The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - Printable Version
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The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - burger - 05-08-2020
Scientists isolated a virus in Malaysian pangolins that is highly similar to SARS-Cov-2 for several proteins, including a 100% match for one protein and a difference of 1 amino acid in a key receptor-binding domain (critical for attaching to the ACE2 protein in humans).
The most likely scenario is that this pangolin virus combined with a bat coronavirus in a wet market to give us covid-19.
The China lab theory needs to be put to rest. If you want to get mad at China, get mad at them for abetting the international wildlife trade and not closing their wet markets after SARS 1.
Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2313-x
A useful twitter thread:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/davidrliu/status/1258605468878098437[/tweet]
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - martyup - 05-08-2020
Yes, but were they not studying this virus in the Wuhan lab before it broke out? Couldn't the virus be traced to pangolins or bats and the pandemic still be caused by the virus escaping from the Wuhan lab?
Also, what is the difference if the virus originated in the Wuhan wet market or the Wuhan lab? The beef with China is they lied about the nature of the virus after it broke out. They silenced whistle blowers that tried to warn the world of this virus. They downplayed the contagiousness, while not allowing outside scientists to independently study the virus and confirm the Chinese information. They allowed people to travel from the Wuhan province to places all over the world, but didn't allow them to travel to other parts of China.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - burger - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 08:08 AM)martyup Wrote: Yes, but were they not studying this virus in the Wuhan lab before it broke out? Couldn't the virus be traced to pangolins or bats and the pandemic still be caused by the virus escaping from the Wuhan lab?
Also, what is the difference if the virus originated in the Wuhan wet market or the Wuhan lab? The beef with China is they lied about the nature of the virus after it broke out. They silenced whistle blowers that tried to warn the world of this virus. They downplayed the contagiousness, while not allowing outside scientists to independently study the virus and confirm the Chinese information. They allowed people to travel from the Wuhan province to places all over the world, but didn't allow them to travel to other parts of China.
It's exceptionally unlikely that the lab would have been injecting pangolin coronaviruses into bats and, also, that the resulting virus somehow got into humans. Wet markets have all sorts of species in cages next to one another. A "natural" (wet-market-abetted) origin for the virus is far more likely than a lab.
China lied, but somehow countries like Taiwan and South Korea and a bunch of others were able to prepare. Makes me think that the fault is with our leadership, not China's.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - BostonCard - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 08:08 AM)martyup Wrote: Yes, but were they not studying this virus in the Wuhan lab before it broke out? Couldn't the virus be traced to pangolins or bats and the pandemic still be caused by the virus escaping from the Wuhan lab?
Also, what is the difference if the virus originated in the Wuhan wet market or the Wuhan lab? The beef with China is they lied about the nature of the virus after it broke out. They silenced whistle blowers that tried to warn the world of this virus. They downplayed the contagiousness, while not allowing outside scientists to independently study the virus and confirm the Chinese information. They allowed people to travel from the Wuhan province to places all over the world, but didn't allow them to travel to other parts of China.
Yes, we all agree that the beef with China is that they lied about the nature of the virus after it broke out, silenced whistle blowers, downplayed the contagiousness, etc. But those of us pushing back against the Wuhan lab theory are doing it because people are putting that theory out, presumably to increase China's culpability in the whole thing. There was an entire thread on the board titled "Escape from the Chinese Lab" https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19427. Even in the reply to the OP, the entire first paragraph is devoted to keeping the possibility that the virus escaped from a lab alive. So let me turn that back. If we agree that the beef with China is the response to the virus after it broke out, why don't we focus on that, and not speculate about labs in Wuhan until there is evidence that it escaped the lab in Wuhan.
BC
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - OutsiderFan - 05-08-2020
No wonder Mike Pompeo is walking his propaganda back now.
This is awesome news and makes a ton of sense! Love science and TRUTH!
Thanks, burger, for sharing!
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 2006alum - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 08:30 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: No wonder Mike Pompeo is walking his propaganda back now.
This is awesome news and makes a ton of sense! Love science and TRUTH!
Thanks, burger, for sharing!
In conversations with friends and family about the attempts by governments to spin, obsfucate, etc. about the virus, I have found myself increasingly paraphrasing one of my favorite memes of the early 2010s:
![[Image: 16146898.gif]](https://images.gr-assets.com/hostedimages/1441755463ra/16146898.gif)
Like the honeybadger, the virus don't care, the virus don't give a sh!t. No amount of reality TV instincts will change the underlying fact that the virus is invulnerable to spin and BS, and following the science will be the only way out of this.
