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Interview w/Dr. Sara Cody: When Can SCC Re-Open - Printable Version

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Interview w/Dr. Sara Cody: When Can SCC Re-Open - Snorlax94 - 05-04-2020

I’m a bit frustrated — SCC’s numbers are relatively much better than many places, which is a great testament to that office, the healthcare workers, the community and officials here. And yet as other places are easing Friday, SCC will not. We’re at 7 weeks and we’re approaching how long Wuhan was locked down (though theirs was obviously a more iron-fisted lockdown).

But in terms of what she plans to have in place “in weeks”, that sounds encouraging. Sigh. I can wait weeks more, especially if containment-level testing and tracing is in place by then. I do wish they’d open more parks and maybe some curbside service. More parks would actually decrease crowding.


https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-qa-santa-clara-county-health-officer-sara-cody-not-going-to-squander-the-sacrifices/

Q Has it been hard to coordinate with other Bay Area health officers?

A When we put in the first shelter-in-place in mid-March, we got ourselves on the same page. That, to be honest, seems harder and harder now, because then it was very clear that’s what was needed. And the issue about how do you reopen, where do you reopen, how fast do you go, that’s in some ways far, far more complex.

Q When do you expect contact tracing to get to the point that you’re confident of lifting restrictions?
A We are obviously doing part of that scope of work now, finalizing plans for rapid scaling, literally hundreds of people. We want to proceed gingerly, but we do want to be able to open things up. We cannot stay sheltered in place until a vaccine arrives.

Q How long until we reach that scale of contact tracing?


A Within weeks.

RE: Interview w/Dr. Sara Cody: When Can SCC Re-Open - Farm93 - 05-04-2020

(05-04-2020, 06:51 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  I’m a bit frustrated — SCC’s numbers are relatively much better than many places, which is a great testament to that office, the healthcare workers, the community and officials here. And yet as other places are easing Friday, SCC will not. We’re at 7 weeks and we’re approaching how long Wuhan was locked down (though theirs was obviously a more iron-fisted lockdown).

But in terms of what she plans to have in place “in weeks”, that sounds encouraging. Sigh. I can wait weeks more, especially if containment-level testing and tracing is in place by then. I do wish they’d open more parks and maybe some curbside service. More parks would actually decrease crowding.


https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-qa-santa-clara-county-health-officer-sara-cody-not-going-to-squander-the-sacrifices/

Q Has it been hard to coordinate with other Bay Area health officers?

A When we put in the first shelter-in-place in mid-March, we got ourselves on the same page. That, to be honest, seems harder and harder now, because then it was very clear that’s what was needed. And the issue about how do you reopen, where do you reopen, how fast do you go, that’s in some ways far, far more complex.

Q When do you expect contact tracing to get to the point that you’re confident of lifting restrictions?
A We are obviously doing part of that scope of work now, finalizing plans for rapid scaling, literally hundreds of people. We want to proceed gingerly, but we do want to be able to open things up. We cannot stay sheltered in place until a vaccine arrives.

Q How long until we reach that scale of contact tracing?


A Within weeks.
By all accounts SF Bay Area should have been a massive epicenter.   Early cases, population density in SF, large use of public transportation.
And yet the SF Bay Area results are the envy of the USA.   So I think I would rather be frustrated with relatively happy health care workers, than roaming the malls with health care workers in tears every night.

According the POTUS45's own guidelines CA should not move to phase 2 yet because LA county is not meeting the decline criteria or the tracing requirements.   Still everyone is pushing forward anyway because USA citizens are impatient.  Much like you I guess.  Almost every other country in the world has stated the USA is not ready yet.   (Too many cases, limited testing, and very limited tracing)  

Apparently POTUS' team even has predictions of 3,000 deaths per day in June because of the recent changes by governors.  Re-election chances are much better if there is a rebound to the economy before end of Q3 and that only happens if we go for it here in early May. 

I suspect in 60 days it will be clear which path/bet was better, but I would put my money with the SCC-Health Officer, Fauci and other health officials.   SF Bay Area timing and approach are aligned with global standards.   

The USA....is #1 is cases and deaths for a reason and now we are working hard to win the per capita titles too.  
USA! USA!

RE: Interview w/Dr. Sara Cody: When Can SCC Re-Open - Goose - 05-04-2020

(05-04-2020, 06:51 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  I’m a bit frustrated — SCC’s numbers are relatively much better than many places, which is a great testament to that office, the healthcare workers, the community and officials here. And yet as other places are easing Friday, SCC will not. We’re at 7 weeks and we’re approaching how long Wuhan was locked down (though theirs was obviously a more iron-fisted lockdown).

