R0 of 5-6? - Printable Version
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R0 of 5-6? - JustAnotherFan - 05-17-2020
"Covid-19 may be much more contagious than we thought."
"Alarmingly, during the past several weeks, epidemiologists have been discussing the possibility that the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), originally thought to be in the 2 to 3 range, may be closer to 5 to 6."
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought
Your thoughts?
RE: R0 of 5-6? - M T - 05-17-2020
(05-17-2020, 03:15 PM)JustAnotherFan Wrote: "Covid-19 may be much more contagious than we thought."
"Alarmingly, during the past several weeks, epidemiologists have been discussing the possibility that the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), originally thought to be in the 2 to 3 range, may be closer to 5 to 6."
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought
Your thoughts?
Feb. 11 preprint from Los Alamos National Lab (published here): "the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6." Of course, that was before the information about asymptomatic cases (that China mostly missed in their widespread use of thermometers to detect cases).
Since TB was brought up elsewhere as a very infectious disease, I thought I'd check its numbers.
Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis
"The serial interval estimates from four studies were: 0.57, 1.42, 1.44 and 1.65 years ... The reproductive number estimates ranged from 0.24 in the Netherlands (during 1933-2007) to 4.3 in China in 2012."
Most of the estimates of the serial interval for COVID-19 that I've seen have been on the order of 4 days.
RE: R0 of 5-6? - fullmetal - 05-18-2020
The percentage of the population requiring immunity before herd immunity begins to take effect is (1 - 1/R0)*100. For an R0 of 5, the herd immunity threshold for a population would be 80%, substantially larger than the 50-60% figure that my pro-Sweden-uber-alles social media friends have been promoting.
Herd immunity and R0