We can blame China until the cows come home, but until we follow the science and public health officials, the virus is going to keep spreading and killing, and all the image management in the world won't change that.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - ChicagoCard - 05-08-2020
I think the narrative about Taiwan's, Singapore's and S. Korea's wherewithal in having an organized, early response has to do with the SARS outbreak of the early 2000s when they had to figure things out for themselves.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - BostonCard - 05-08-2020
Australia and New Zealand were able to get the infection under control and did not have to respond to SARS in the 2000s. New Zealand had 1 case yesterday, and has 20 deaths, total. Australia had 21 new cases yesterday, and 97 total deaths. And note that New Zealand is a popular tourist destination for Chinese and Australia has very large commercial ties to China, so it is not a matter of them being isolated from China.
BC
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - burger - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 08:52 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: I think the narrative about Taiwan's, Singapore's and S. Korea's wherewithal in having an organized, early response has to do with the SARS outbreak of the early 2000s when they had to figure things out for themselves.My point was that these countries responded early. Having the post-SARS infrastructure in place surely helped, but so did taking the virus seriously as early as January. The US did not have the history with SARS, but we could have done more early.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - ChicagoCard - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 09:03 AM)burger Wrote:And I don't disagree with that.(05-08-2020, 08:52 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: I think the narrative about Taiwan's, Singapore's and S. Korea's wherewithal in having an organized, early response has to do with the SARS outbreak of the early 2000s when they had to figure things out for themselves.My point was that these countries responded early. Having the post-SARS infrastructure in place surely helped, but so did taking the virus seriously as early as January. The US did not have the history with SARS, but we could have done more early.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - martyup - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 09:03 AM)burger Wrote:(05-08-2020, 08:52 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: I think the narrative about Taiwan's, Singapore's and S. Korea's wherewithal in having an organized, early response has to do with the SARS outbreak of the early 2000s when they had to figure things out for themselves.My point was that these countries responded early. Having the post-SARS infrastructure in place surely helped, but so did taking the virus seriously as early as January. The US did not have the history with SARS, but we could have done more early.
Right, like daily cleaning of the NYC subway system? If that did not slow NYC deaths, then shutting it down?
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 2006alum - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 09:55 AM)martyup Wrote:(05-08-2020, 09:03 AM)burger Wrote:(05-08-2020, 08:52 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: I think the narrative about Taiwan's, Singapore's and S. Korea's wherewithal in having an organized, early response has to do with the SARS outbreak of the early 2000s when they had to figure things out for themselves.My point was that these countries responded early. Having the post-SARS infrastructure in place surely helped, but so did taking the virus seriously as early as January. The US did not have the history with SARS, but we could have done more early.
Right, like daily cleaning of the NYC subway system? If that did not slow NYC deaths, then shutting it down?
Permanently shutting down the subway system in NYC would be like barricading all major roads in Idaho. I can't even imagine how many pitchforks would be raised and cries of tyranny uttered on Faux News were such a thing to happen. Among other things, most first responders and hospital employees commute via the MTA, so shutting that down would strand hospitals, fire departments, and police departments without their workers.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - martyup - 05-08-2020
Well, its not permant but it was shut down last night.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 2006alum - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 10:08 AM)martyup Wrote: Well, its not permant but it was shut down last night.
Do you even read the articles you link to? They announced this last week, and they are only closing it 4 hours per day, from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. That is far from a permanent shutdown to prevent virus transmission.
And IMHO, the primary reason they did this was not out of a concern that the cars were covered in virus, but rather to have a pretext for ejecting the "disgusting" (Cuomo's words) homeless people sleeping on now-near-vacant subway cars overnight. But before they could do that, they had to figure out the logistics of providing extra bus and dial-a-ride transit to ensure essential personnel can get to work for overnight shifts, which is no easy task given the vast reach of the NYC subway system across the four boroughs.
And again, insofar as they haven't yet found swabs of virus all over subway cars, it's not even clear what difference this would make, other than as a way to permanently remove the homeless from taking up residence in overnight subway cars. I don't necessarily oppose that move, but it's not at all clear to me why this (versus many other failings of NY and NYC leadership) is the best evidence of how NY leaders left their residents to die.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - martyup - 05-08-2020
Let me get this straight. The rest of the country must shut down and shelter in place because this is an extremely contagious virus and lives on surfaces for days. People living in counties with zero deaths must SiP to stop the spread of Covid-19. But in the city with the most deaths in the world can merely randomly test the surfaces in its extensive subway system and justify cramming cars with citizens because the tests don't show the virus on surfaces. Do we need a double blind study to accept that the virus was spread on the subway system? Add to this sending Covid-19 positive people to nursing homes and you round out the great work of the leaders in New York.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - BostonCard - 05-08-2020
https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/2020/04/08/new-york-city-subway-ridership-down-92-percent-due-to-coronavirus/
NY City subway ridership is down 92% due to coronavirus. That hardly sounds like "cramming cars with citizens".