But in terms of what she plans to have in place “in weeks”, that sounds encouraging. Sigh. I can wait weeks more, especially if containment-level testing and tracing is in place by then. I do wish they’d open more parks and maybe some curbside service. More parks would actually decrease crowding.


https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-qa-santa-clara-county-health-officer-sara-cody-not-going-to-squander-the-sacrifices/

Q Has it been hard to coordinate with other Bay Area health officers?

A When we put in the first shelter-in-place in mid-March, we got ourselves on the same page. That, to be honest, seems harder and harder now, because then it was very clear that’s what was needed. And the issue about how do you reopen, where do you reopen, how fast do you go, that’s in some ways far, far more complex.

Q When do you expect contact tracing to get to the point that you’re confident of lifting restrictions?
A We are obviously doing part of that scope of work now, finalizing plans for rapid scaling, literally hundreds of people. We want to proceed gingerly, but we do want to be able to open things up. We cannot stay sheltered in place until a vaccine arrives.

Q How long until we reach that scale of contact tracing?


A Within weeks.
Why weeks? What was going on in the last 45 days? "finalizing plans for rapid scaling, literally hundreds of people." It takes this long to finalize plans, but you can execute the plans in weeks??????? Something isn't right here. I also really don't like the reference to testing being inadequate as being debilitating. A problem, yes, but a showstopper? They can't trace anyone, even those who did test positive? Again, doesn't make sense. The shoe-leather epidemiology needs to happen with or without testing. If you are tracing peoples contacts, yes, your testing needs increase. But they aren't doing that. "We do not have data. Since case counts started to accelerate in March, we have not been doing those case investigations of how might you have gotten this infection, which was the whole reason we put shelter-in-place into effect." I can understand being overwhelmed with the case load. But why stop doing what you can to at least run as many contacts to ground as possible? You don't need tests to quarantine probable spread. It is a force multiplier but not a necessity. Wuhan proved that.

RE: Interview w/Dr. Sara Cody: When Can SCC Re-Open - 82 Card - 05-04-2020

(05-04-2020, 08:31 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  The USA....is #1 is cases and deaths for a reason and now we are working hard to win the per capita titles too.  

USA! USA!

In population adjusted data, it will be hard to beat out San Marino. If you exclude jurisdictions with less than 1 million population, the US us currently in 5th place in total cases per million, according to Worldometers site. They currently have the top 10 in cases/million as:

  1. Qatar         5620
  2. Spain         5311
  3. Ireland       4409
  4. Belgium      4337
  5. USA           3664
  6. Italy           3505
  7. Switzerland 3464
  8. Singapore   3210
  9. UK             2807
  10. France       2596
We're ranked a little lower in deaths per million at 9th place:

  1. Belgium     684
  2. Spain        544
  3. Italy          481
  4. UK            423
  5. France      386
  6. Netherlands  297
  7. Sweden     274
  8. Ireland      267
  9. USA           211
  10. Switzerland 206
So far, we look better than most of the other top 10 countries in deaths relative to number of cases. However, we are probably earlier in the process. I keep hoping that this country can get its act together in time to avoid coming anywhere near the title. I'm not holding my breath.

RE: Interview w/Dr. Sara Cody: When Can SCC Re-Open - Farm93 - 05-05-2020

(05-04-2020, 09:36 PM)82 Card Wrote:  
(05-04-2020, 08:31 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  The USA....is #1 is cases and deaths for a reason and now we are working hard to win the per capita titles too.  

USA! USA!

In population adjusted data, it will be hard to beat out San Marino. If you exclude jurisdictions with less than 1 million population, the US us currently in 5th place in total cases per million, according to Worldometers site. They currently have the top 10 in cases/million as:

  1. Qatar         5620
  2. Spain         5311
  3. Ireland       4409
  4. Belgium      4337
  5. USA           3664
  6. Italy           3505
  7. Switzerland 3464
  8. Singapore   3210
  9. UK             2807
  10. France       2596
We're ranked a little lower in deaths per million at 9th place:

  1. Belgium     684
  2. Spain        544
  3. Italy          481
  4. UK            423
  5. France      386
  6. Netherlands  297
  7. Sweden     274
  8. Ireland      267
  9. USA           211
  10. Switzerland 206
So far, we look better than most of the other top 10 countries in deaths relative to number of cases. However, we are probably earlier in the process. I keep hoping that this country can get its act together in time to avoid coming anywhere near the title. I'm not holding my breath.

A little city state is not really eligible for global greatness.   Qatar is only a touch bigger.
No matter though, USA is apparently up for the challenge.

A security guard in Michigan was murdered because he insisted a few customers wear masks.
A park ranger was tossed in the water for a similar request.

Those acts, and many more, are not consistent with a country focused on defeating a virus.   

USA spends more on health care than any other country.
USA's population density should should mean we would not appear on per capita worst lists.

Most in the USA seem to understand we are vulnerable, but there will be more than enough citizens out and about for the virus to thrive.