Any of y'all see this? CDC flu data in question - Printable Version
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Any of y'all see this? CDC flu data in question - OutsiderFan - 07-26-2020
Until reading this, I had no idea the CDC didn't report actual flu deaths, and only used algorithms to project the numbers. The theory is they did this to drive the death number up to encourage as many people getting flu shots as possible. And pneumonia deaths were apparently even tossed in with flu deaths to drive the numbers higher.
The Covid-19 pandemic has now blown up in the CDC's face, as "fake flu data" has led people to not take Covid-19 as seriously as they might have otherwise. Some of the numbers in the linked blog post are shocking.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1287479403744833546[/tweet]
lex24 - lex24 - 07-26-2020
The article she relies on was written in April. There is no story here. Here’s a CDC webpage on calculating flu deaths from Nov 2019.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
I also saw that a Yale epidemiologist/prof that claims Hydroxychloroquine if used early for high risk patients saves lives. He indicated that politics and misuse (using it later, according to the Professor is not effective) have gotten in the way.
https://thevillagereporter.com/professor-hydroxychloroquine-could-save-100000-lives-being-stifled-by-a-propaganda-war/
RE: Any of y'all see this? CDC flu data in question - BostonCard - 07-26-2020
Yes, comparing COVID-19 counted deaths to influenza estimates of death are an apples to oranges comparison. No, that doesn't mean that influenza deaths are inflated (or inflated to suit a particular purpose). Basically, not everyone who has an influenza-like illness (ILI) gets tested for influenza, nor is attributing a cause of death straightforward, since a patient who is hospitalized from influenza and then develops complications in the hospital, may or may not be coded as having died of influenza, even though they would not have died, but for having gotten influenza. The CDC models the likelihood of a patient having had influenza on the basis of the proportion of patients with ILI who test positive for influenza, and is transaprent about their methodology:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm
The same author (Faust) made a similar point about the apples to oranges comparison in a JAMA paper:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121
However, in that paper he didn't call for the CDC to revise its methodology, nor do I think it should.
BC
lex24 - lex24 - 07-26-2020
(07-26-2020, 02:40 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Yes, comparing COVID-19 counted deaths to influenza estimates of death are an apples to oranges comparison. No, that doesn't mean that influenza deaths are inflated (or inflated to suit a particular purpose). Basically, not everyone who has an influenza-like illness (ILI) gets tested for influenza, nor is attributing a cause of death straightforward, since a patient who is hospitalized from influenza and then develops complications in the hospital, may or may not be coded as having died of influenza, even though they would not have died, but for having gotten influenza. The CDC models the likelihood of a patient having had influenza on the basis of the proportion of patients with ILI who test positive for influenza, and is transaprent about their methodology:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm
The same author (Faust) made a similar point about the apples to oranges comparison in a JAMA paper:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121
However, in that paper he didn't call for the CDC to revise its methodology, nor do I think it should.
BC
In other words, this is a non story. Curious BC did you see the Yale profs discussion on Hydroxychloroquine?
RE: lex24 - BostonCard - 07-26-2020
(07-26-2020, 02:22 PM)lex24 Wrote: I also saw that a Yale epidemiologist/prof that claims Hydroxychloroquine if used early for high risk patients saves lives. He indicated that politics and misuse (using it later, according to the Professor is not effective) have gotten in the way.
https://thevillagereporter.com/professor-hydroxychloroquine-could-save-100000-lives-being-stifled-by-a-propaganda-war/
A randomized, placebo controlled trial, has shown that hydroxychloroquine ± azithromycin is not effective in preventing worsening disease when used early, as the good epidemiologist believes:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014?query=featured_home
Quote:Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care. (Funded by the Coalition Covid-19 Brazil and EMS Pharma; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04322123
BC
lex24 - lex24 - 07-26-2020
(07-26-2020, 02:43 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(07-26-2020, 02:22 PM)lex24 Wrote: I also saw that a Yale epidemiologist/prof that claims Hydroxychloroquine if used early for high risk patients saves lives. He indicated that politics and misuse (using it later, according to the Professor is not effective) have gotten in the way.
https://thevillagereporter.com/professor-hydroxychloroquine-could-save-100000-lives-being-stifled-by-a-propaganda-war/
A randomized, placebo controlled trial, has shown that hydroxychloroquine ± azithromycin is not effective in preventing worsening disease when used early, as the good epidemiologist believes:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014?query=featured_home
Quote:Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care. (Funded by the Coalition Covid-19 Brazil and EMS Pharma; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04322123
BC
Is that inconsistent with what Prof said? He stressed early use is key. Plus there is the Ford study: https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study
Not arguing. I don’t have a clue. Just trying to understand.
RE: Any of y'all see this? CDC flu data in question - BostonCard - 07-26-2020
The Ford study, which I pointed out in the long hydroxychloroquine thread, is not a randomized, placebo controlled study (there were several other observational ones). Now that we have had several randomized, placebo-controlled studies, I would give their results primacy because they are the least susceptible to bias.
In addition to the article I linked (which I did because it just came out), there was this randomized trial of hydroxychloroquine as post-exposure prophylaxis:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638
That's about as early as you can get (within four days after exposure, but before symptoms). That article finds:
Quote:After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure. (Funded by David Baszucki and Jan Ellison Baszucki and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04308668
I would not say that the question is settled, but in randomized, placebo controlled studies, hydroxychloroquine has failed to show benefit over placebo/standard of care in a variety of different settings. There is always the possibility that it works in some peculiar circumstances that haven't been correctly tested by a randomized trial or that it has a small effect that can't quite be measured by the trial, but that is becoming less and less likely as more and more studies come up empty.
This news article in Science summarizes the emerging consensus:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/three-big-studies-dim-hopes-hydroxychloroquine-can-treat-or-prevent-covid-19
Quote:The results are persuading some doctors to stop using the drug for COVID-19. “The Recovery trial, in addition to the signals from other studies we have received so far, are enough to convince me to not offer hydroxychloroquine to hospitalized patients,” Nahid Bhadelia, a physician at Boston Medical Center, wrote in an email. Martin Landray of the University of Oxford, one of Recovery’s principal investigators, agrees: “If you, your spouse, your mother gets admitted to hospital and is offered hydroxychloroquine, don’t take it,” he says.
But some scientists say they want to see the full data before making up their minds. About one in four patients died in both arms of the study, Kremsner notes—a very high rate, suggesting they were gravely ill when treatment started. Nicholas White of Mahidol University in Bangkok, who also studies hydroxychloroquine, agrees the full data need evaluation. “But overall, it’s very unlikely, in my view right now sitting here, that anything’s going to change,” he says.
BC
RE: lex24 - OutsiderFan - 07-26-2020
(07-26-2020, 02:22 PM)lex24 Wrote: Don’t know. Wonder if it’s true.
I did see that a Yale epidemiologist/prof that claims Hydroxychloroquine if used early for high risk patients saves lives. He indicated that politics and misuse (using it later, according to the Professor is not effective) have gotten in the way.
https://thevillagereporter.com/professor-hydroxychloroquine-could-save-100000-lives-being-stifled-by-a-propaganda-war/
Wonder if he’s right
I've seen some studies that have shown HCQ has efficacy when used at a very specific time early in virus infection, especially in combination with Zinc.