BC
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - 2006alum - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 10:48 AM)martyup Wrote: Let me get this straight. The rest of the country must shut down and shelter in place because this is an extremely contagious virus and lives on surfaces for days. People living in counties with zero deaths must SiP to stop the spread of Covid-19. But in the city with the most deaths in the world can merely randomly test the surfaces in its extensive subway system and justify cramming cars with citizens because the tests don't show the virus on surfaces. Do we need a double blind study to accept that the virus was spread on the subway system? Add to this sending Covid-19 positive people to nursing homes and you round out the great work of the leaders in New York.
I've been sheltering in place for two months, and the entire time I've been able to get in my car, drive to the grocery store/Costco/Walgreens, etc., visit multiple elderly relatives to drop off supplies and do errands for them. My point is that if you shut down the NYC subway system permanently, that would be like keeping everyone off the roads 24/7. It's like not being allowed to take your car out of your garage. That is the analogy.
And if you read the article you linked to (which you clearly have not), you'd see that most people are just taking the expanded bus service instead, so shutting down the NYC subway just moves the disease vector from the subway to the bus. Not clear to me how much good that accomplishes.
I fully agree that dense cities like NYC are a brobdingnagian challenge, because they're entirely reliant on densely packed public transportation systems to function. But precisely for that reason, NYC would entirely cease to function were the subway permanently shut down, in the same way your town would cease to function no one was allowed to take their car out of their driveway for two months.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - martyup - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 10:15 AM)2006alum Wrote:(05-08-2020, 10:08 AM)martyup Wrote: Well, its not permant but it was shut down last night.Do you even read the articles you link to? They announced this last week, and they are only closing it 4 hours per day, from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. That is far from a permanent shutdown to prevent virus transmission.
Yes, I do read the articles I link. Why do you ask? The article says:
Quote:As the subway system ground to a halt early Wednesday morning, it marked a watershed moment in New York City’s history: the first planned overnight shutdown of the subway since the system opened 115 years ago.
(05-08-2020, 10:52 AM)BostonCard Wrote: https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/2020/04/08/new-york-city-subway-ridership-down-92-percent-due-to-coronavirus/
NY City subway ridership is down 92% due to coronavirus. That hardly sounds like "cramming cars with citizens".
BC
To my knowledge, there have been no restrictions on the number of people who may use the subway in NYC during this shutdown. The fact that ridership is down 92% shows that people don't need strict laws and rules to socially distance. Most people will protect themselves when necessary. I guess what rubs me raw is that the rest of the country is forced to socially distance under threat of jail, but in NYC you are free to decide for yourself whether it is safe to take the subway. With no deaths in my county and very few cases, we queue up 6 feet apart to be allowed to enter a limited capacity Walmart or Home Depot. At the same time you can sit elbow to elbow with a stranger on the NYC subway. I just don't think they have done enough in NYC to slow the deaths.
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - JustAnotherFan - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 10:52 AM)BostonCard Wrote: https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/2020/04/08/new-york-city-subway-ridership-down-92-percent-due-to-coronavirus/
NY City subway ridership is down 92% due to coronavirus. That hardly sounds like "cramming cars with citizens".
BC
Problem is that it is not down 92% everywhere. The poorest, least white, higher immigrant neighborhoods that supply a disproportionate percentage of essential workers still use the subways, but the city cut service to many of those neighborhoods. So a subway car in these neighborhoods is still well past 8% pre-pandemic capacity.
https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2020/04/08/advocates-mta-must-redistribute-service-to-protect-low-income-essential-workers/
RE: The virus originated in pangolins, not a Chinese lab - stupac2 - 05-08-2020
(05-08-2020, 10:55 AM)martyup Wrote: I guess what rubs me raw is that the rest of the country is forced to socially distance under threat of jail, but in NYC you are free to decide for yourself whether it is safe to take the subway.
No they're not free to decide that. NYC still has a SIP order and limits non-essential travel. 2006's whole point is that for NYC shutting down the subway entirely would be like shutting down all the roads in most places. How would you fair with your groceries etc if all the roads near you were shut down?
Which isn't to defend the government in NY, pretty much everyone on here has been critical of them this whole time. It's just that you seem to think that subway is some frivolous thing people can live without when it's very much not.