Second derivatives - Printable Version
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Second derivatives - BostonCard - 12-13-2020
I am sometimes a prophet of doom and gloom here, because I am often trying to look to the future and project where we are going, which is often bad. But, if you want some good news, look at the rate of increase in cases; it is starting to level off.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1338285682888826880?s=20[/tweet]
I think there is a good chance we will hit the peak in new cases in the next week, with hospitalizations stabilizing a little later and deaths a bit after that.
BC
RE: Second derivatives - 82 Card - 12-13-2020
Another bit of good news: The relationship between new cases and deaths 22 days later has gone down. I had assumed that the lower numbers were an artifact of Thanksgiving. However, deaths have been fairly steady at about 1.45% of new cases 22 days earlier.
RE: Second derivatives - M T - 12-13-2020
(12-13-2020, 06:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I am sometimes a prophet of doom and gloom here, because I am often trying to look to the future and project where we are going, which is often bad. But, if you want some good news, look at the rate of increase in cases; it is starting to level off.If you download their data, and take the deltas of "positive increase" (ie, daily new cases) of each day versus the day a week before, you see some patterns.
Except for about 3 days plus Thanksgiving weekend, the numbers have been going up since 9/14. The rate of increase grew at the beginning of November (probably accelerated by Halloween).
The almost-sinusoidal positive half-cycle peaks 11/12, and drops to near 0 on 11/24. Presumably artificial, it goes very negative on 11/25 and immediately climbs steeply (making up for lack of testing at Thanksgiving?) to about 12/5 and then has dropped way down by 12/9, where it has somewhat flattened the last 4 days.
Personally, I don't see that we've gone negative or are necessarily on track to go negative. To me, this dramatically shows what Thanksgiving did to us. We've gotten past the immediate effects of Thanksgiving, but will there be another bounce?
(Still frustrated as I can't just attach a graph.)
82 Card: The CFR (as you are discussing) is dependent on the age of those getting the disease. You may just be seeing a younger demographic.
RE: Second derivatives - dabigv13 - 12-13-2020
Hospital length of stay is down and less people are ending up on vents. But the pure number of cases is still overwhelming. Hopefully death rates don't go up as healthcare systems become stretched. The next few weeks will be the worst of the pandemic for a lot of places. LA, San Bernadino, and the San Joaquin Valley are in rough shape We need to see that SIP bend real soon. I am optimistic we will, based on what we've seen in the Midwest. Over the next few weeks the less taxed parts of CA will likely need to be taking some transfers or moving some staff to support the worse off areas.
RE: Second derivatives - magnus - 12-13-2020
(12-13-2020, 07:31 PM)82 Card Wrote: Another bit of good news: The relationship between new cases and deaths 22 days later has gone down. I had assumed that the lower numbers were an artifact of Thanksgiving. However, deaths have been fairly steady at about 1.45% of new cases 22 days earlier.I was reading from Trevor Bedford's tweets that he was seeing 25 day lag in more recent data. Hopefully that means we're getting better at treating?
In any case, Christmas is still a big worry with all the gatherings that happen.
RE: Second derivatives - BostonCard - 12-17-2020
It does look like we may be getting close to the peak in new cases:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1339709658207010816?s=20[/tweet]
Cases this last week were up only 1.6% this last week, which is the lowest rate of increase (excepting Thanksgiving) in a while. Hospitalizations and deaths are going up quickly, though, but they are lagging indicators.
BC