Vietnam figured it out - Printable Version
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Vietnam figured it out - BostonCard - 04-22-2020
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cyber-vietnam-idUSKCN2241C8
They figured out the Chinese were lying and just hacked into the CCP emergency management and Wuhan government emails to find out what was actually going on.
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - 2006alum - 04-22-2020
(04-22-2020, 11:22 PM)BostonCard Wrote: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cyber-vietnam-idUSKCN2241C8You may be only half right. It's not at all clear that the hacking attempts worked:
They figured out the Chinese were lying and just hacked into the CCP emergency management and Wuhan government emails to find out what was actually going on.
BC
Quote:It is unclear if the intrusion attempts in China were successful but the attacks show that hackers ranging from cyber criminals to state-backed spies have had to quickly reorganise their operations in response to the coronavirus, said John Hultquist, senior director of analysis at Mandiant.
...but to that end, the social contact tracing and the quarantines certainly have:
Quote:Vietnam was quick to react to first reports of the new coronavirus, sealing off its border with neighbouring China and implementing an aggressive programme of contact tracing and quarantine measures that have kept cases of infection in the country below 300.
Strange that months after Vietnam figured it out we're still crawling our way to (nation-wide) contact tracing and (individualized) quarantine measures.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - fullmetal - 04-23-2020
Vietnam is not lacking in centralized authority and leadership. Also, they rolled out a propaganda campaign to boost compliance that was well-received by the people. One wonders whether the US would have done the same in a similar situation.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Farm93 - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 01:28 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Vietnam is not lacking in centralized authority and leadership. Also, they rolled out a propaganda campaign to boost compliance that was well-received by the people. One wonders whether the US would have done the same in a similar situation.They weren't the only ones to figure it out. Essentially all of the countries that were burned by China with SARS have in their pandemic response playbook to never assume China will tell the truth if a pandemic emerges from China. Given that those countries had SARS issues, the people in those countries were ready to take action and discount any assurances coming from China.
The countries that ring China are doing fairly well with COVID-19, and will almost certainly benefit economically in 2020 & 2021 as a result.
Essentially, SARS served as a form of vaccine for COVID19. The governments that had been burned by China's SARS stories were quick to take action when a familiar story emerged in late 2019 and early 2020. The governments in Europe and the USA didn't have similar immune system responses.
Maybe when SARS-CoV3 rolls out of China the USA's government and citizens will be quick to respond too.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
To quote Ronald Reagan, "Trust, but verify".
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Genuine Realist - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 06:37 AM)Farm93 Wrote:I had read that a disaster with SARS in 2015 had led to a complete reconfiguration of the pandemic response in South Korea. I hadn't realized that applied to all the nations that ring China.(04-23-2020, 01:28 AM)fullmetal Wrote: Vietnam is not lacking in centralized authority and leadership. Also, they rolled out a propaganda campaign to boost compliance that was well-received by the people. One wonders whether the US would have done the same in a similar situation.They weren't the only ones to figure it out. Essentially all of the countries that were burned by China with SARS have in their pandemic response playbook to never assume China will tell the truth if a pandemic emerges from China. Given that those countries had SARS issues, the people in those countries were ready to take action and discount any assurances coming from China.
The countries that ring China are doing fairly well with COVID-19, and will almost certainly benefit economically in 2020 & 2021 as a result.
Essentially, SARS served as a form of vaccine for COVID19. The governments that had been burned by China's SARS stories were quick to take action when a familiar story emerged in late 2019 and early 2020. The governments in Europe and the USA didn't have similar immune system responses.
Maybe when SARS-CoV3 rolls out of China the USA's government and citizens will be quick to respond too.
Consider the implication. This is the SECOND time China has done this - within five years.
For reasons of domestic public dialog, many here are reluctant to blame China. I don't think that this applies to any other nation in the world.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - ChicagoCard - 04-23-2020
Are you referring to the 2002-03 SARS outbreak that was miraculously eradicated? Or what was it that occurred in 2015?
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Genuine Realist - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 07:34 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: Are you referring to the 2002-03 SARS outbreak that was miraculously eradicated? Or what was it that occurred in 2015?The factoid referred to 2015, which evidently had more impact in South Korea than it should have. The legislature undertook a comprehensive overhaul of its health care systems. This proved quite useful in the present situation.
Googling quickly, it was a MERS-CoV outbreak in mid 2015.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - stupac2 - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 08:04 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote:(04-23-2020, 07:34 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: Are you referring to the 2002-03 SARS outbreak that was miraculously eradicated? Or what was it that occurred in 2015?The factoid referred to 2015, which evidently had more impact in South Korea than it should have. The legislature undertook a comprehensive overhaul of its health care systems. This proved quite useful in the present situation.
