Beijing outbreak - Printable Version
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Beijing outbreak - fullmetal - 06-17-2020
Since Sunday, Chinese authorities have reported 130+ coronavirus cases in Beijing. They're now shutting down over 1200 commercial flights (both inbound and outbound) as well as restricting movements of people in 27 neighborhoods. All schools/colleges are closed now. They claim to have discovered traces of the virus on a salmon cutting board from the Xinfadi market (very large commercial market, supplies grocers I believe).
I have a feeling there are more cases than are being reported, as per usual.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53074076
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8427641/Beijing-shuts-schools-goes-alert-level-two-tackle-new-coronavirus-outbreak.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-beijing-official/beijing-district-in-wartime-emergency-mode-after-virus-case-spike-idUSKBN23K058?il=0
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/beijing-coronavirus-outbreak-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1273088411428171782?s=20[/tweet]
RE: Beijing outbreak - Farm93 - 06-17-2020
(06-17-2020, 02:23 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Since Sunday, Chinese authorities are reporting 130+ coronavirus cases in Beijing. They're now shutting down over 1200 commercial flights (both inbound and outbound) as well as restricting movements of people in 27 neighborhoods. They claim to have traced the outbreak to imported salmon packages from the Xinfadi market (very large commercial market, supplies grocers I believe).Loads of incentives in China to under report cases, but let's imagine instead of 130 we push that up by 100X. The USA would still have more cases.
I have a feeling there are more cases than are being reported, as per usual.
Not to dismiss the global impact of China, or any other country, potentially not disclosing all of its cases, but my belief is those in Europe and Asia are more worried about the USA's commitment to finding and reporting cases than any other country at this point.
China has been a rather guarded about disclosing bad news for decades, so governments in most countries understand how to deal with that situation. They have agents on the ground in China and know to look for sources and communication streams not meant for global consumption. And the virus left China's borders long ago, so now the global focus is on getting the worst outbreaks under control.
USA, Brazil, India and Russia are the places with the most daily cases these days. Of that set the USA is far more troubling than the others with a lot of daily cases.
RE: Beijing outbreak - Snorlax94 - 06-17-2020
Yeah this is terrible news. Along with the recent flare-up in Korea, it makes me convinced there’s no way we can get to stage 3 and stay there. If an advanced, experienced country with model contact tracing and testing (and far greater cooperation from its citizens) cannot stay in stage 3, and if an authoritarian government with control over its citizens cannot maintain containment, this bodes very poorly for the US.
And we still have growing cases even with (now) abundant ppe with decreasing prices.
Now just imagine what’d happen if factories close and supplies decrease.
Hopefully China can contain it but regardless, I wish we were responding to these warning signs. Theme parks, large indoor churches and bars should not re-open.
RE: Beijing outbreak - Farm93 - 06-17-2020
(06-17-2020, 08:45 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: Yeah this is terrible news. Along with the recent flare-up in Korea, it makes me convinced there’s no way we can get to stage 3 and stay there. If an advanced, experienced country with model contact tracing and testing (and far greater cooperation from its citizens) cannot stay in stage 3, and if an authoritarian government with control over its citizens cannot maintain containment, this bodes very poorly for the US.I really didn't believe your typical USA citizen would do enough to contain the spread. Most in Asia understand the potential dangers of a pandemic that originated in China. And yet it has still been very hard for them to keep things under control even with amazing dedication to testing AND tracing.
China more or less was OK, but their economy now depends on trade. It is just too easy for people in other places to bring the disease back to China. I don't think it is a coincidence that Beijing is the place with a problem. I would have bet on Shanghai or Beijing just because of the nature of travel.
Fast forward to October and all the world will need is one or two countries with cases to then spread the 2nd wave all over the northern hemisphere.
Brazil was always going to be a candidate for spread. India was likely to have cases over the next few months. That will be a very scary situation given their population density. If the USA is the third country then the global outbreak seems certain to happen. Companies and countries can avoid travel to Brazil and India, but those Americans tourists, expats, and military tend to travel quite a bit. That'd be three countries providing the pandemic spread, and that feels like one or two too many to avoid a second wave.
