Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th

Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - Printable Version

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Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - burger - 05-04-2020

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AsmKevinMcCarty/status/1257389127881969667[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/KTLA/status/1257389673124696068[/tweet]
:/ This feels okay for northern CA but too soon for the LA area which has a lot of cases still.

A few more details. I haven't seen anything on schools yet, which are supposedly part of phase 2.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1257392907826483202[/tweet]

I really wish they'd throw the public a bone by opening up state parks, beaches etc. It's getting hotter, and people need an outlet from staying in their houses.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - OutsiderFan - 05-05-2020

California just reported its highest single day confirmed case increase so far, today. That’s a little discouraging considering CA is ready to lift restrictions.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - magnus - 05-05-2020

(05-05-2020, 07:15 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: California just reported its highest single day confirmed case increase so far, today. That’s a little discouraging considering CA is ready to lift restrictions.

Wouldn't be surprised if Newsom changes course in the next day or two.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - OutsiderFan - 05-05-2020

It looks like it is time to put a moat around L.A. County because by far the most cases are developing there. It’s a bit like the Tri-State area compared to the United States a couple weeks ago.

Just 11 new confirmed cases in SCC today. About 1,500 in LAC.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - akiddoc - 05-05-2020

(05-05-2020, 07:15 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: California just reported its highest single day confirmed case increase so far, today. That’s a little discouraging considering CA is ready to lift restrictions.

Testing is ramping up. We're going to have an increase in cases. We are testing anyone who wants it now at both of my jobs. The real issue is hospitalizations and deaths. If those go down, we're good.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - burger - 05-05-2020

(05-05-2020, 07:15 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: California just reported its highest single day confirmed case increase so far, today. That’s a little discouraging considering CA is ready to lift restrictions.

The number of tests being done per day in CA has gone up quite a bit the last few days. So an increase in positives might not be a terrible sign.

Looking at the % of positive tests would be useful to see if this is just a consequence of more testing. An increase in the positive % combined with more tests would be a very bad sign.

I'm away from my computer now but I can pull the numbers tomorrow.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - OutsiderFan - 05-05-2020

I know Newsom spoke of ramped up testing and goals, and they had surpassed the initial benchmarks. Has testing increased substantially in LAC vs. SCC?

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - BostonCard - 05-05-2020

(05-04-2020, 12:30 PM)burger Wrote: I really wish they'd throw the public a bone by opening up state parks, beaches etc. It's getting hotter, and people need an outlet from staying in their houses.

They are opening up some beaches.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/california-allows-more-orange-county-beaches-to-reopen

I worry a bit that if they only open up select beaches, it will further concentrate beachgoers into a smaller area, making social distancing harder. Almost better to open everything up and hope that will dilute people.

BC

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - Leftcoast - 05-05-2020

Santa Clara testing counts are climbing while positive test percentage is dropping per the county dashboard (see below). The overall positive rate is 6.6% since the inception of the dashboard but it's much lower since the expanded testing approximately 12 days ago. Do we have similar data for LA county?

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

(Relevant dashboard is the third block from the top)

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - Farm93 - 05-05-2020

(05-05-2020, 08:03 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(05-04-2020, 12:30 PM)burger Wrote: I really wish they'd throw the public a bone by opening up state parks, beaches etc. It's getting hotter, and people need an outlet from staying in their houses.

They are opening up some beaches.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/california-allows-more-orange-county-beaches-to-reopen

I worry a bit that if they only open up select beaches, it will further concentrate beachgoers into a smaller area, making social distancing harder. Almost better to open everything up and hope that will dilute people.

BC

In the OC that compromise to open beaches from 6AM to 10AM M-F is for recreational activities only. That's rather key because there are not that many people in the OC that use the beach for exercise, and almost no one from LA county will drive to the beach just to leave at 10AM.

FWIW - I think Newsom could start CA this week because LA county will not move forward with the rest of the State of California at the start.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - Snorlax94 - 05-05-2020

Regardless of whether one thinks we can partially move to phase 2 starting Friday, one bit of good news I heard — I read Newsom gave as two of the reasons parts of CA could start to partially move to phase 2 was because of the contact tracing coming online, and because of the PPE the state will be able to share with businesses.

Although I know many of us have wished the contact tracing came online sooner, since Newsom’s announcement to mobilize an “army” of contact tracers a few weeks ago, it sounds like things have been moving quickly. Quick enough for Friday?? I share people’s concerns about LA, but regardless, more PPE and more contact tracing are good things!

“The two universities will work with local health departments across the state's 58 counties to run a 20-hour virtual and in-person academy to develop an army of coronavirus contact tracers who will have the skills to trace the local spread of coronavirus cases.

The state's 58 counties and three cities with their own health departments have roughly 3,000 contact tracers already in the field, according to Newsom. The goal of the partnership is to prepare some 20,000 new tracers across the state, including about 3,000 per week by the first week of July.
...
Since that localized program began three weeks ago, UCSF has already trained 240 tracers and 110 are already working in the field.”

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/ucsf-partnering-with-state-on-contact-tracing-training/2284931/

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - OutsiderFan - 05-06-2020

California does have more resources than any other state, but look at what it has done.

