Stanford Football: State of Program

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Stanford Football: State of Program - OutsiderFan - 09-28-2020

Cal fans are now hoping Shaw stays forever because they are convinced Justin Wilcox is the superior guy. Hard to argue that at this point.

It seems Shaw has the football program in a flat spin at the moment. Can he pull out of it, or is crashing and burning inevitable? My concern is he needs to eject so he can live to fly another day in a new aircraft, and he is instead going to try recovering the one he is in, convinced he has the ability to pull out when he does not.

The seven game schedule is going to reward the coaches who simplify things and create a loose culture that makes playing fun, more than ever before. I’m concerned Shaw will approach it with a “we’ll just have to live with the mistakes” mentality, not a “let’s keep it simple to avoid mental mistakes and just have fun” one. Hope I am wrong.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Phogge - 09-28-2020

You know what OF. Right now it just doesn't matter. Last night I viewed images from around the country at various football stadiums and also at some campus scenes shot during Saturday parties. Many not wearing masks. Plus Napa Valley is on fire, spot fires have forced evacuations in the Santa Rosa area and the Greystone campus of the Culinary Institute was evacuated during the night. We have political turmoil on various fronts and the possibility that a sitting president will refuse to leave the White House.

Frankly David Shaw is not even on the totem pole of concern.

Get your flu shot.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Farm93 - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 06:51 AM)Phogge Wrote: You know what OF. Right now it just doesn't matter. Last night I viewed images from around the country at various football stadiums and also at some campus scenes shot during Saturday parties. Many not wearing masks. Plus Napa Valley is on fire, spot fires have forced evacuations in the Santa Rosa area and the Greystone campus of the Culinary Institute was evacuated during the night. We have political turmoil on various fronts and the possibility that a sitting president will refuse to leave the White House.

Frankly David Shaw is not even on the totem pole of concern.

Get your flu shot.

Agree with all of that Phogge, but at least it was an attempt to put sports on our sports board.

So I am all for the sports discussion.

Let's just imagine Wilcox is a better coach than Shaw. If true, it is then likely he will not be the UCB coach in 2021.
Why? Coach Shaw's peers (multiple BCS/NY6 bowls, multiple 10 win seasons, multiple conference titles) command salaries well above $5 million per year. The UCB AD didn't have those resources or revenue stream in 2019 to pay that type of salary and definitely will not have those resources in 2021.

So if Wilcox is THAT good, then he will be gone before UCB fans will get to attend a game in Memorial Stadium.

UCB fans always believe the team NEXT year will go to the Rose Bowl. I really doubt Coach Wilcox will take UCB to 3 Rose Bowls or even 3 Pac-12 CGs this decade, but I believe that many UCBers believe that Coach Wilcox will deliver NY6 bowls wins for UCB.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - BobK - 09-28-2020

Wake me up I missed Wilcox taking cal to any Rose Bowls let alone three.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - OutsiderFan - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 07:50 AM)BobK Wrote: Wake me up I missed Wilcox taking cal to any Rose Bowls let alone three.

Nobody can take away past accomplishments. But those who achieved in the past will always be surpassed by others. It's just the cycle of life. The only question is when does the one with past accomplishments get passed by others in the present.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Papa John - 09-28-2020

I'm still on the Shaw bandwagon, but my biggest concern is recruiting, not playcalling or coaching philosophy. I chalk up last year's clusterf*** to not having quality, ready-to-play depth at way too many positions.

Having said that, if the season is actually played and the injury plague does not resurface, I think Stanford will win most of its games this year. We'll see what the schedule looks like, but UW and WSU are breaking in new coaches and new QBs, UO has the most talent overall but is breaking in a new QB and, I think, has the most quality opt-outs in the Pac-12, OSU is breaking in a new QB. Cal should be good, but they needed a last-minute rally to beat a crappy Stanford team last year.

So I would rate the state of the program for 2020 as in the top third of the Pac-12. But if the 2020 recruiting class looks like the at-the-moment 2021 recruiting class. the state of the program will decline.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - gailtate - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 09:54 AM)Papa John Wrote: I'm still on the Shaw bandwagon, but my biggest concern is recruiting, not playcalling or coaching philosophy. I chalk up last year's clusterf*** to not having quality, ready-to-play depth at way too many positions.

Having said that, if the season is actually played and the injury plague does not resurface, I think Stanford will win most of its games this year. We'll see what the schedule looks like, but UW and WSU are breaking in new coaches and new QBs, UO has the most talent overall but is breaking in a new QB and, I think, has the most quality opt-outs in the Pac-12, OSU is breaking in a new QB. Cal should be good, but they needed a last-minute rally to beat a crappy Stanford team last year.