I will be diligently squirreling away my family's PPE supplies for the coming winter. Hopefully we won't need it, but buying the items now should be easier than in October if that northern hemisphere second wave emerges.
RE: Beijing outbreak - BostonCard - 06-17-2020
Well, right now we are our own worst enemy, in terms of spread. It doesn't make a difference if infected patients are coming from Brazil or anywhere else when there is so much community transmission in the US. It's like peeing in the ocean. If (and it is a big if) we are able to get the number of infections under control down to tens to hundreds per day, then we will have to worry about importing cases. Right now, I think based on normal trade patterns, Mexico is the country to worry about. They have about 4000 new cases daily (likely underreported, and rising rapidly), and they are one of the US' biggest trading partners. Under normal times, the US/Mexico border is one of the most transited in the world.
As an aside... New Zealand reported its first two cases after having zero for the last 21 days and having almost eradicated the virus.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-17/ardern-calls-in-military-after-new-zealand-quarantine-blunder
I think it shows that complete eradication is a Sisyphean task. The best most countries can do is control the infection to reduce the number of deaths and prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.
BC
RE: Beijing outbreak - Goose - 06-17-2020
(06-17-2020, 11:24 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I think it shows that complete eradication is a Sisyphean task. The best most countries can do is control the infection to reduce the number of deaths and prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.We have pretty much always been in that mode I believe. I don't think anybody thought we could eradicate this disease. The real question is what level of economic and social activity any given nation can sustain while keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed. For sure, good tracing and tracking allows higher levels of "normal" activity. However, in the US it appears we are not making much of an effort in that area. Apparently, we are trying to return almost to normal without doing much in that direction. I don't think that is going to work very well, but we will soon know.
BC
RE: Beijing outbreak - BostonCard - 06-17-2020
Yeah, I would have thought that as a society we would not be ok with hundreds of thousands of people dying, but here we are.
BC
RE: Beijing outbreak - magnus - 06-17-2020
(06-17-2020, 04:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Yeah, I would have thought that as a society we would not be ok with hundreds of thousands of people dying, but here we are.
BC
Desensitizing happens easily for humans. Sometimes a good survival trait. Sometimes not.
RE: Beijing outbreak - Farm93 - 06-17-2020
(06-17-2020, 04:54 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Yeah, I would have thought that as a society we would not be ok with hundreds of thousands of people dying, but here we are.I think many Americans believe some other people will die, and those deaths are OK. If deaths approach 250,000 we would be saying ~1 in 1,000 adults would die from COVID19. I guess that is an acceptable death rate to many Americans.
BC
I would have guessed that Americans would not want to be stuck at home for months if that meant losing their job and health care insurance. That part of the story is not shocking to me.
I would have thought that Americans would be willing to wear surgical masks and demand tracing to accelerate their access to their job and health care.
I never would have guessed that wearing a mask, widely thought by experts to reduce the risk of death, would become political.
RE: Beijing outbreak - fullmetal - 06-17-2020
When the harms appear to be confined largely to the elderly (a historically marginalized demographic in the USA), it's easy to see how $$$ would win when balanced against elderly lives.
Hubert Humphrey Wrote:The moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped.
RE: Beijing outbreak - 76lsjumb - 06-17-2020
(06-17-2020, 10:11 PM)fullmetal Wrote: When the harms appear to be confined largely to the elderly (a historically marginalized demographic in the USA), it's easy to see how $$$ would win when balanced against elderly lives.
Hubert Humphrey Wrote:The moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped.
Which is kind of why I'm a little worried about this guy on Joe Biden's Public Health Advisory Team regarding COVID-19:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/
RE: Beijing outbreak - M T - 06-18-2020
(06-17-2020, 05:22 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I think many Americans believe some other people will die, and those deaths are OK. If deaths approach 250,000 we would be saying ~1 in 1,000 adults would die from COVID19. I guess that is an acceptable death rate to many Americans.
I wouldn't put it the way you put it. There's a temporal aspect to the deaths.
The 1 in 1000 is applied to the full population. Since we see age, comorbidity (+ blood type), ethnic, and social associations with chances of getting the disease and then chances of dying from it, your death chances may vary.
