Good news? - Printable Version
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Good news? - magnus - 03-31-2020
The Bay Area and WA both appear to be "underperforming" to projections. Still too early to be sure, but both areas show possible signs of flattening.
The Kaiser's new covid patient intake in Northern California has leveled off and WA's new patient count has actually decreased.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/30/bend-it-like-the-bay-area-doctors-see-flatter-curve-after-2-weeks-of-social-isolation-1269663
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/hospitalizations-for-covid-19-like-illness-declined-last-week-in-washington-offering-a-glimmer-of-hope/
Both areas reacted early to the virus. The bay area with the shelter at home and WA with large gatherings.
That said, both still expect a surge in the coming weeks
RE: Good news? - burger - 03-31-2020
(03-31-2020, 01:54 AM)magnus Wrote: The Bay Area and WA both appear to be "underperforming" to projections. Still too early to be sure, but both areas show possible signs of flattening.
The Kaiser's new covid patient intake in Northern California has leveled off and WA's new patient count has actually decreased.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/30/bend-it-like-the-bay-area-doctors-see-flatter-curve-after-2-weeks-of-social-isolation-1269663
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/hospitalizations-for-covid-19-like-illness-declined-last-week-in-washington-offering-a-glimmer-of-hope/
Both areas reacted early to the virus. The bay area with the shelter at home and WA with large gatherings.
That said, both still expect a surge in the coming weeks
Because testing is so inadequate, infected counts are pretty much the worst measure of this outbreak. My county in CA has 1.5 million people and is supposedly doing 50 tests a day still. They've been saying for weeks that more tests are coming--that's about as believable from the county officials as it was from Trump.
I would pay attention to deaths and hospital admissions. Those are stil imperfect but at least they're not limited by numbers of tests available.
RE: Good news? - stupac2 - 03-31-2020
I have to hear about Kaiser Oakland actually testing someone, but dozens of accounts of people with obvious symptoms being told they didn't qualify. I have, like, less than 0 confidence about numbers coming out the east bay right now (with the possible exception of Hayward, somehow).
RE: Good news? - burger - 03-31-2020
Newsom said yesterday that hospital admissions doubled in the previous four days, and ICU cases tripled. So we're still in the "climbing really fast" stage hospital-wise.
BTW, because cases take a couple of weeks or longer to get serious, hospital admissions are a trailing indicator of epidemic severity. So it will probably be weeks before things peak if the lockdown is working in CA. But day over day growth in hospital admissions should start slowing down well before the peak. That's the thing to look for.
RE: Good news? - M T - 03-31-2020
(03-31-2020, 09:26 AM)burger Wrote: BTW, because cases take a couple of weeks or longer to get serious, ...
The mean incubation time (infection to first symptom) is about 5 days.
If the disease progresses to severe (ie, pneumonia), that takes about another 5 days after symptoms (Table 3).
In China, where all who tested positive were sent to the hospital, their hospitalizations averaged 14.5 days if they were ever sent to the ICU or died.
RE: Good news? - BostonCard - 03-31-2020
Ironically, ER's in the Bay Area are seeing fewer than normal patients (patients who might otherwise go to the ER aren't, out of fear of coronavirus and trying to keep the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed, while the surge in patients hasn't (yet) materialized.
From the front lines:
https://brokeassstuart.com/2020/03/30/bay-area-curve-stays-flattened-ucsf-er-stays-quiet/
BC
RE: Good news? - Mick - 04-01-2020
Here's a list of things that used to cost $$$$ but are now free, including hundreds of online courses at various Ivies:
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/818670715/getting-bored-heres-a-list-of-free-things-that-werent-free-before-coronavirus
Thanks, NPR! Have to give a shoutout to NPR. Back when I had an advertising budget, I used to spend six figures annually underwriting NPR. And it was a solid investment.
RE: Good news? - BostonCard - 04-01-2020
Florida at long last orders a shelter in place.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/coronavirus-florida-de-santis-trump.html
I worry that the delay will have jeopardized thousands of Floridians. As of yesterday, they had over 6500 cases and 85 deaths, and the case numbers were growing at 15% a day.
BC
RE: Good news? - magnus - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 12:53 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Florida at long last orders a shelter in place.Unfortunately (for controlling this virus), attending church is considered an essential activity.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/coronavirus-florida-de-santis-trump.html
I worry that the delay will have jeopardized thousands of Floridians. As of yesterday, they had over 6500 cases and 85 deaths, and the case numbers were growing at 15% a day.
