The tsunami is about to hit - Printable Version

The tsunami is about to hit - Printable Version

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The tsunami is about to hit - OutsiderFan - 03-24-2020

The World is now doubling confirmed cases every three days. The U.S. is also doubling every three days.

We are over 53,000 confirmed cases on March 24. At this rate, we will have:

- 150,000 by Friday March 27
- 300,000 by Monday March 30
- 1,000,000 by April 2
- 2,000,000 by April 6
- 4,000,000 by April 9
- 8,000,000 by April 12
- 16,000,000 by April 15
- 32,000,000 by April 18
- 64,000,000 by April 21
- 128,000,000 by April 24 (One month from when this was posted)
- 256,000,000 by April 27

Now, will this rate of doubling every three days continue? Are the measures to shut things down enough? Italy acted late and didn't do enough, and by all accounts we waited longer and have done less than Italy to react. I can't believe how many people I still see driving around here.

If we are on this course, we are totally and completely F*cked. With a CFR of 2% that's over 5,000,000 dead by end of May. We'll have herd immunity by then, but how many health care workers will we have lost? How many people will have died from non Covid-19 maladies?

Have we done enough to flatten the growth curve? You can see just looking at these numbers that if we do flatten it, this thing will easily last through May and very much through June in gigantic numbers.

There is simply no way in hell China only had 80,000 cases. I'm guessing they had well over 10x this amount.

We've gone from under 1,000 reported cases on March 10 to over 53,000 in just two weeks. I just don't think we are ready for what is happening because I don't think many people can believe it will happen.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - BostonCard - 03-24-2020

At this rate, we will have:
512 million iinfected by April 30 in a country with a population of only 330 million.

I would not assume that the doubling rate will stay constant.

BC

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - burger - 03-24-2020

If the virus was given free reign (like the experiment currently under way in Florida), the resulting curve for the number of cases would be logistic (s-shaped). As, say, 50-60-70% of people get infected, herd immunity would reduce the spread, and there would just be fewer people to get infected. So the rate slows down.

These exponential projections are really only accurate for the first half of the population. In fact, I think exponential growth ceases and switches to geometric(or maybe something else? can't recall now) around the 1/3 of population.

Anyway, don't go projecting too far in the future.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-24-2020

Wouldn't the significant increase in testing have something to do with the numbers?

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - BostonCard - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 04:12 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Wouldn't the significant increase in testing have something to do with the numbers?

The problem is that the proportion of positive patients has remained constant, which is not what you would expect if more testing availability were driving it. Basically, if you are limited by testing availability, then you would expect a very high proportion of positive tests (only the individuals with the highest risk are tested). As testing availability improves, the criteria for testing is relaxed and you are more likely to test people without coronavirus, which, in turn lowers the proportion of positive patients.

Basically, right now the ramp up in testing has coincided with an equally fast ramp up in cases.

BC

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 04:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 04:12 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: Wouldn't the significant increase in testing have something to do with the numbers?

The problem is that the proportion of positive patients has remained constant, which is not what you would expect if more testing availability were driving it. Basically, if you are limited by testing availability, then you would expect a very high proportion of positive tests (only the individuals with the highest risk are tested). As testing availability improves, the criteria for testing is relaxed and you are more likely to test people without coronavirus, which, in turn lowers the proportion of positive patients.

Basically, right now the ramp up in testing has coincided with an equally fast ramp up in cases.

BC

Agree with you regarding the proportion. Still, significantly increasing the number of tests will have an impact on the doubling calculations, right?

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - magnus - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 03:21 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I just don't think we are ready for what is happening because I don't think many people can believe it will happen.

Unfortunately, so true. Not only in our government (at all levels), but also in our hospitals where there are still hospitals with clinics open using up valuable PPE resources. And of course the layperson.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - oldalum - 03-24-2020

seems like deaths due to coronavirus in the U.S. would be a more reliable but lagging indicator, although made more complicated to interpret by any unavailability of testing and by any differences in population age distributions (e.g., Florida). Has anyone seen a plot of daily deaths for the U.S.? Are the numbers still too small to learn anything solid from it?

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - magnus - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 05:11 PM)oldalum Wrote: Has anyone seen a plot of daily deaths for the U.S.? Are the numbers still too small to learn anything solid from it?

You can find one against the other countries at financial times

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

We're about to pass Iran's curve.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 05:17 PM)magnus Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:11 PM)oldalum Wrote: Has anyone seen a plot of daily deaths for the U.S.? Are the numbers still too small to learn anything solid from it?
You can find one against the other countries at financial times

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

We're about to pass Iran's curve.

Not sure I'd trust the numbers coming out of Iran or China.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - Snorlax94 - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 05:24 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:17 PM)magnus Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:11 PM)oldalum Wrote: Has anyone seen a plot of daily deaths for the U.S.? Are the numbers still too small to learn anything solid from it?
You can find one against the other countries at financial times

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

We're about to pass Iran's curve.

Not sure I'd trust the numbers coming out of Iran or China.

Their testing difficulties and failures can be no worse than ours.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 05:34 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:24 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:17 PM)magnus Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:11 PM)oldalum Wrote: Has anyone seen a plot of daily deaths for the U.S.? Are the numbers still too small to learn anything solid from it?
You can find one against the other countries at financial times

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

We're about to pass Iran's curve.

Not sure I'd trust the numbers coming out of Iran or China.
Their testing difficulties and failures can be no worse than ours.