Los Angeles had 965 reported COVID-19 deaths and 32,403 cases (out of 407,463 tested) from May 15 to June 15. Annualized, that's 11,370 in 9.5M, or ~1.2 per 1000. More traditionally, that's 120 per 100K per year. LA's normal, raw all-cause death rate is 615.7 per 100K. So, death rate appears to be up 19.5%. That's a brobdingnagian jump, IMO.
To calculate a CFR, I will use the new cases from the month a week earlier (May 8 - June 8, during which 437,860 tests were given, 4.6% of the 9.5M population, 7.2% positive rate)
965/31670 = 3.047%
(Why a week? NYC and Italy deaths peaked a week after new cases peaked. I had thought it should be more delayed.)
You can argue all you want about how the IFR should be lower, but just applying that CFR to the 9.5M LACo (minus Pasadena, LB) population gives a raw number of 289,469 (about 25 years worth of 11,370 dying per year).
To be clear, the tests only detect current illness (last 2 weeks or so, if that). The 400K negative tests and the 9M untested people could have all had previous asymptomatic cases and (potentially) never get COVID-19 again.
RE: Beijing outbreak - g1313 - 06-18-2020
I think for many (most) people, statistics have limited ability to affect behavior, and people rely on their lived experience. A 20% increase is a lot, but because of the small baseline rate it still means that the chance that the average person is not close to anyone who has died from COVID is pretty high.
(06-18-2020, 06:15 AM)M T Wrote:(06-17-2020, 05:22 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I think many Americans believe some other people will die, and those deaths are OK. If deaths approach 250,000 we would be saying ~1 in 1,000 adults would die from COVID19. I guess that is an acceptable death rate to many Americans.
I wouldn't put it the way you put it. There's a temporal aspect to the deaths.
The 1 in 1000 is applied to the full population. Since we see age, comorbidity (+ blood type), ethnic, and social associations with chances of getting the disease and then chances of dying from it, your death chances may vary.
Los Angeles had 965 reported COVID-19 deaths and 32,403 cases (out of 407,463 tested) from May 15 to June 15. Annualized, that's 11,370 in 9.5M, or ~1.2 per 1000. More traditionally, that's 120 per 100K per year. LA's normal, raw all-cause death rate is 615.7 per 100K. So, death rate appears to be up 19.5%. That's a of immense proportions jump, IMO.
To calculate a CFR, I will use the new cases from the month a week earlier (May 8 - June 8, during which 437,860 tests were given, 4.6% of the 9.5M population, 7.2% positive rate)
965/31670 = 3.047%
(Why a week? NYC and Italy deaths peaked a week after new cases peaked. I had thought it should be more delayed.)
You can argue all you want about how the IFR should be lower, but just applying that CFR to the 9.5M LACo (minus Pasadena, LB) population gives a raw number of 289,469 (about 25 years worth of 11,370 dying per year).
To be clear, the tests only detect current illness (last 2 weeks or so, if that). The 400K negative tests and the 9M untested people could have all had previous asymptomatic cases and (potentially) never get COVID-19 again.
RE: Beijing outbreak - OutsiderFan - 06-19-2020
(06-18-2020, 11:38 AM)g1313 Wrote: I think for many (most) people, statistics have limited ability to affect behavior, and people rely on their lived experience.
This isn’t even up for debate by any serious person. Putting Covid-19 aside, look at the statistics for the national debt, what the Federal Reserve is doing to us, and for climate change. All the numbers are horrifying. Any one of them should lead to people in the streets just like BLM, but there is no collective outrage to address them because very few people have seen the knee on neck murder video metaphor for them.
Speaking of metaphors, one of my heroes is Bill Moyers. I saw an interview with him and Christiane Amanpour yesterday where he spoke to what precipitates change. He cited Joseph Campbell who said if you want to change something it needs a strong metaphor people can easily grasp. The Floyd murder video was one of the most powerful and moving metaphors we have ever witnessed because look at what has happened since society was exposed to it.
Tear gassing the American people for a photo op with an upside down bible was a metaphor strong enough to end a presidency. Now we need one to move people on the Federal Reserve destroying us and climate change.