So I would rate the state of the program for 2020 as in the top third of the Pac-12. But if the 2020 recruiting class looks like the at-the-moment 2021 recruiting class. the state of the program will decline.

I'll climb back on the bandwagon when I see evidence that it's not headed off a cliff. As for 2020? Below .500. Who's in the win-column?

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - BobK - 09-28-2020

5-2. No clue how a bowl would work.
:).

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Embo - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 03:58 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Cal fans are now hoping Shaw stays forever because they are convinced Justin Wilcox is the superior guy.

Let them. I remember how boastful they were of Ben Braun. I also recall they expected Jeff Tedford to be their Joe Paterno. Instead of a Cal Hall of Fame induction, they both got pink slips.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Maple Leaf - 09-28-2020

Jeff Tedford's record against Stanford benefited from getting six wins against Teevens and Harris combined, against Hardballs he went 2-2 and he went 0-2 against Shaw.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - OutsiderFan - 09-28-2020

I was off Tedford in 2006 and was never sold on Braun.

Wilcox is better than both of them. Having a Hall of Fame father has helped Wilcox a lot. He coached at Boise State, Washington, USC, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. This gives him a great diversity of experience in all areas of the country in many different cultures. His teams are physically tough, competitive, and he has shown an ability to get more out of his team than the sum of its parts.

Wilcox is also a defensive side of the ball wizard, who has shut down the Mike Leach offense like few others have. He has cut no corners building the Cal program and seems to be one of those guys who likes where he is. Cal gets a lot of academically strong guys but doesn’t require them to jump through the same hoops Stanford does.

If Wilcox ever gets to the point his Cal program wins more consistently than Stanford, he will start winning recruiting battles for guys Stanford must get. Derek Wilkins is a canary in a coal mine. Stanford was his dream school until Wilcox convinced him he could get as good of an education at Cal and play more winning football than at Stanford because Cal plays great defense and Stanford doesn’t anymore.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - mutoo1 - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 06:51 AM)Phogge Wrote: You know what OF. Right now it just doesn't matter. Last night I viewed images from around the country at various football stadiums and also at some campus scenes shot during Saturday parties. Many not wearing masks. Plus Napa Valley is on fire, spot fires have forced evacuations in the Santa Rosa area and the Greystone campus of the Culinary Institute was evacuated during the night. We have political turmoil on various fronts and the possibility that a sitting president will refuse to leave the White House.

Frankly David Shaw is not even on the totem pole of concern.

Get your flu shot.

to be fair, you should also note the possibility that a man suffering residual impairment from a cerebral vascular event may actually win the white house.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - Farm93 - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 12:15 PM)BobK Wrote: 5-2. No clue how a bowl would work.
:).

The bowls will all need to be in very late December or January. The finances behind the non-NY6 bowls has been shaky for a while. Travel restrictions, stadium restrictions, and almost no chance for the typical charity and fun events should mean most bowls will cancel and/or most teams will opt out.

I would suspect most coaches would prefer an extra couple of weeks of spring practice and/or the ability to start practices for the Fall 2021 campaign earlier. Those extensions normally wouldn't happen, but COVID seems to be capable of changing a lot of norms.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - donkey687 - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 05:40 PM)Farm93 Wrote:
(09-28-2020, 12:15 PM)BobK Wrote: 5-2. No clue how a bowl would work.
:).

The bowls will all need to be in very late December or January. The finances behind the non-NY6 bowls has been shaky for a while. Travel restrictions, stadium restrictions, and almost no chance for the typical charity and fun events should mean most bowls will cancel and/or most teams will opt out.

I would suspect most coaches would prefer an extra couple of weeks of spring practice and/or the ability to start practices for the Fall 2021 campaign earlier. Those extensions normally wouldn't happen, but COVID seems to be capable of changing a lot of norms.

I think the Pac12 and Big 10 should match-up with each other on December 26-28 to give Pac 12 an 8th game and bowl game replacement. They can play the games at Rose Bowl and other Socal stadiums to get better weather and Rose Bowl experience.

lex24 - lex24 - 09-28-2020

Predicting anything this year is tricky. To say the least. Too many other factors. Heck I thought the Giants would go 22-38. So, who knows.

RE: lex24 - CardinalSagehen - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 08:47 PM)lex24 Wrote: Predicting anything this year is tricky. To say the least. Too many other factors. Heck I thought the Giants would go 22-38. So, who knows.

I agree. Given the uncertainty, we might as well try to be optimistic. Enough already with all the doom-and-gloom before we've even played a down!