- Data driven response
- Ramped up ventilator inventory by scouring state and working with Bloom Energy
- Acquired or contracted with hotels/motels to generate surge capacity
- Housed homeless and figured out how to feed them with Jose Andres
- Found adequate PPE resources
- Developed plan to deliver food to Seniors to keep them home and help restaurants
- Built up testing capacity
- Ordered massive data reporting and transparency
- Initiated a scalable contact tracing operation
- Had a budget surplus that could be tapped to do it all

Many of these things most people probably felt were impossible, but CA just found a way. If CA can’t keep Covid at manageable levels without significant NPIs in place, hard to think any state can, because it’s hard to imagine any state has done better than CA dealing with the challenges posed by this pandemic. Now if L.A. County can just get its act together.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - BostonCard - 05-06-2020

Having trained in pulmonary and critical care, a lot of my former colleagues are deployed in various ICU's around the counrty. While I had functionally abandoned Facebook for a while, I recently started reconnecting in order to get first hand accounts from the front lines. Here's one, from an ICU doctor in the LA area:

Quote:COVID Updates:

It is now ~week 8 of COVID for the [hospital\ crew and despite >6 weeks of shelter-in-place in LA, our ICU numbers unexpectedly spiked this past week. Though we have planned for this for weeks which made mobilizing physicians and moving patients to other ICUs more straightforward than it could have been, our ICU group really felt it this week. After an entire day of meetings and then an evening of making schedules for the 2020-21 year and realizing how many back-up systems I now need, I came home on Friday night absolutely defeated. Perhaps what I was also feeling was my colleagues and trainees going from a mode of "ready for battle" to much more of a disheartened state of mind. We wonder if this is ever going to end - the deaths, the grieving, the suffering, the stress/anxiety of everyone involved compounded by the social isolation. How can this possibly go on for months to years?

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - dabigv13 - 05-06-2020

LA has some areas improving, others worsening, and others still on plateau. OC worsening but not as bad as LA right now. PPE is still a very real issue. Normal surgical masks no issue, but n95 masks and gowns limited. Increased testing ability is a bright spot.

I think there is some low hanging fruit for reopening in California that wouldn't drive numbers up too much. But significant relaxation of SIP still seems like it shouldn't come any time soon.

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - M T - 05-07-2020

(05-05-2020, 08:09 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: Santa Clara testing counts are climbing while positive test percentage is dropping per the county dashboard (see below). The overall positive rate is 6.6% since the inception of the dashboard but it's much lower since the expanded testing approximately 12 days ago. Do we have similar data for LA county?

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

(Relevant dashboard is the third block from the top)

LA City (not incl. Long Beach, Pasadena) dashboard. (Click on Testing on the left. Then Daily.)
L.A. apparently doesn't figure that the epidemic is bad enough to have people work on weekends, so their number of tests fall over the weekend. (I'm not sure if it is test givers, test processing, or the people that take the results and put them in the charts)
So their numbers jump all around.

You can download data at "Counts by Date Table". (I realized while composing this note that this does NOT allow you to compute %positives.)

These data do NOT show the number of positive tests, but shows the number of cases and the number of tests. If a person tests positive on April 1, but then tests negative later, (or vice versa) maybe they're going back and changing the accounting that is a case or not.    That's appropriate for reporting the number of cases, for any particular point in time, but alters the measured positive rate of the daily tests.    (Given that, you can have fun guessing why for 5 days, they had to adjust the number of new cases by roughly 4%.)

I took a snapshot of their data and compared it to a snapshot 2 days later (this morning). At 12 days back, there were > 1800 tests added for that one day. At 13 days back, there were nearly 2800 tests added for that one day. There was not a single day over the past month that didn't change in the "new persons tested" (some are negative, but none were 0). Same thing is true for "new cases" (ie, daily cases). Of the past 35 days that I checked, only one day's daily new cases didn't change (17 days back).   12 to 16 days back, the new numbers reduce the daily cases by 22 to 49 per day. At that 17 days back, the total number of positives (over all time up to 76 days ago) was up by 191, then got reduced over those 5 days by 171 (to just up by 20).

Except for a few stragglers, recorded deaths only increased over the most recent 8 days (from the earlier snapshot; 10 days relative to now.)

The number of tests over the last four 7-day periods: (old to new): 27,737; 40,998; 37,030; 26,551
The most recent number (26K) is under-reported at this time. I would not be surprised if another 4K tests came in from 7 to 14 days back. So testing may be increasing, but not much in the past 2 weeks.

(Note that SCC has "Positive Results" equal to "Total Cases" which seems unlikely. So "Positive Results" probably isn't a raw number of outcome over the number of tests given.)

RE: Newsom: phase 2 starts May 8th - Goose - 05-07-2020

(05-07-2020, 07:02 AM)M T Wrote: (Note that SCC has "Positive Results" equal to "Total Cases" which seems unlikely. So "Positive Results" probably isn't a raw number of outcome over the number of tests given.)

At one point SCC was saying that "positive" results for one patient were only reported once, while multiple negative samples from a single patient may result in multiple negative reports. It is a bit strange that SCC seems to be saying that a positive test is the only way they diagnose COVID-19. Certainly in other areas some cases (many cases in fact) were diagnosed without testing at all or without testing positive. Does seem strange to me also.