Funny guy.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - akiddoc - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 05:46 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:34 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:24 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:17 PM)magnus Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:11 PM)oldalum Wrote: Has anyone seen a plot of daily deaths for the U.S.? Are the numbers still too small to learn anything solid from it?
You can find one against the other countries at financial times

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

We're about to pass Iran's curve.

Not sure I'd trust the numbers coming out of Iran or China.
Their testing difficulties and failures can be no worse than ours.
Funny guy.

Snorlax is correct. Our numbers are no more dependable than China's. Actually, with our limited testing, they are less dependable. We get that you discount everything the Chinese say and do. But so far they have done a much better job than we have.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 06:24 PM)akiddoc Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:46 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:34 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:24 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 05:17 PM)magnus Wrote: You can find one against the other countries at financial times

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

We're about to pass Iran's curve.

Not sure I'd trust the numbers coming out of Iran or China.
Their testing difficulties and failures can be no worse than ours.
Funny guy.

Snorlax is correct. Our numbers are no more dependable than China's. Actually, with our limited testing, they are less dependable. We get that you discount everything the Chinese say and do. But so far they have done a much better job than we have.

Do you really think the numbers that are being reported in the US are less dependable than the numbers from Iran and China? Geez, even Outsider Fan in the original post in this thread estimated that the Chinese number was 10x the total of 80k cases. Didn't see him getting called out for questioning the numbers. Similarly, saw a post somewhere on the board that the Iranians we digging mass graves so large, you could see them from space. . . .

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - OutsiderFan - 03-24-2020

On number accuracy, Italy’s top health official said he believes they likely have 10x the cases reported. Given how many more people China has than Italy, their numbers are truly unbelievably small, without even accounting for a 10x underreporting of them. China had its first reported case in December and did nothing to stop spread for six weeks. Knowing what we know about the RO of SARS-CoV-2, and how much people were traveling, it seems dubious China had fewer cases than th U.S. will soon have.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - magnus - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 07:54 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 06:24 PM)akiddoc Wrote: Snorlax is correct. Our numbers are no more dependable than China's. Actually, with our limited testing, they are less dependable. We get that you discount everything the Chinese say and do. But so far they have done a much better job than we have.

Do you really think the numbers that are being reported in the US are less dependable than the numbers from Iran and China? Geez, even Outsider Fan in the original post in this thread estimated that the Chinese number was 10x the total of 80k cases. Didn't see him getting called out for questioning the numbers. Similarly, saw a post somewhere on the board that the Iranians we digging mass graves so large, you could see them from space. . . .

A week or two ago, when things were ramping up in the US, many infectious disease experts were saying that we likely had 5x-10x what was being reported (though with a high range of error). There was even the Ohio governor saying that his public health advisor said they had 100K cases already after having 1 death reported (while this was quickly challenged by many experts...one can't argue with the results, as it definitely gave the Ohio governor a good excuse to take action early).

Anyway, it's hard to put much faith in any numbers that are out there. The best truth out there...the numbers are very under reported, regardless of country. =(

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - Goose - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 04:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The problem is that the proportion of positive patients has remained constant, which is not what you would expect if more testing availability were driving it. Basically, if you are limited by testing availability, then you would expect a very high proportion of positive tests (only the individuals with the highest risk are tested). As testing availability improves, the criteria for testing is relaxed and you are more likely to test people without coronavirus, which, in turn lowers the proportion of positive patients.

Basically, right now the ramp up in testing has coincided with an equally fast ramp up in cases.

BC

The question I have is why is the percentage of those tested that report positive so LOW? With the restrictive criteria that we have, we should be heavily biased toward positive results. I haven't been able to find up-to-date figures, but what I can find is in the 10% to 25% range.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - 2006alum - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 09:34 PM)Goose Wrote: The question I have is why is the percentage of those tested that report positive so LOW? With the restrictive criteria that we have, we should be heavily biased toward positive results. I haven't been able to find up-to-date figures, but what I can find is in the 10% to 25% range.

Believe it or not, the percentage infected of percentage tested in the US is quite high compared to everywhere else:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1242406560577597440?s=20[/tweet]

The problem is that we are using testing to confirm the cause of symptoms, not to prevent new infections. Until we we test far and wide, testing is used more to assist doctors in treatment than in prevention. Here's an absolutely fantastic thread on why we are a long way off on testing, and on other things we should think about:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1242584823958470656?s=20[/tweet]

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - cardcrimson - 03-24-2020

(03-24-2020, 09:49 PM)2006alum Wrote: Believe it or not, the percentage infected of percentage tested in the US is quite high compared to everywhere else:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1242406560577597440?s=20[/tweet]

Wow. Testing sick people gives you a higher percentage of positives than when testing both healthy and sick people. Who would have thought that.

RE: The tsunami is about to hit - Goose - 03-24-2020

The low Korean numbers show clearly the limitations of testing, of which they are well aware. Contact tracing and quarantine are what works, in the end. Even when we are testing only ostensibly "sick" people, we are seeing 70% as not (yet) sick. What do you do? Tell those people to go home and have a nice day? Not if you want to stop this thing. That is not what Korea does, that is not what Singapore did, and that is not what China did. We are going to need some serious isolation of people who are "probable" spreaders of the virus. Right now, we are in a "semi quarantine", which probably leaks a lot. When we get to the point we are able, we need to go to more active measures. We aren't yet at the point that would be possible even in the best case. I sure hope we are getting prepared to do so. I haven't seen it yet.