Googling quickly, it was a MERS-CoV outbreak in mid 2015.
MERS came from Saudi Arabia (it stands for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). As far as I can tell it bypassed China, it got into South Korea directly from the affect middle-eastern states. I think "the second time China has done this in 20 years" is fair, though.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
MERS didn't originate in China, though. The first patient was diagnosed in Saudi Arabia, and the big outbreak in 2015 was in South Korea (partly why they were able to respond to this outbreak so well). The only patient who has been diagnosed in China was a South Korean. The South Korean outbreak was started by a man returning from the Middle East and had no connection to China:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak_in_South_Korea
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Genuine Realist - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 08:31 AM)BostonCard Wrote: MERS didn't originate in China, though. The first patient was diagnosed in Saudi Arabia, and the big outbreak in 2015 was in South Korea (partly why they were able to respond to this outbreak so well). The only patient who has been diagnosed in China was a South Korean. The South Korean outbreak was started by a man returning from the Middle East and had no connection to China:I stand corrected on that, although it is apparently true that the failure of health systems with respect to MERS led to the overhaul that made South Korea's response relatively successful this time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome_outbreak_in_South_Korea
BC
But back to your original post, and query the cause of the regional cynicism about Chinese reporting.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 08:51 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: But back to your original post, and query the cause of the regional cynicism about Chinese reporting.
Of course there is good reason to be cynical of Chinese reporting. I don't think anyone is saying that Chinese reporting has been good. The question is why was Chinese reporting being taken at face value when it came to our own response to COVID-19, when everyone knew that the reporting was questionable. The idea that this administration was blindsided by inaccurate Chinese information seems a bit of a stretch, and in any case, if true would seem to represent a failure in its own right.
My guess is that the administration is not actually that dumb to have taken Chinese data at face value and actually knew the Chinese figures were unreliable, making any unreliability about Chinese data a bit of a red herring. I would take more comfort in knowing that the administration knew and is just using China as an excuse than that they were so incompetent as to have taken the Chinese reports at face value.
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Goose - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 06:37 AM)Farm93 Wrote: They weren't the only ones to figure it out. Essentially all of the countries that were burned by China with SARS have in their pandemic response playbook to never assume China will tell the truth if a pandemic emerges from China. Given that those countries had SARS issues, the people in those countries were ready to take action and discount any assurances coming from China.
The countries that ring China are doing fairly well with COVID-19, and will almost certainly benefit economically in 2020 & 2021 as a result.
Essentially, SARS served as a form of vaccine for COVID19. The governments that had been burned by China's SARS stories were quick to take action when a familiar story emerged in late 2019 and early 2020. The governments in Europe and the USA didn't have similar immune system responses.
Maybe when SARS-CoV3 rolls out of China the USA's government and citizens will be quick to respond too.
I believe it was a more fundamental vaccination. Those nations saw a preview of the COVID-19 situation and developed the ability to respond to the facts on the ground in their own country. They learned from hard experience that it doesn't matter what ANYBODY (China, Who, CDC, etc.) is saying. Each nation must be ready to respond organically to health emergencies and do so without relying on the politicians to do the "right thing" immediately without fail. The early stages are key to containing the spread. It is hard to do if one needs a national emergency declaration just to get started. These nations have professionals on the job doing this task all the time. These professionals slowed things down enough that a "track and trace" approach was practical. The heads of state didn't have to be involved from day 1.
In the distant past the USA also had aggressive program in place to respond to epidemic disease. We haven't faced such a problem in a very long time. All levels of government have become complacent. The county health departments are not continuously getting ready for an epidemic and planning to fight it. The state health departments are not staffed or resourced to do so either. The Federal response is great in helping fight Ebola in Liberia but not so much for COVID-19 in Washington State. The countries that got hit by SARS and MERS were "inoculated" and mounted an immediate response. We weren't and Europe wasn't.
While I do understand the arguments that the Federal Executive branch "should" have responded more effectively than they did, I think it is unrealistic to expect much quicker action than we got. Some better leadership at the HHS would have been useful. Let's face it. The Presidents, be it Clinton, Bush, Obama, or Trump don't know anything about epidemics. They are reliant on those under them to guide the response. Some Presidents are going to be better than others in evaluating and reacting to advice. However, I don't think the response would have changed much unless somebody in the HHS department made a decision to sound the alarm so loudly it couldn't be ignored. It would involve being sure enough and courageous enough to risk your credibility and career. Nobody did that. Worse still, from ventilator maintenance to test production the "normal" functions of the Federal government were not effective. These are functions that don't require Presidential intervention or acts of congress to be executed successfully. Those failures were IMHO much more of a problem than slow reaction times at the top.
