is better off than San Joaquin Valley (0%) & So Cal. (0%))

It seems it has taken longer than expected for the restrictions to take effect.  Almost like the restrictions weren't enough & it took more time for behaviors to slowly change.  (C'mon now, how many of you went Christmas shopping?)

RE: Case numbers - Snorlax94 - 12-22-2020

The number of people hospitalized in SCC has stabilized over the last 3 days.
https://data.ca.gov/dataset/covid-19-hospital-data/resource/42d33765-20fd-44b8-a978-b083b7542225?filters=county%3ASanta+Clara

Part of it could be doctors raising the bar for who gets hospitalized, or patients avoiding hospitals based on news of filling icus.

Part of it could be some effect of the shelter in place 2 and a half weeks ago.

Based on my observations, my guess is that the latest SIP has helped a good amount. That last weekend before it kicked in, traffic was bad and parking lots were packed with shoppers. Lately, the streets have been pretty empty.

I haven’t been inside a shop or restaurant (more than 3 minutes to pay or pickup) since November. Curbside pickup is great!

I suspect though that many people will not isolate for Christmas and New Years and the hospitals cannot handle another 3x surge. So, regardless of how much some people warn and yell and demand responsible behavior, I think we are doomed in January.

RE: Case numbers - Farm93 - 12-22-2020

This week is really key.    Last minute shopping and family events could take us from this plateau to new record levels in 3-4 weeks.  It would be great to imagine we are on the way down the post-thanksgiving case rate, but we shall see how it goes.

RE: Case numbers - M T - 12-27-2020

For SCC, the total number of cases announced on Dec. 21-27 was 90 more than the total number announced in the 7 days previous to that.  It seems like SCC has plateaued  (what an ugly spelling that is!), at least for the moment.

ICU beds are still in the dire situation: 0% in SoCal & San Joaquin Valley.  11% in SCC & the Bay Area. 18% in Sacramento area.   For SCC, it appears the number of non-COVID ICU beds is down and COVID ICU beds have only had a smallish rise in the last few days.


In all the talk about the apparent uptick from Thanksgiving, I didn't hear anybody suggest it was Christmas shopping that was pushing it higher.  Since talking about reducing commercial enterprises is near blasphemy in the US, I'm not surprised.  For all those cases of "So and so had dinner with their relatives," how many did you see "And they didn't do any Christmas shopping in person"?   I don't recall any.  Did the CDC put out any advice to shop only online?  (SCC did, as I recall)

I'm more worried about the Christmas shopping aspect for the days leading up to Christmas.   That exposes you to far more people but much less time and often more distance.  It isn't clear to me which is riskier.  Higher risk of exposure from a few people, or lower risk of exposure from each of a large group.

While my wife is more organized & efficient about shopping, I needed to shop in person for her. It was essential for domestic tranquility.
I admit that for all my concern about getting COVID, I did go into 6 stores (none that were part of an indoor mall).  Of course, I tried to minimize my time in them.  Partly by my choice, the stores were mostly not crowded at all, but I did have to walk around a line at one.  About half had alcohol rub required before going in, which I used going out too.  I felt more exposed walking around Stanford Shopping Center than in the stores.  I saw about 6 people walking outside with their masks off, but none in the stores.  (I discovered that I really couldn't smell scents through a mask, and I sure wasn't going to take my mask off to smell perfumes.)

I hope the whole of the population was safer around Christmas than around Thanksgiving, and that we don't climb to even higher levels of COVID.
If not, I expect a broader, longer increase than Thanksgiving, and starting closer to Christmas than Thanksgiving.  Of course, post-Christmas sales & returns plus any New Year's gatherings stretch this risky time out even more.  We shall see over the next 2 weeks.
Kaiser announced on Dec. 26 that it would postpone elective and non-urgent surgeries through January 4 in Northern California.  That possibly contributed to the downturn of non-COVID patients in the ICU.

RE: Case numbers - Hurlburt88 - 12-28-2020

I went to a small local jeweler to get a gift for my wife and was pretty uncomfortable with how close people got to me and the masks below the noses, plus a lot of gaiters.  I minimized my time.  

I also saw a headline perhaps out of the UK stating that in December 18.2% of COVID cases were estimated to come from the supermarket.   No good backing in the article for how this was determined.

RE: Case numbers - Mick - 12-28-2020

(12-28-2020, 06:50 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote:  I went to a small local jeweler to get a gift for my wife and was pretty uncomfortable with how close people got to me and the masks below the noses, plus a lot of gaiters.  I minimized my time.  

I also saw a headline perhaps out of the UK stating that in December 18.2% of COVID cases were estimated to come from the supermarket.   No good backing in the article for how this was determined.

I bought my wife some jewelry over the internet.  it arrived on time, had to sign for it.  I'm trying to avoid retail as much as possible.  N95s in the supermarket and all that.

RE: Case numbers - OutsiderFan - 12-28-2020

It seems to me the more infectious strain of SARS-CoV-2 is likely in the U.S. and of course spreading, which should push infection rate higher, but we won't know how much new infection is a result of holiday activities, vs. what was the result of a more infectious virus, for some time, if ever.

One thing to keep in mind is CA is #40 in deaths per capita in the country, and #34 in cases per capita, so despite what some may say, CA has done a better job than most states mitigating its impact and protecting the lives of its residents.

And if a more infectious version is in the U.S. it's likely going to first be spreading in the New York, Boston, Washington, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle areas first. The states that aren't taking strict mitigation measures will likely be crushed by a faster spreading virus.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-25/l-a-county-is-probing-whether-a-new-more-contagious-covid-strain-is-spreading-locally

RE: Case numbers - magnus - 12-28-2020

Not saying he's right and you're wrong but genome scientist, Trevor Bedford, tentatively concludes that the new variant isn't the current driver of our increase in cases.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1343592969375416323?s=20[/tweet]

RE: Case numbers - OutsiderFan - 12-28-2020

(12-28-2020, 12:30 PM)magnus Wrote:  Not saying he's right and you're wrong but genome scientist, Trevor Bedford, tentatively concludes that the new variant isn't the current driver of our increase in cases.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1343592969375416323?s=20[/tweet]

I would guess the increase isn't yet because of new variant. More likely that it is and will be in the U.S., and be the cause of higher rates of infection at some point in our future. It just seems highly unlikely it won't spread from the UK to the U.S. given flights from UK to U.S. were happening without any restriction until recently.