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What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - Printable Version

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What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - Snorlax94 - 04-16-2020

I know a few people seem to feel that the lockdowns are doing more harm than good.

And now, the advent of “social distancing deniers”.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-home-orders/index.html

People in some states are putting a lot of pressure on their governors to lift the Shelter In Places. It feels like some governors will do just that, maybe in a few weeks, even if adequate testing and contact tracing are not in place to contain things without a Shelter In Place.

I have a feeling this will end very badly for those states, and I’m glad California is not in driving distance of them, plus, with its high cost of living and Nancy Pelosi politics, CA will hopefully be an unattractive destination if things degrade in other states horrifically. We may find out what it looks like to achieve herd immunity the fast way.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 07:31 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  I know a few people seem to feel that the lockdowns are doing more harm than good.

And now, the advent of “social distancing deniers”.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-home-orders/index.html

People in some states are putting a lot of pressure on their governors to lift the Shelter In Places. It feels like some governors will do just that, maybe in a few weeks, even if adequate testing and contact tracing are not in place to contain things without a Shelter In Place.

I have a feeling this will end very badly for those states, and I’m glad California is not in driving distance of them, plus, with its high cost of living and Nancy Pelosi politics, CA will hopefully be an unattractive destination if things degrade in other states horrifically. We may find out what it looks like to achieve herd immunity the fast way.

With the tone of the post, it is almost as if you're rooting for the worst to happen in "fly over" country. Wouldn't you want them to be successful? I certainly hope they are. . . .

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - Snorlax94 - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 07:39 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  
(04-16-2020, 07:31 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  I know a few people seem to feel that the lockdowns are doing more harm than good.

And now, the advent of “social distancing deniers”.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-home-orders/index.html

People in some states are putting a lot of pressure on their governors to lift the Shelter In Places. It feels like some governors will do just that, maybe in a few weeks, even if adequate testing and contact tracing are not in place to contain things without a Shelter In Place.

I have a feeling this will end very badly for those states, and I’m glad California is not in driving distance of them, plus, with its high cost of living and Nancy Pelosi politics, CA will hopefully be an unattractive destination if things degrade in other states horrifically. We may find out what it looks like to achieve herd immunity the fast way.

With the tone of the post, it is almost as if you're rooting for the worst to happen in "fly over" country. Wouldn't you want them to be successful? I certainly hope they are. . . .
I absolutely want people in those states to do well, be safe and be healthy. I have family and friends in many of those states, and I wish them the best by hoping they don’t ruin themselves.

It's like watching a loved one play Russian roulette, except you know there is a bullet in every chamber, and someone is asking, why are you so down? Maybe they are going to win!

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - Genuine Realist - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 07:43 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  
(04-16-2020, 07:39 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  
(04-16-2020, 07:31 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  I know a few people seem to feel that the lockdowns are doing more harm than good.

And now, the advent of “social distancing deniers”.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/us/protests-coronavirus-stay-home-orders/index.html

People in some states are putting a lot of pressure on their governors to lift the Shelter In Places. It feels like some governors will do just that, maybe in a few weeks, even if adequate testing and contact tracing are not in place to contain things without a Shelter In Place.

I have a feeling this will end very badly for those states, and I’m glad California is not in driving distance of them, plus, with its high cost of living and Nancy Pelosi politics, CA will hopefully be an unattractive destination if things degrade in other states horrifically. We may find out what it looks like to achieve herd immunity the fast way.

With the tone of the post, it is almost as if you're rooting for the worst to happen in "fly over" country. Wouldn't you want them to be successful? I certainly hope they are. . . .
I absolutely want people in those states to do well, be safe and be healthy. I have family and friends in many of those states, and I wish them the best by hoping they don’t ruin themselves.
I know you're completely sincere, and I mean that without irony. But you can ruin yourself in all sorts of different ways. The virus is just one of them.