Equally bad in some similar respects were the state responses. Remember when Newsome was on the news at the company that was replacing batteries and certifying the ventilators from the federal stockpile that didn't work? In an "Oh, by the way..." he mentioned that the company was also fixing several hundred ventilators from the state stockpile with similar problems. The "rot" in our epidemic response was deep and wide.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Scooter_Stepford - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 11:25 AM)Goose Wrote:(04-23-2020, 06:37 AM)Farm93 Wrote: They weren't the only ones to figure it out. Essentially all of the countries that were burned by China with SARS have in their pandemic response playbook to never assume China will tell the truth if a pandemic emerges from China. Given that those countries had SARS issues, the people in those countries were ready to take action and discount any assurances coming from China.
The countries that ring China are doing fairly well with COVID-19, and will almost certainly benefit economically in 2020 & 2021 as a result.
Essentially, SARS served as a form of vaccine for COVID19. The governments that had been burned by China's SARS stories were quick to take action when a familiar story emerged in late 2019 and early 2020. The governments in Europe and the USA didn't have similar immune system responses.
Maybe when SARS-CoV3 rolls out of China the USA's government and citizens will be quick to respond too.
I believe it was a more fundamental vaccination. Those nations saw a preview of the COVID-19 situation and developed the ability to respond to the facts on the ground in their own country. They learned from hard experience that it doesn't matter what ANYBODY (China, Who, CDC, etc.) is saying. Each nation must be ready to respond organically to health emergencies and do so without relying on the politicians to do the "right thing" immediately without fail. The early stages are key to containing the spread. It is hard to do if one needs a national emergency declaration just to get started. These nations have professionals on the job doing this task all the time. These professionals slowed things down enough that a "track and trace" approach was practical. The heads of state didn't have to be involved from day 1.
In the distant past the USA also had aggressive program in place to respond to epidemic disease. We haven't faced such a problem in a very long time. All levels of government have become complacent. The county health departments are not continuously getting ready for an epidemic and planning to fight it. The state health departments are not staffed or resourced to do so either. The Federal response is great in helping fight Ebola in Liberia but not so much for COVID-19 in Washington State. The countries that got hit by SARS and MERS were "inoculated" and mounted an immediate response. We weren't and Europe wasn't.
While I do understand the arguments that the Federal Executive branch "should" have responded more effectively than they did, I think it is unrealistic to expect much quicker action than we got. Some better leadership at the HHS would have been useful. Let's face it. The Presidents, be it Clinton, Bush, Obama, or Trump don't know anything about epidemics. They are reliant on those under them to guide the response. Some Presidents are going to be better than others in evaluating and reacting to advice. However, I don't think the response would have changed much unless somebody in the HHS department made a decision to sound the alarm so loudly it couldn't be ignored. It would involve being sure enough and courageous enough to risk your credibility and career. Nobody did that. Worse still, from ventilator maintenance to test production the "normal" functions of the Federal government were not effective. These are functions that don't require Presidential intervention or acts of congress to be executed successfully. Those failures were IMHO much more of a problem than slow reaction times at the top.
Equally bad in some similar respects were the state responses. Remember when Newsome was on the news at the company that was replacing batteries and certifying the ventilators from the federal stockpile that didn't work? In an "Oh, by the way..." he mentioned that the company was also fixing several hundred ventilators from the state stockpile with similar problems. The "rot" in our epidemic response was deep and wide.
+1 gazillion.
Nailed it again, Goose.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Genuine Realist - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 11:51 AM)Scooter_Stepford Wrote:It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.(04-23-2020, 11:25 AM)Goose Wrote:(04-23-2020, 06:37 AM)Farm93 Wrote: They weren't the only ones to figure it out. Essentially all of the countries that were burned by China with SARS have in their pandemic response playbook to never assume China will tell the truth if a pandemic emerges from China. Given that those countries had SARS issues, the people in those countries were ready to take action and discount any assurances coming from China.
The countries that ring China are doing fairly well with COVID-19, and will almost certainly benefit economically in 2020 & 2021 as a result.
Essentially, SARS served as a form of vaccine for COVID19. The governments that had been burned by China's SARS stories were quick to take action when a familiar story emerged in late 2019 and early 2020. The governments in Europe and the USA didn't have similar immune system responses.
Maybe when SARS-CoV3 rolls out of China the USA's government and citizens will be quick to respond too.