BC
RE: Good news? - burger - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 02:47 PM)magnus Wrote:(04-01-2020, 12:53 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Florida at long last orders a shelter in place.Unfortunately (for controlling this virus), attending church is considered an essential activity.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/coronavirus-florida-de-santis-trump.html
I worry that the delay will have jeopardized thousands of Floridians. As of yesterday, they had over 6500 cases and 85 deaths, and the case numbers were growing at 15% a day.
BC
France and South Korea already have had mass covid-19 spreading events associated with churches. I assume it's just a matter of time before we get the same in the US (though our testing is so shitty that it may have already been going on without authorities being aware)
Edit: I think there were a bunch of cases in an orthodox Jewish community in NY. Not sure if those were related to a temple service specifically vs other types of social contact.
Edit x2: My county (Sacramento) says 1/3 of their confirmed cases are related to churches. One church that's had a bunch of cases is still having in person services.
RE: Good news? - BostonCard - 04-01-2020
If Israel could ban gatherings for Passover, one would hope that Florida could see fit to limit church services.
BC
RE: Good news? - stupac2 - 04-01-2020
Churches are exempt through a large swath of the south and unless their prayers get answered there's going to be a lot of dead parishioners because of it. I understand the impulse behind it but man does it seem like walking open-eyed right into a disaster.
RE: Good news? - burger - 04-01-2020
Positive: in person Passover seders are not happening this year to avoid spreading the virus.
Negative: I don't have a good excuse to skip out on my uncle's Zoom seder.
RE: Good news? - BostonCard - 04-01-2020
Also, if Elijah comes, he better be wearing a mask and practicing social distancing.
BC
RE: Good news? - oldalum - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 03:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, if Elijah comes, he better be wearing a mask and practicing social distancing.My understanding is that you're supposed to supply the PPE at his place setting.
RE: Good news? - Mick - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 04:26 PM)oldalum Wrote:(04-01-2020, 03:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Also, if Elijah comes, he better be wearing a mask and practicing social distancing.My understanding is that you're supposed to supply the PPE at his place setting.
Distance learning and virtual masses in the San Jose diocese.
https://www.dsj.org/
RE: Good news? - Leftcoast - 04-01-2020
Not that anyone here is doing so but ... It would be wrong to cast churches as some sort of non-responsible, low-information disease spreaders because you saw a viral news report of one Florida church acting stupidly.
Setting aside people behaving badly in Florida, I haven't heard of ANY area church continuing to meet in person. This is Silicon Valley and folks are both tech savvy and following the pandemic closely so many cancelled their Sunday services long before businesses locked up and are now using the same tools companies use to stay in contact with their members. You can have your pick of Sunday morning Zoom broadcast services if such is your wish. The rethinking extends past Sunday morning to all meetings during the week.
The only continuing outside gatherings I've seen have been focused on getting food and other necessities to homeless and jobless populations hardest hit by the downturn in a safe and sound manner - In my case stocking community drop-in centers with food at night/early morning and helping them with basic needs (extra refrigerators, etc).
RE: Good news? - terry - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 05:51 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: Setting aside people behaving badly in Florida, I haven't heard of ANY area church continuing to meet in person. This is Silicon Valley and folks are both tech savvy and following the pandemic closely so many cancelled their Sunday services long before businesses locked up and are now using the same tools companies use to stay in contact with their members. You can have your pick of Sunday morning Zoom broadcast services if such is your wish.
Yes, exactly. The churches I know have decided that the best way to "love your neighbor" right now is to stay home and worship online, so that we don't infect our neighbor.
By the way, one thing I've noticed about online worship is that when the pastor doesn't have to look at the congregation in person, the sermon is more likely to run past the scheduled time. . . . :-)
RE: Good news? - BostonCard - 04-01-2020
Also, anyone who saw the pictures of beaches in Florida during spring break know that it's not just the churches that have promoted risky behavior.
BC
RE: Good news? - 82 Card - 04-01-2020
(04-01-2020, 03:02 PM)burger Wrote: Edit x2: My county (Sacramento) says 1/3 of their confirmed cases are related to churches. One church that's had a bunch of cases is still having in person services.
Perhaps some uniformed representatives of the county need to discuss the requirements of the county health officer's order with the pastor, with hand cuffs if necessary. The order does not exempt churches.