I put this thread together with BC's rather depressing thread on asymptomatic transmission. What's implied is a shutdown of indefinite duration. That won't work. What we have to begin to consider is appropriate social distancing measures in an open economy. Also, I think we have to trust the public to take care of itself. No one is going to go charging back into crowded places, no matter what the ordinance permits.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - chrisk - 04-16-2020

This is the WH Plan

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - Goose - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 08:08 PM)chrisk Wrote:  This is the WH Plan

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

This plan is, IMHO, pretty good. It is actionable. There are definite conditions that must be met for transitions between phases. There are capabilities required at each stage. It is made clear that these capabilities must be organic and not rely on external "help". One may argue with the conditions actual parameters, but at least they exist. It goes without saying that the states don't have to follow this guidance, but I do think it is a good place to start. If a state/county wants to be more conservative (or less so, I guess), they may.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - Snorlax94 - 04-16-2020

The parts I saw so far look good but I focus on one particular section:
TESTING & CONTACT TRACING

No one disputes the US should open when it is ready, and is capable to test and contact trace the number of cases it has and will get, and when it has enough planning in place to facilitate social distancing (maybe non-medical masks, cashier partitions, etc.). The concern is that pressure is being put on states to open BEFORE THESE ITEMS ON THE CHECKLIST ARE IN PLACE. (Also, the checklist lists "the ability to set up testing and screening..." versus already having in place adequate testing and screening).

It all goes back to what people on this thread have been screaming about since the beginning, and that is that the lack of testing, contact tracing and other items (like PPE), is killing us and killing our economy.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - Genuine Realist - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 08:15 PM)Goose Wrote:  
(04-16-2020, 08:08 PM)chrisk Wrote:  This is the WH Plan

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

This plan is, IMHO, pretty good. It is actionable. There are definite conditions that must be met for transitions between phases. There are capabilities required at each stage. It is made clear that these capabilities must be organic and not rely on external "help". One may argue with the conditions actual parameters, but at least they exist. It goes without saying that the states don't have to follow this guidance, but I do think it is a good place to start. If a state/county wants to be more conservative (or less so, I guess), they may.
It is pretty good. The criticism will be that it's bromidic.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - magnus - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 07:57 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:   No one is going to go charging back into crowded places, no matter what the ordinance permits.
I'm not so sure.  Consider how many things had to be closed because people wouldn't respect social distance (parks, beaches, and churches, for example).

There will always be people that will ignore the best interests of others or even themselves.  Hopefully, they are a minority and don't become super spreaders.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - BostonCard - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 08:18 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:  
(04-16-2020, 08:15 PM)Goose Wrote:  
(04-16-2020, 08:08 PM)chrisk Wrote:  This is the WH Plan

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

This plan is, IMHO, pretty good. It is actionable. There are definite conditions that must be met for transitions between phases. There are capabilities required at each stage. It is made clear that these capabilities must be organic and not rely on external "help". One may argue with the conditions actual parameters, but at least they exist. It goes without saying that the states don't have to follow this guidance, but I do think it is a good place to start. If a state/county wants to be more conservative (or less so, I guess), they may.
It is pretty good. The criticism will be that it's bromidic.

I for one, won't criticize it on that basis.  The challenge that the White House is facing (and one it appears to have realized) is that there are too many variables that are going to have to go into decisions about reopening to be able to be overly prescriptive.  So the best you can do is to offer broad guidelines, and let individual states (or counties within the states) interpret them and apply their local situation.  For all the bruhaha over Trump's original proclamation that he had the divine right (OK, hyperbolizing a little) to overrule governors and force states to open up, in the end he (appropriately) recognized how impossible that would be and delegated to the governors and provided a guidance instead.  I've seen enough of Trump to recognize that his actions don't always match his words, but I really wish he would have taken this approach from the get go.

BC

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - teejers1 - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 07:43 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  It's like watching a loved one play Russian roulette, except you know there is a bullet in every chamber, and someone is asking, why are you so down? Maybe they are going to win!

C'mon now . . . 

If by "bullet" you mean "an increase in cases."  Yes.
If by "bullet" you mean "an increase in deaths."  Overwhelmingly probable.  

If you mean the states that allow some easing of restrictions are going to be far "worse off" than if they kept lock down in place . . . well, you have no idea (unless you define things in that very restrictive way).

Be ready for the inevitable . . . expect it . . . and deal with it.  [But "it" isn't going to be the wildfire spreads we saw initially in Italy and NYC, imo.  Too many people will self-shut-in; those that go out will take more precautions, as will establishments that re-open.  Plus, if actual cases are 5x to 10x of reported cases, that resistance will also work against wildfire spread.