I believe it was a more fundamental vaccination. Those nations saw a preview of the COVID-19 situation and developed the ability to respond to the facts on the ground in their own country. They learned from hard experience that it doesn't matter what ANYBODY (China, Who, CDC, etc.) is saying. Each nation must be ready to respond organically to health emergencies and do so without relying on the politicians to do the "right thing" immediately without fail. The early stages are key to containing the spread. It is hard to do if one needs a national emergency declaration just to get started. These nations have professionals on the job doing this task all the time. These professionals slowed things down enough that a "track and trace" approach was practical. The heads of state didn't have to be involved from day 1.
In the distant past the USA also had aggressive program in place to respond to epidemic disease. We haven't faced such a problem in a very long time. All levels of government have become complacent. The county health departments are not continuously getting ready for an epidemic and planning to fight it. The state health departments are not staffed or resourced to do so either. The Federal response is great in helping fight Ebola in Liberia but not so much for COVID-19 in Washington State. The countries that got hit by SARS and MERS were "inoculated" and mounted an immediate response. We weren't and Europe wasn't.
While I do understand the arguments that the Federal Executive branch "should" have responded more effectively than they did, I think it is unrealistic to expect much quicker action than we got. Some better leadership at the HHS would have been useful. Let's face it. The Presidents, be it Clinton, Bush, Obama, or Trump don't know anything about epidemics. They are reliant on those under them to guide the response. Some Presidents are going to be better than others in evaluating and reacting to advice. However, I don't think the response would have changed much unless somebody in the HHS department made a decision to sound the alarm so loudly it couldn't be ignored. It would involve being sure enough and courageous enough to risk your credibility and career. Nobody did that. Worse still, from ventilator maintenance to test production the "normal" functions of the Federal government were not effective. These are functions that don't require Presidential intervention or acts of congress to be executed successfully. Those failures were IMHO much more of a problem than slow reaction times at the top.
Equally bad in some similar respects were the state responses. Remember when Newsome was on the news at the company that was replacing batteries and certifying the ventilators from the federal stockpile that didn't work? In an "Oh, by the way..." he mentioned that the company was also fixing several hundred ventilators from the state stockpile with similar problems. The "rot" in our epidemic response was deep and wide.
+1 gazillion.
Nailed it again, Goose.
Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Farm93 - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 12:13 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.That's not completely accurate. The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook. Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns.
Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.
Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security. I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.
There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics. They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness. I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.
I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany. My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS. COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA. However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Goose - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 01:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote: There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics. They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness. I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.Could you post a link to a version of these playbooks? I would like to give them a read.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Genuine Realist - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 01:05 PM)Farm93 Wrote:I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea. I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this.(04-23-2020, 12:13 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.That's not completely accurate. The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook. Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns.
Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.
Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security. I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.
There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics. They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness. I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.
I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany. My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS. COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA. However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.
I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.
RE: Vietnam figured it out - BostonCard - 04-23-2020
Then there is also the joint pandemic simulation run during the Obama/Trump transitio:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
Note the praise in the article for George W. Bush:
Quote:The 2016 law came about at the urging of the Partnership for Public Service, a good-government organization that helps administrations and candidates with the transition process. The emergency preparedness provisions were inspired by how George W. Bush handled his transition to Obama; that process, regarded as the gold standard for transition planning, included joint exercises on how to react to improvised explosive devices in cities. Bush had insisted on a detailed and highly coordinated transition planning in part because he felt scarred by the rushed transition he’d experienced from the Bill Clinton administration, not to mention having to deal with the Sept. 11 attacks during his first year.
BC
RE: Vietnam figured it out - Goose - 04-23-2020
(04-23-2020, 12:13 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote: It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.
Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.
I would still leave Bush in my list. That he was aware of the issues and did in fact to create a response plan is very much to his credit. If that plan would have generated actionable data sooner then possibly he would have acted sooner. He also may have been a man who was more disposed toward action than other presidents. However reading a book wouldn't remove his reliance on the experts that work for him or make him an expert on epidemics. He isn't going to read detailed reports on respiratory diseases per person in the US every day, or even every week. Nor should he. He has "people" for that. They would have to come to him and forcefully recommend action. Until they did that, nothing would happen. This is not saying it would have been a failing on these President's part. That is just how the system works and kind of has to work. You better hope you have good people working for you that you trust, who have good judgement and who are willing to take the career risks necessary to make correct, timely, and clear recommendations.
An example of this is that Angela Merlel greatly benefited because the State Of Bavaria health service jumped right on the "hot spots" in their state and made an aggressive set of reports outlining what they found. Lots of credit for the German response has to go to them.