We have a returning 5-star QB that showed us quite a bit last year when healthy, a deep and talented WR room, two ILBs coming back from injury that are fantastic athletes and haven't really played yet, a returning (for the moment, anyway?) "lockdown" CB, and an OL that can't possibly experience as many injuries as last year. A ton of freshmen were pressed into action last year and will make the big leap into their second season - Austin Jones, Nathaniel Peat, Jonathan McGill, Walter Rouse, Branson Bragg and others. Guys like EJ Smith and Myles Hinton are entering the program and will contribute to the future. Anything can happen.

I know that the arrow has been pointing downward for a few years, Walker Little has opted out, we lost a few grad transfers that might have helped (Hamilton and Swann in particular), and the 2021 class is going to be thin. But just consider that we didn't even think we'd have Stanford Football in 2020! I kind of view this abbreviated season as all upside. Nobody is expecting much, so it will be hard to be disappointed. Some guys will move closer to graduating and the lure of the transfer portal, but technically nobody is even burning any eligibility.

If we can get through the season without a major Covid outbreak on this team, I'll probably be happy enough.

RE: lex24 - teejers1 - 09-28-2020

(09-28-2020, 09:08 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:
(09-28-2020, 08:47 PM)lex24 Wrote: Predicting anything this year is tricky. To say the least. Too many other factors. Heck I thought the Giants would go 22-38. So, who knows.

I agree. Given the uncertainty, we might as well try to be optimistic. Enough already with all the doom-and-gloom before we've even played a down!

We have a returning 5-star QB that showed us quite a bit last year when healthy, a deep and talented WR room, two ILBs coming back from injury that are fantastic athletes and haven't really played yet, a returning (for the moment, anyway?) "lockdown" CB, and an OL that can't possibly experience as many injuries as last year. A ton of freshmen were pressed into action last year and will make the big leap into their second season - Austin Jones, Nathaniel Peat, Jonathan McGill, Walter Rouse, Branson Bragg and others. Guys like EJ Smith and Myles Hinton are entering the program and will contribute to the future. Anything can happen.

The talent level - at least until very recently - has never been the reason for pessimism. Now, that may be added to the list, certainly on the defensive side of the ball.

P.S. Your threshold for happiness won't be accused of too high a bar. Still, wonder what chances of that happening are.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - BostonCard - 09-29-2020

(09-28-2020, 04:31 PM)Embo Wrote:
(09-28-2020, 03:58 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Cal fans are now hoping Shaw stays forever because they are convinced Justin Wilcox is the superior guy.

Let them. I remember how boastful they were of Ben Braun. I also recall they expected Jeff Tedford to be their Joe Paterno. Instead of a Cal Hall of Fame induction, they both got pink slips.

I mean, Harbaugh bolted Stanford after four years. I think Cal fans wouldn’t be sad to see an equivalent from Wilcox.

BC

Richard@agnich.com - Mudhead - 09-29-2020

(09-29-2020, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(09-28-2020, 04:31 PM)Embo Wrote:
(09-28-2020, 03:58 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Cal fans are now hoping Shaw stays forever because they are convinced Justin Wilcox is the superior guy.

Let them. I remember how boastful they were of Ben Braun. I also recall they expected Jeff Tedford to be their Joe Paterno. Instead of a Cal Hall of Fame induction, they both got pink slips.

I mean, Harbaugh bolted Stanford after four years. I think Cal fans wouldn’t be sad to see an equivalent from Wilcox.

BC

If Wilcox is offered one half of the money Harbaugh was offered he will be gone before you can say “Oskie”.

RE: Stanford Football: State of Program - gailtate - 09-29-2020

(09-28-2020, 04:48 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I was off Tedford in 2006 and was never sold on Braun.

Wilcox is better than both of them. Having a Hall of Fame father has helped Wilcox a lot. He coached at Boise State, Washington, USC, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. This gives him a great diversity of experience in all areas of the country in many different cultures. His teams are physically tough, competitive, and he has shown an ability to get more out of his team than the sum of its parts.

Wilcox is also a defensive side of the ball wizard, who has shut down the Mike Leach offense like few others have. He has cut no corners building the Cal program and seems to be one of those guys who likes where he is. Cal gets a lot of academically strong guys but doesn’t require them to jump through the same hoops Stanford does.

If Wilcox ever gets to the point his Cal program wins more consistently than Stanford, he will start winning recruiting battles for guys Stanford must get. Derek Wilkins is a canary in a coal mine. Stanford was his dream school until Wilcox convinced him he could get as good of an education at Cal and play more winning football than at Stanford because Cal plays great defense and Stanford doesn’t anymore.

Well put. As I've written elsewhere, two coaches clearly going in opposite directions. If Cal finds a way to retain Wilcox, right now the best coach in CA, Stanford football's reversion to its historical mean will be complete.