CDC publishes COVID-19 parameter estimates - Printable Version

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CDC publishes COVID-19 parameter estimates - BostonCard - 05-22-2020

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

The data is meant mostly for people modeling the pandemic, but it is a pretty good look at the CDC's thinking on both the best estimates of various parameters, and the range of possibilities.  Their "scenario 5" represents the most likely estimates, the range represents what was quoted in some of the other scenarios (which are supposed to represent best and worst cases).  Some parameters are constant.

R0: 2.5 (range in other scenarios 2-3)
CFR: 0.4% (range 0.2 - 1%)
% asymptomatic: 35% (20 - 50%)
% transmission prior to symptom onset: 40%
Time from exposure to symptom onset: 6 days

Based on the CFR and % asymptomatic, you can estimate the IFR as 0.26%.  That strikes me as a bit lower than I might expect.

BC

The percent asymptomatic strikes and CFR (not IFR) strike me as a bit low

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RE: CDC publishes COVID-19 parameter estimates - burger - 05-22-2020

This biologist thinks CDC's numbers are way too low.  He's right.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263757164230791168/photo/1[/tweet]

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RE: CDC publishes COVID-19 parameter estimates - oldalum - 05-22-2020

I guess it's just a coincidence that the CDC's numbers are shaded in the same direction as the President's preferences for death projections?

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