The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic - Printable Version
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The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic - 82lsju - 06-08-2020
Quote:Governments around the world are responding to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with unprecedented policies designed to slow the growth rate of infections. Many actions, such as closing schools and restricting populations to their homes, impose large and visible costs on society, but their benefits cannot be directly observed and are currently understood only through process-based simulations. Here, we compile new data on 1,717 local, regional, and national non-pharmaceutical interventions deployed in the ongoing pandemic across localities in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France, and the United States (US).
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We estimate that across these six countries, interventions prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million confirmed cases, corresponding to averting roughly 530 million total infections. These findings may help inform whether or when these policies should be deployed, intensified, or lifted, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8
Quote:The Imperial team used death data to infer changes in the course of the COVID-19 epidemic as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions. They analysed data from 11 countries in Europe, including the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany and Belgium, up until 4 May 2020.
The team estimate that by that date between 12 and 15 million individuals in these countries had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (3.2% to 4% of the population, with large country-to-country fluctuations). By comparing the number of observed deaths against those predicted by their model in the absence of interventions, the authors suggest that approximately 3.1 million deaths have been averted due to non-pharmaceutical measures.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/198074/lockdown-school-closures-europe-have-prevented/
RE: The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic - Hurlburt88 - 06-09-2020
Thanks, interesting stuff. Personally, I am frustrated in general and in specific daily interactions I have with people at how little of this type of education ends up getting disseminated.