Prediction: We will be worse hit than Italy - Printable Version

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Prediction: We will be worse hit than Italy - OutsiderFan - 03-19-2020

The news this morning is driving home why I felt three weeks ago the U.S. would be the worst hit country in terms of lives and treasure lost.

Just this morning I have seen:

- Reporting on how 100% testing the northern Italy town of Vo's 3,000 residents and isolating infected has led to yesterday no new cases.
- Reporting on how the Chinese effectively separated people infected in hospitals and had strict PPE protocols.
- Reporting on family spread - people living together - accounted for 80% of Chinas cases.
- Reporting on how masks are being stolen from hospitals.
- Reporting on how medical professionals don't have the PPE needed to give tests even if they have testing ability.
- Reporting on how we don't have enough cotton swabs to do tests in some places.
- Email from my doctor's hospital telling me to stay home if I'm sick and call my doctor, with ZERO word about testing.

We might actually be better off nuking cities to cut off limbs that need resources we can't afford to provide everyone, than taking the entire country down. Sorry to be so moribund, but it's impossible to fight big wars on all fronts with limited resources and win on any of them. We can't win on any one if we don't give up some very big things. This is a reality we all must grasp. It's going to get very bad and we are going to cry a lot.

My guess last Sunday was the U.S. would have 12k cases by 3/21.  Today we will pass 10k confirmed, and this is with terrible testing; not only are people showing symptoms not able to be tested, we are doing ZERO surveillance testing of people not showing symptoms. We are going to be way worse than Italy. Expect nation-wide lockdown any day now.

I don't say this stuff to be some sort of Debbie Downer, but rather to help people reading this prepare emotionally for what is coming.  It's better to be ready for the worst and it end up not being as bad, than be shocked and paralyzed when faced with calamity.

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RE: Prediction: We will be worse hit than Italy - burger - 03-19-2020

I have trouble disagreeing with most of what you said.

Spatial and temporal variability in testing makes the number of cases a less than great indicator of what's happening.  Deaths may be a better measure, and they're accelerating.

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RE: Prediction: We will be worse hit than Italy - chrisk - 03-19-2020

OF,

I am having trouble connecting the points you cite as leading to the conclusion that the US will be hurt worse than Italy. Of course, the US is much larger and could well end up with more total cases than Italy, but could end up with far fewer on a per capita basis.

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RE: Prediction: We will be worse hit than Italy - Mick - 03-19-2020

(03-19-2020, 06:32 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  The news this morning is driving home why I felt three weeks ago the U.S. would be the worst hit country in terms of lives and treasure lost.

Disagree in terms of lives lost, given the herculean efforts this society is making.

Treasure lost...oh yeah.  I've been saying this for months now, that our draconian efforts will ruin this country.  The National Restaurant Association says they will lose 5-7 million jobs just in the next three months.  I think we will lose our viability as a country, tell you the truth.

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RE: Prediction: We will be worse hit than Italy - akiddoc - 03-19-2020

Italy has a very dense population. Americans are more spread out. I'm guessing our infection and death rate will be lower. 

That doesn't mean it won't be disastrous. A vast number of Americans are not taking this seriously. Even doctors who should have known better have exposed hundreds of colleagues. The behavior of college students in Florida and the state authorities in Florida is ridiculous. 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/albertsamaha/coronavirus-doctor-tested-positive-conference-nyc-covid19

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/19/florida-wont-close-its-beaches-heres-exactly-what-desantis-said-about-that-1268185

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RE: Prediction: We will be worse hit than Italy - Farm93 - 03-19-2020

Stay at home now the rule of our State. 

It sure would have been nice to spend a few dollars per person on Coronavirus testing in February, or to have a fully staffed department in the federal government working on global pandemics.

Penny wise....pound...errrr...trillions of dollars foolish.

Oh well, we are where we are.   Healthcare system is already overloaded with the known cases.   The ~10 day lag in case presentation at hospitals would imply our healthcare systems will be forced to pick survivors early in April. 

Try to stay healthy everyone, or at least avoid getting the virus for a few months.

Sigh....

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RE: Prediction: We will be worse hit than Italy - BostonCard - 03-19-2020

(03-19-2020, 04:10 PM)Mick Wrote:  

(03-19-2020, 06:32 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  The news this morning is driving home why I felt three weeks ago the U.S. would be the worst hit country in terms of lives and treasure lost.

Disagree in terms of lives lost, given the herculean efforts this society is making.

Treasure lost...oh yeah.  I've been saying this for months now, that our draconian efforts will ruin this country.  The National Restaurant Association says they will lose 5-7 million jobs just in the next three months.  I think we will lose our viability as a country, tell you the truth.

Goldman is predicting that initial unemployment claims will be... 2.5 million.  By way of comparison, at the peak of the financial crisis, they were only 600,000.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/michaelsderby/status/1240805923389669377?s=21[/tweet]

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