All this is of course speculation on human behavior.  And I don't think we're ready to ease restrictions now.  But I'd like to think we will be this summer . . . and at some point, you have to let people out of their cages.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - BostonCard - 04-16-2020

(04-16-2020, 07:57 PM)Genuine Realist Wrote:  I put this thread together with BC's rather depressing thread on asymptomatic transmission. What's implied is a shutdown of indefinite duration. That won't work. What we have to begin to consider is appropriate social distancing measures in an open economy. Also, I think we have to trust the public to take care of itself. No one is going to go charging back into crowded places, no matter what the ordinance permits.

I continue to advocate for aggressive testing, tracking, and isolation once we get the worst of the outbreak under control. Remember for a virus with an R0 of 2 - 3, you don't have to catch everyone; you just have to catch and isolate 1/2 to 2/3 of the exposed people before they can infect someone else.

BC

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - chrisk - 04-16-2020

The framework isn't bad, but the devil is in the details it doesn't get into. Testing and tracing, in particular. Even if the testing can be ramped up sufficiently, there will be an even bigger challenge in hiring and training all the contact tracers that will be required.

With more people out and about, enforcement will be difficult in certain areas. Enforcing proper social distancing in restaurants and movie theaters will not be easy. For college and pro sports, how will it work if Arizona, Alablama allows limited spectators in August and California does not allow any spectators until January?

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - magnus - 04-16-2020

A local farmer's market is reopening this weekend. To ensure compliance,  they are making every shopper sign a code of conduct.   Perhaps we will see more of those in the future.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - Goose - 04-17-2020

(04-16-2020, 09:49 PM)chrisk Wrote:  The framework isn't bad, but the devil is in the details it doesn't get into.  Testing and tracing, in particular.  Even if the testing can be ramped up sufficiently, there will be an even bigger challenge in hiring and training all the contact tracers that will be required.
That is what I also thought. However, San Mateo County seems to think they can do it with minimal new hires and reassigning existing staff. They are a department with a good reputation, so I have reason to believe they are not just hoping for the best. I have seen some indications that other jurisdictions are hiring, but not in droves. It may be that the plan is to get new infections down to a level that can be managed by existing resources, more or less. That will be a judgement call on a county by county basis if that is the plan. Not sure that is going to work out well, as that number may be so low people will not be willing to wait that long.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - terry - 04-17-2020

(04-16-2020, 09:19 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  For all the bruhaha over Trump's original proclamation that he had the divine right (OK, hyperbolizing a little) to overrule governors and force states to open up, in the end he (appropriately) recognized how impossible that would be and delegated to the governors and provided a guidance instead.  

He can't delegate power he never had.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - martyup - 04-17-2020

If you want to compare re-opening commerce in a state to Russian roulette . . . think of a gun that holds 100 bullets and only one is loaded in a chamber AND you can avoid coming in range of the gun if you are careful.  If you are old or at-risk there might be 10 bullets loaded, so you should be more cautious.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - burger - 04-17-2020

(04-17-2020, 09:45 AM)martyup Wrote:  If you want to compare re-opening commerce in a state to Russian roulette . . . think of a gun that holds 100 bullets and only one is loaded in a chamber AND you can avoid coming in range of the gun if you are careful.  If you are old or at-risk there might be 10 bullets loaded, so you should be more cautious.
This analogy is wrong.  Pre-symptomatic spread + lack of effective PPE for nearly everyone + the need to work or do other things out of the house means that many people have no defense whatsoever against getting the virus if they are unlucky enough to be exposed.

Also, there are outcomes besides death that are really bad.  So the risk of harm is >> 1/100.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - stupac2 - 04-17-2020

(04-17-2020, 09:55 AM)burger Wrote:  Also, there are outcomes besides death that are really bad.  So the risk of harm is >> 1/100.

And even if you think it is, most of us presumably have something on the order of 50 people we'd really hate to die from this, and 1/100 chance for each of them is a 40% chance someone dies. I don't love those odds.

But yeah the whole comparison is asinine and betrays a deep misunderstanding of what's actually going on here.

RE: What will lifting Shelter-In-Place Before We’re Ready Look Like — We may find out - martyup - 04-17-2020

The Russian roulette analogy was not mine, it was Snorlax.   My modification of his profer assumed taking the bullet means death, not merely risk of harm.  1/100 is looking like the overall death rate from the virus in the USA.  My point is that lifting SiP is not like playing Russian roulette with a fully loaded gun.